Accuracy tracker

How well prediction markets have actually predicted, measured against resolved events.

Sample size: 129 · Updated: 14 Sept 2026, 06:58 UTC · Methodology

Calibration

Perfect calibration

Brier score

0.018

Sample size: 578

Log loss

0.058

Sample size: 578

Predicted probability

50.0%

Sample size: 578

Observed frequency

50.0%

Sample size: 578

By venue	Brier score	Log loss	Sample size
Polymarket	0.018	0.058	502
Kalshi	0.021	0.064	72
Predict.funFewer than 30 resolved events — not yet a reliable figure	0.000	0.003	4

By category	Brier score	Log loss	Sample size
politicsFewer than 30 resolved events — not yet a reliable figure	0.004	0.030	26
sportsFewer than 30 resolved events — not yet a reliable figure	0.011	0.061	8
tech	0.026	0.073	114
geopolitics	0.000	0.011	110
other	0.014	0.042	238
macroFewer than 30 resolved events — not yet a reliable figure	0.000	0.003	4
crypto	0.051	0.164	78

By horizon	Brier score	Log loss	Sample size
0d	0.011	0.035	338
1d	0.027	0.081	182
7dFewer than 30 resolved events — not yet a reliable figure	0.027	0.123	24
30d	0.038	0.124	34