Accuracy tracker
How well prediction markets have actually predicted, measured against resolved events.
Calibration
Perfect calibration
0.000
Sample size: 166
0.002
Sample size: 166
50.0%
Sample size: 166
50.0%
Sample size: 166
By venue
| By venue | Brier score | Log loss | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.000 | 0.002 | 162 |
| KalshiFewer than 30 resolved events โ not yet a reliable figure | 0.000 | 0.003 | 4 |
By category
| By category | Brier score | Log loss | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|
| other | 0.000 | 0.002 | 166 |
By horizon
| By horizon | Brier score | Log loss | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0d | 0.000 | 0.001 | 160 |
| 1dFewer than 30 resolved events โ not yet a reliable figure | 0.003 | 0.033 | 6 |