How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is signed into law by 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and at $0 if it is not. The price at any moment is simply what buyers and sellers currently agree the chance of that looks like — a contract priced at 0.30, for example, would mean the market sees roughly a three-in-ten chance, not a guarantee either way. That price moves constantly as new information arrives, and a position bought today can typically be sold before 31 December 2026 at whatever price the market has moved to by then, rather than being held to settlement.
Yes23%
No77%
Probability
How the price has moved
The contract was first recorded on 29 July 2026 at 71% and initially traded in a range of 69% to 74%, consistent with a market that opened expecting passage this year to be more likely than not. It then fell sharply to around 26%, a drop of roughly 45 percentage points, and has held flat there over the most recent 24 hours with no further movement. With only 29 price observations recorded and all volume ($3,368,584) concentrated on a single venue, the swing likely reflects the market still finding its level on a newly listed question rather than a slow accumulation of information; the specific trigger for the drop is not identified in the available data.
Analysis
Context
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, H.R.3633, sets out which federal regulator — the SEC or the CFTC — oversees which digital assets, and under what conditions a token counts as a security versus a commodity. It is the House's answer to a decade of ad hoc crypto enforcement through litigation rather than statute. The bill's House passage was itself a repeat of a familiar pattern: in May 2024 the previous Congress passed a similar market-structure bill, the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), out of the House, only to see it stall in the Senate with no floor vote before the Congress ended.
H.R.3633 now faces the same bottleneck. The Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee share jurisdiction over different pieces of digital asset regulation, and the two committees have not yet produced a single reconciled bill that both chambers can pass in identical form. Under the resolution rule for this market, only a signature into law by 31 December 2026 counts; a bill that passes the Senate in January 2027 or later resolves this question No regardless of what happens afterward.
This market is unusually young: it was first recorded on 29 July 2026, only one day before this page was written, and has accumulated just 29 price observations and $3,368,584 in trading volume, all of it on a single venue, Polymarket. That combination — a brand-new listing with a small number of trades — helps explain the size of the move rather than the direction of it. The contract opened at 71%, traded in a range of 69% to 74% for part of its first day, then fell steeply to the current level near 26%, where it has held flat over the most recent 24 hours with a change of 0.0 percentage points. A price that swings roughly 45 points in under two days and then goes completely still is a market that initially priced this as likely, absorbed some reason to doubt that, and has now settled — for the moment — on a much more skeptical view.
The legislative mechanics support that skepticism. H.R.3633 has to pass the Senate in a form that matches the House text, or the two chambers have to reconcile differing versions, before anything can go to the president's desk. The Senate has not yet advanced a companion bill through both Banking and Agriculture in identical language, and 2026 is a midterm election year: floor time in September and October is typically consumed by appropriations fights and campaign scheduling, and the November 2026 elections leave only a lame-duck session in December to close the gap before the 31 December deadline. The FIT21 precedent is directly relevant here — a House-passed crypto market-structure bill died in the Senate without a vote in the previous Congress, and nothing about this Congress's calendar guarantees a different outcome.
Because only one venue is currently pricing this question, there is no cross-venue spread to read for disagreement, and the flat 24-hour move suggests traders are, for now, in agreement at the current level rather than actively repricing. The sharp initial drop from the low-70s follows no single publicly reported trigger available here; what can be said plainly is that whatever information or reasoning drove it happened fast, within the market's first day, and has not reversed.
What moves the probability
Senate committee split
Jurisdiction over digital asset rules is divided between the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee, and no single reconciled bill has cleared both. Until that happens, there is no Senate text to send to a floor vote, which pushes the probability of a 2026 signature down.
Midterm election calendar
The November 2026 midterms compress the legislative calendar in the second half of the year, leaving a short lame-duck window in December as the last realistic chance to finish before the 31 December deadline. Less floor time available structurally lowers the odds of passage this year.
FIT21 precedent
A comparable House-passed crypto market-structure bill, FIT21, cleared the House in May 2024 but never received a Senate floor vote before that Congress ended. That direct precedent gives the market a concrete reason to discount House passage as a strong signal of eventual enactment.
House passage already secured
H.R.3633 has already cleared the House, which is the harder chamber for this kind of bill to pass given competing committee interests; that removes one stage of legislative risk and is the main factor keeping the probability above near-zero.
Hard settlement deadline
The market resolves No if signature comes after 31 December 2026, even by a single day, so any Senate delay into January 2027 has the same effect on this contract as the bill failing outright.
The case for
- The bill has already passed the House, removing one full chamber of legislative risk.
- A reconciled Senate Banking–Agriculture text could still reach the floor in the September–December 2026 window.
- Industry pressure for a clear regulatory perimeter for digital asset exchanges gives both parties an incentive to finish the bill before the midterm cycle ends.
- A lame-duck session in December 2026 has historically been used to pass unfinished priority legislation before a Congress's business carries over.
The case against
- The Senate has not yet produced a single reconciled bill from its two relevant committees as of the date this page was written.
- The 2026 midterm elections on 3 November will consume floor time in the months immediately before the deadline.
- The prior comparable bill, FIT21, passed the House in 2024 and then died in the Senate without a vote, showing this exact bottleneck has occurred before.
- The settlement rule requires signature by 31 December 2026, so any slippage into January 2027 counts as a No regardless of how close the bill gets.
What to watch
Key dates ahead include any Senate Banking Committee or Senate Agriculture Committee markup session on H.R.3633 or a companion bill, a floor vote schedule announcement from Senate leadership, the August 2026 congressional recess (which pauses floor action), the return to session in September, the 3 November 2026 midterm elections, and any lame-duck session activity in December 2026 ahead of the 31 December 11:59 PM ET deadline. A committee vote or a scheduled floor date would be the clearest concrete signal for this market.
Trade this contract
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