0 pp
Will Apple be the world's second-largest company by market cap on 31 July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$232.3kActual outcome: No
Archive
- 0 pp
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$276.9kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railroad station by 31 July 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$290.5kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.24mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Ethereum's price reach $2,000 at any point in July 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$724.4kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 at any point in July 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.21mActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before 1 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$646.2kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.46mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.30mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the US Senate hold a recorded vote on the CLARITY Act before 8 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.10mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 9 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.36mActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.95mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.53mActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will Iran formally announce its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the United States by 15 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.53mActual outcome: No Will Byron Donalds Win the 2026 Republican Primary for Florida Governor?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.50mActual outcome: YesWill the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 22 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.48mActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.33mActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will There Be a Direct Military Clash Between NATO and Russia by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.12mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the US announce it is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear ceasefire negotiations by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$472.6kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on LMArena at the end of August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$526.7kActual outcome: No Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$738.6kActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$22.14mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.54mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.51mActual outcome: No Will Ethereum (ETH) reach $2,000 at any point in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$341.0kActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will Iran invade Kuwait by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$847.8kActual outcome: No Will another official GTA VI trailer be released by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$798.7kActual outcome: NoWill WTI crude oil hit $140 per barrel in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$407.0kActual outcome: NoWill WTI crude oil fall to $65 a barrel at any point in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$484.6kActual outcome: NoWill WTI Crude Oil Hit $110 a Barrel in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$664.3kActual outcome: NoWill Alibaba have the top-ranked Chinese AI model on the Chimera Arena leaderboard at the end of August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$266.1kActual outcome: NoWill Ethereum's price dip to $1,800 or below in August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$593.6kActual outcome: YesWill WTI Crude Oil Hit $150 a Barrel in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$471.2kActual outcome: NoWill WTI crude oil hit $90 per barrel at any point in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.46mActual outcome: NoWill Rodri Join Barcelona Before September 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$330.3kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Vinicius Junior remain at Real Madrid through the 2026 summer transfer window?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$474.3kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's US Open?
Happens
56%
price $0.56
Does not happen
44%
price $0.44
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$389.5kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$517.0kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 to the general public by September 30, 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$580.6kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
62%
price $0.62
Does not happen
38%
price $0.38
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.11mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Who will win the 2026 World Series?
Happens
54%
price $0.54
Does not happen
46%
price $0.46
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$40.35mActual outcome: No Which team will win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
Happens
47%
price $0.47
Does not happen
53%
price $0.53
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$862.5kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Championship?
Happens
86%
price $0.86
Does not happen
14%
price $0.14
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.77mActual outcome: No Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding to Georgina Rodrรญguez?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$677.3kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$225.6kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the US government confirm that extraterrestrial life exists before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$66.06mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$473.8kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend of any movie released in 2026?
Happens
48%
price $0.48
Does not happen
52%
price $0.52
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$340.6kActual outcome: No