0 pp
Will the US government confirm that extraterrestrial life exists before 2027?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$66.21mActual outcome: No
Events
- 0 pp
Who will win the 2026 World Series?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$40.48mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$22.14mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be President of Russia by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$21.15mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$12.03mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Polymarket launch an official platform token by 31 December 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$11.99mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Championship?
Happens
91%
price $0.91
Does not happen
9%
price $0.09
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.87mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by 31 December 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.47mActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.30mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
60%
price $0.60
Does not happen
40%
price $0.40
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.16mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.33mActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 at any point in July 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.21mActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.62mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.53mActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.46mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 9 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.36mActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.24mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will There Be a Direct Military Clash Between NATO and Russia by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.12mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.95mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.54mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Iran formally announce its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the United States by 15 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.53mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.51mActual outcome: No Will Byron Donalds Win the 2026 Republican Primary for Florida Governor?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.50mActual outcome: YesWill the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 22 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.48mActual outcome: NoWill WTI crude oil hit $90 per barrel at any point in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.46mActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.24mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law in the United States before 1 January 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.20mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the US Senate hold a recorded vote on the CLARITY Act before 8 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.10mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by 31 December 2026?
Happens
39%
price $0.39
Does not happen
61%
price $0.61
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$892.3kActual outcome: No Which team will win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
Happens
46%
price $0.46
Does not happen
54%
price $0.54
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$868.8kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Iran invade Kuwait by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$847.8kActual outcome: No Will another official GTA VI trailer be released by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$798.7kActual outcome: NoWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$738.6kActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will Ethereum's price reach $2,000 at any point in July 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$724.4kActual outcome: No Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding to Georgina Rodrรญguez?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$677.3kActual outcome: NoWill WTI Crude Oil Hit $110 a Barrel in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$664.3kActual outcome: No