+2.1 pp
Will US tech layoffs be higher in 2026 than in 2025?
Happens
90%
price $0.90
Does not happen
10%
price $0.10
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$31.44mResolution: 1 March 2027
Events
- โ0.5 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.80mResolution: 31 December 2026 - Hot+0.1 pp
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.20mResolution: 31 July 2026 - +0.5 pp
Will Apple release the iPhone 18 before 2027?
Happens
21%
price $0.21
Does not happen
79%
price $0.79
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$512.5kResolution: 1 January 2027 - +0.5 pp
Will Anthropic release a model called "Mythos" before January 1, 2027?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$201.6kResolution: 1 January 2027