0 pp
Will the United States launch a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?
Happens
19%
price $0.19
Does not happen
81%
price $0.81
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$75.75mResolution: 1 January 2027
Events
- 0 pp
Will China launch a military invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$45.12mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?
Happens
91%
price $0.91
Does not happen
9%
price $0.09
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$38.81mResolution: 4 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will the United States take sovereignty over Greenland before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$35.86mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Bitcoin close 2026 above $100,000?
Happens
15%
price $0.15
Does not happen
85%
price $0.85
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$34.93mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will US tech layoffs be higher in 2026 than in 2025?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$31.50mResolution: 1 March 2027 - 0 pp
Will Iran's regime fall before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$28.25mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Who will win the 2026 college football Heisman Trophy?
Happens
39%
price $0.39
Does not happen
61%
price $0.61
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$26.88mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) be signed into law in 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$24.66mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will OpenSea's token have a fully diluted valuation above $1 billion one day after launch?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$22.85mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Polymarket move its platform to a new blockchain in 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$20.82mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will MetaMask's token be worth more than $1 billion one day after launch?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$20.69mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the WHO declare a hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$18.78mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$16.48mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law before 4 January 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$14.87mResolution: 4 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Base launch its own token by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$14.78mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in the 2026 US midterms?
Happens
67%
price $0.67
Does not happen
33%
price $0.33
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$13.11mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.56mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for governor of Florida in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$10.76mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$10.02mResolution: 9 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Ethereum be priced above $3,000 at the end of 2026?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$9.95mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$9.94mResolution: 3 November 2026 Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.96mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.96mResolution: 1 April 2027Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through October 2026?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.52mResolution: 31 October 2026- 0 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$7.23mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran's de facto head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
86%
price $0.86
Does not happen
14%
price $0.14
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.96mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will GameStop Acquire eBay Before 2027?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$6.91mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will the US record at least 10,000 measles cases in 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.53mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Unitree Robotics' IPO closing market cap exceed ยฅ400 billion in 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$6.23mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
Happens
68%
price $0.68
Does not happen
32%
price $0.32
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.08mResolution: 3 November 2026 Will Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin move in 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.32mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Happens
43%
price $0.43
Does not happen
57%
price $0.57
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.62mResolution: 19 April 2027 - 0 pp
Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship for the 2026 season?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$4.56mResolution: 23 February 2027 Will the Republican candidate win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
Happens
32%
price $0.32
Does not happen
68%
price $0.68
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.39mResolution: 4 November 2026Will the US announce the end of its naval blockade on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
40%
price $0.40
Does not happen
60%
price $0.60
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.33mResolution: 1 January 2027