Archive

0 pp
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.24mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$276.9kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railroad station by 31 July 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$290.5kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Apple be the world's second-largest company by market cap on 31 July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$232.3kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 at any point in July 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.21mActual outcome: Yes
0 pp
Will Ethereum's price reach $2,000 at any point in July 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$724.4kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before 1 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$646.2kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.46mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.30mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will the US Senate hold a recorded vote on the CLARITY Act before 8 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.10mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 9 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.36mActual outcome: Yes
0 pp
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.95mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Iran formally announce its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the United States by 15 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.53mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.53mActual outcome: Yes
Will Byron Donalds Win the 2026 Republican Primary for Florida Governor?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.50mActual outcome: Yes
Will the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 22 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.48mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.33mActual outcome: Yes
Will WTI crude oil hit $90 per barrel at any point in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.46mActual outcome: No
Will WTI Crude Oil Hit $150 a Barrel in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$471.2kActual outcome: No
Will WTI crude oil hit $140 per barrel in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$407.0kActual outcome: No
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$738.6kActual outcome: Yes
Will another official GTA VI trailer be released by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$798.7kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$22.14mActual outcome: No
Will Ethereum (ETH) reach $2,000 at any point in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$341.0kActual outcome: Yes
Will WTI crude oil fall to $65 a barrel at any point in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$484.6kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will There Be a Direct Military Clash Between NATO and Russia by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.12mActual outcome: No
Will WTI Crude Oil Hit $110 a Barrel in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$664.3kActual outcome: No
Will Ethereum's price dip to $1,800 or below in August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$593.6kActual outcome: Yes
0 pp
Will the US announce it is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear ceasefire negotiations by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$472.6kActual outcome: No
Will Alibaba have the top-ranked Chinese AI model on the Chimera Arena leaderboard at the end of August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$266.1kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.51mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.54mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Iran invade Kuwait by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$847.8kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on LMArena at the end of August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$526.7kActual outcome: No
Will Rodri Join Barcelona Before September 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$330.3kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Vinicius Junior remain at Real Madrid through the 2026 summer transfer window?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$474.3kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$517.0kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's US Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$599.2kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve leave interest rates unchanged after its September 2026 meeting?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$56.61mActual outcome: No
Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 25 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$734.2kActual outcome: Yes
0 pp
Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$801.1kActual outcome: No
Will the New York Yankees beat the Arizona Diamondbacks?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$940.4kActual outcome: Arizona Diamondbacks
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.34mActual outcome: Yes
0 pp
Will United Russia gain the most seats of any party in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$24.48mActual outcome: No
Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.45mActual outcome: Yes
Will the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 30 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.59mActual outcome: No
Will Google Release Gemini 4.0 by 30 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$644.2kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 to the general public by September 30, 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$580.6kActual outcome: No

Archive

Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of July 2026?

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railroad station by 31 July 2026?

Will Apple be the world's second-largest company by market cap on 31 July 2026?

Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 at any point in July 2026?

Will Ethereum's price reach $2,000 at any point in July 2026?

Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before 1 August 2026?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 2026?

Will the US Senate hold a recorded vote on the CLARITY Act before 8 August 2026?

Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 9 August 2026?

Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?

Will Iran formally announce its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the United States by 15 August 2026?

Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 August 2026?

Will Byron Donalds Win the 2026 Republican Primary for Florida Governor?

Will the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 22 August 2026?

Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?

Will WTI crude oil hit $90 per barrel at any point in August 2026?

Will WTI Crude Oil Hit $150 a Barrel in August 2026?

Will WTI crude oil hit $140 per barrel in August 2026?

Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August 2026?

Will another official GTA VI trailer be released by 31 August 2026?

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?

Will Ethereum (ETH) reach $2,000 at any point in August 2026?

Will WTI crude oil fall to $65 a barrel at any point in August 2026?

Will There Be a Direct Military Clash Between NATO and Russia by 31 August 2026?

Will WTI Crude Oil Hit $110 a Barrel in August 2026?

Will Ethereum's price dip to $1,800 or below in August 2026?

Will the US announce it is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear ceasefire negotiations by 31 August 2026?

Will Alibaba have the top-ranked Chinese AI model on the Chimera Arena leaderboard at the end of August 2026?

Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?

Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?

Will Iran invade Kuwait by 31 August 2026?

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on LMArena at the end of August 2026?

Will Rodri Join Barcelona Before September 2026?

Will Vinicius Junior remain at Real Madrid through the 2026 summer transfer window?

Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's US Open?

Will the Federal Reserve leave interest rates unchanged after its September 2026 meeting?

Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 25 September 2026?

Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28?

Will the New York Yankees beat the Arizona Diamondbacks?

Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 September 2026?

Will United Russia gain the most seats of any party in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election?

Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 September 2026?

Will the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 30 September 2026?

Will Google Release Gemini 4.0 by 30 September 2026?

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 to the general public by September 30, 2026?