0 pp
Will the United States launch a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$65.92mResolution: 1 January 2027
Events
- 0 pp
Will the Fed leave interest rates unchanged at its July 2026 meeting?
Happens
87%
price $0.87
Does not happen
13%
price $0.13
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$64.48mResolution: 29 July 2026 - 0 pp
Will China launch a military invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$41.34mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve leave interest rates unchanged after its September 2026 meeting?
Happens
21%
price $0.21
Does not happen
79%
price $0.79
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$38.76mResolution: 16 September 2026 - 0 pp
Who will be Israel's next prime minister after the 2026 election?
Happens
53%
price $0.53
Does not happen
47%
price $0.47
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$36.97mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the United States take sovereignty over Greenland before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$35.44mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will US tech layoffs be higher in 2026 than in 2025?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$31.47mResolution: 1 March 2027 - 0 pp
Will Bitcoin close 2026 above $100,000?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$28.58mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Iran's regime fall before 2027?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$25.87mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will OpenSea's token have a fully diluted valuation above $1 billion one day after launch?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$22.44mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will MetaMask's token be worth more than $1 billion one day after launch?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$20.14mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the WHO declare a hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$18.21mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Polymarket move its platform to a new blockchain in 2026?
Happens
22%
price $0.22
Does not happen
78%
price $0.78
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$17.76mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?
Happens
86%
price $0.86
Does not happen
14%
price $0.14
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$17.41mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Who will win the 2026 college football Heisman Trophy?
Happens
16%
price $0.16
Does not happen
84%
price $0.84
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$16.98mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) be signed into law in 2026?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$15.76mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Base launch its own token by 31 December 2026?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$14.59mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law before 4 January 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$13.31mResolution: 4 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$13.21mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.18mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
Happens
48%
price $0.48
Does not happen
52%
price $0.52
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$10.94mResolution: 4 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least once in 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$10.79mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for governor of Florida in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$10.76mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in the 2026 US midterms?
Happens
51%
price $0.51
Does not happen
49%
price $0.49
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$10.72mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will United Russia gain the most seats of any party in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election?
Happens
80%
price $0.80
Does not happen
20%
price $0.20
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$9.94mResolution: 30 September 2026 - 0 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$9.94mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will Ethereum be priced above $3,000 at the end of 2026?
Happens
33%
price $0.33
Does not happen
67%
price $0.67
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$9.80mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in 2026?
Happens
85%
price $0.85
Does not happen
15%
price $0.15
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$9.21mResolution: 9 December 2026 Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.96mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.64mResolution: 10 October 2026- 0 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran's de facto head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.48mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Unitree Robotics' IPO closing market cap exceed ยฅ400 billion in 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$6.23mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will GameStop Acquire eBay Before 2027?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$6.13mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Islam Makhachev beat Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.74mResolution: 16 August 2026- 0 pp
Will OpenSea launch a token by 31 December 2026?
Happens
16%
price $0.16
Does not happen
84%
price $0.84
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$5.59mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Republicans control both the House and Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.39mResolution: 1 February 2027