−1 pp
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 at any point in July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.86mResolution: 1 August 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve leave interest rates unchanged after its September 2026 meeting?
Happens
45%
price $0.45
Does not happen
55%
price $0.55
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.75mResolution: 16 September 2026 - Hot−0.1 pp
Will Donald Trump be out as US President by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.73mResolution: 31 July 2026 - +3.3 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
50%
price $0.50
Does not happen
50%
price $0.50
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.62mResolution: 31 October 2026 - −0.1 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?
Happens
82%
price $0.82
Does not happen
18%
price $0.18
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.60mResolution: 31 December 2026 - +11.2 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.58mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in the 2026 US midterms?
Happens
44%
price $0.44
Does not happen
56%
price $0.56
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$2.23mResolution: 3 November 2026 Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.07mResolution: 31 December 2026- −0.5 pp
Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.03mResolution: 31 December 2026 - −0.3 pp
Will Ethereum fall to $1,500 or lower before the end of 2026?
Happens
44%
price $0.44
Does not happen
56%
price $0.56
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.95mResolution: 1 January 2027 - −0.5 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.80mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi become Iran's head of state or government in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.80mResolution: 1 January 2027 - −1.6 pp
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Happens
29%
price $0.29
Does not happen
71%
price $0.71
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.72mResolution: 30 April 2027 - −1 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
39%
price $0.39
Does not happen
61%
price $0.61
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.58mResolution: 1 January 2027 - +0.4 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railway station by the end of 2026?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.53mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.51mResolution: 1 January 2027 - −0.6 pp
Will the US buy at least part of Greenland before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.46mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Polymarket launch an official platform token by 31 December 2026?
Happens
21%
price $0.21
Does not happen
79%
price $0.79
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$1.37mResolution: 1 July 2027 - +0.1 pp
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for governor of Florida in 2026?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.36mResolution: 3 November 2026 - −1 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.33mResolution: 1 October 2026 - −3 pp
Will Mitch McConnell resign from the Senate before the 2026 midterms?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.32mResolution: 3 November 2026 - +3 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.24mResolution: 31 December 2026 - −7.9 pp
Will OpenSea launch a token by 31 December 2026?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$1.24mResolution: 1 January 2027 - +0.2 pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by 30 September 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.22mResolution: 30 September 2026 - −16 pp
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
Happens
59%
price $0.59
Does not happen
41%
price $0.41
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.21mResolution: 11 August 2027 - Hot+0.1 pp
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.20mResolution: 31 July 2026 - 0 pp
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.17mResolution: 1 August 2026 Will China and Japan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.16mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Netflix release a new episode of Stranger Things by 31 December 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.10mResolution: 31 December 2026 - +0.1 pp
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.09mResolution: 13 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law in the United States before 1 January 2027?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.08mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Mercedes win the 2026 Formula 1 Constructors' Championship?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.03mResolution: 6 December 2026- −0.5 pp
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$998.6kResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before July 2027?
Happens
56%
price $0.56
Does not happen
44%
price $0.44
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$941.8kResolution: 1 July 2027 - 0 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market cap at the end of 2026?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$904.6kResolution: 31 December 2026 - −1 pp
Will Paramount Complete a Takeover of Warner Bros. Before July 2027?
Happens
30%
price $0.30
Does not happen
70%
price $0.70
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$895.2kResolution: 1 July 2027