Will Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin move in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.98mResolution: 1 January 2027
Events
Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.57mResolution: 10 October 2026Which team will win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
Happens
26%
price $0.26
Does not happen
74%
price $0.74
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.35mResolution: 1 November 2026Will Alexander Zverev beat Karen Khachanov at the 2026 US Open?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.16mResolution: 18 September 2026Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Happens
19%
price $0.19
Does not happen
81%
price $0.81
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.99mResolution: 19 December 2026Will Karen Khachanov beat Alexander Blockx at the 2026 US Open?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.91mResolution: 16 September 2026Will California pass a one-time billionaire wealth tax in the November 2026 election?
Happens
31%
price $0.31
Does not happen
69%
price $0.69
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.73mResolution: 3 November 2026- 0 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market cap on 31 July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.60mResolution: 31 July 2026 - 0 pp
Who will win the 2026 American League MVP award?
Happens
89%
price $0.89
Does not happen
11%
price $0.11
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.57mResolution: 8 December 2026 Did Coco Gauff defeat Mirra Andreeva in their 2026 US Open match?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.36mResolution: 15 September 2026Will China and Taiwan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.35mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Mitch McConnell resign from the Senate before the 2026 midterms?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.26mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will LeBron James retire before the 2026-27 NBA season starts?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.25mResolution: 31 October 2026 Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy cease to be President of Ukraine by the end of 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.18mResolution: 31 December 2026Will the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 30 September 2026?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.17mResolution: 1 October 2026Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 at any point in August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.09mResolution: 1 September 2026- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.00mResolution: 1 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.85mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Taylor Fritz beat Brandon Nakashima at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
65%
price $0.65
Does not happen
35%
price $0.35
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.85mResolution: 28 August 2026Will Donald Trump leave office as US President before 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.83mResolution: 1 September 2026- 0 pp
Will Donald Trump be out as US President by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.75mResolution: 31 July 2026 Will Ukraine recapture any territory in Crimea by 31 December 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.75mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.73mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship for the 2026 season?
Happens
15%
price $0.15
Does not happen
85%
price $0.85
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.73mResolution: 23 February 2027 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.69mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will the Democrats win control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
Happens
53%
price $0.53
Does not happen
47%
price $0.47
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.62mResolution: 3 November 2026Will Novak Djokovic beat Thiago Agustin Tirante at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.60mResolution: 22 August 2026- 0 pp
Will Ethereum fall to $1,500 or lower before the end of 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.59mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Jeffrey Epstein be confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.57mResolution: 31 December 2026Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 15 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.51mResolution: 15 September 2026Will Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed beat the hardcore Minecraft challenge by 17 August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.43mResolution: 17 August 2026- 0 pp
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Happens
34%
price $0.34
Does not happen
66%
price $0.66
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.42mResolution: 30 April 2027 Will the Fed's target interest rate be at or above four and a half percent at the end of 2026?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.41mResolution: 9 December 2026Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.39mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.30mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
69%
price $0.69
Does not happen
31%
price $0.31
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.30mResolution: 31 December 2026