Events

Filters (1)

31 events

+2 pp
Will the United States launch a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$50.73mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will China launch a military invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$39.25mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
+0.1 pp
Will the United States take sovereignty over Greenland before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$35.13mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
−0.1 pp
Who will be Israel's next prime minister after the 2026 election?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$30.41mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will Iran's regime fall before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$23.35mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be President of Russia by 31 December 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$18.19mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
−0.1 pp
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$11.62mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.03mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open Kalshi site
−0.8 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$6.34mResolution: 31 August 2026
Open Kalshi site
−0.1 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran's de facto head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
79%
price $0.79
Does not happen
21%
price $0.21
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.33mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.25mResolution: 1 August 2026
Open Kalshi site
−0.1 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?
Happens
82%
price $0.82
Does not happen
18%
price $0.18
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.60mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.07mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
−0.5 pp
Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.03mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi become Iran's head of state or government in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.80mResolution: 1 January 2027
Open Kalshi site
−1 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
39%
price $0.39
Does not happen
61%
price $0.61
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.58mResolution: 1 January 2027
Open Kalshi site
+0.4 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railway station by the end of 2026?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.53mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.51mResolution: 1 January 2027
Open Kalshi site
−0.6 pp
Will the US buy at least part of Greenland before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.46mResolution: 1 January 2027
Open Kalshi site
−1 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.33mResolution: 1 October 2026
Open Kalshi site
+0.2 pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by 30 September 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.22mResolution: 30 September 2026
Open on Polymarket
Will China and Japan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.16mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
−0.5 pp
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$998.6kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open Kalshi site
0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before July 2027?
Happens
56%
price $0.56
Does not happen
44%
price $0.44
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$941.8kResolution: 1 July 2027
Open Kalshi site
−7 pp
Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$814.1kResolution: 31 August 2026
Open on Polymarket
−0.5 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
81%
price $0.81
Does not happen
19%
price $0.19
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$781.6kResolution: 31 December 2026
Open Kalshi site
Hot−0.3 pp
Will 30 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz in a single day before 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$494.4kResolution: 31 July 2026
Open on Polymarket
−0.5 pp
Will Iran formally announce its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the United States by 15 August 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$413.2kResolution: 15 August 2026
Open on Polymarket
+4 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$361.3kResolution: 31 August 2026
Open on Polymarket
+0.5 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei Be Seen in Public by the End of 2026?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$169.5kResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
−2 pp
Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$137.4kResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket

Events

Will the United States launch a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?

Will China launch a military invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026?

Will the United States take sovereignty over Greenland before 2027?

Who will be Israel's next prime minister after the 2026 election?

Will Iran's regime fall before 2027?

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be President of Russia by 31 December 2026?

Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before 2027?

Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran's de facto head of state at the end of 2026?

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 2026?

Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?

Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?

Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?

Will Reza Pahlavi become Iran's head of state or government in 2026?

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railway station by the end of 2026?

Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?

Will the US buy at least part of Greenland before 2027?

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall by 30 September 2026?

Will China and Japan have a military clash before 2027?

Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before July 2027?

Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?

Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state at the end of 2026?

Will 30 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz in a single day before 31 July 2026?

Will Iran formally announce its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the United States by 15 August 2026?

Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?

Will Mojtaba Khamenei Be Seen in Public by the End of 2026?

Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?