0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?
Happens
86%
price $0.86
Does not happen
14%
price $0.14
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$17.41mResolution: 3 November 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law before 4 January 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$13.31mResolution: 4 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
Happens
48%
price $0.48
Does not happen
52%
price $0.52
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$10.94mResolution: 4 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for governor of Florida in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$10.76mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in the 2026 US midterms?
Happens
51%
price $0.51
Does not happen
49%
price $0.49
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$10.72mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will United Russia gain the most seats of any party in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election?
Happens
80%
price $0.80
Does not happen
20%
price $0.20
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$9.94mResolution: 30 September 2026 - 0 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$9.94mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will Republicans control both the House and Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.39mResolution: 1 February 2027 Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.57mResolution: 10 October 2026Will California pass a one-time billionaire wealth tax in the November 2026 election?
Happens
31%
price $0.31
Does not happen
69%
price $0.69
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.73mResolution: 3 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Mitch McConnell resign from the Senate before the 2026 midterms?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.26mResolution: 3 November 2026 Will Donald Trump leave office as US President before 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.83mResolution: 1 September 2026- 0 pp
Will Donald Trump be out as US President by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.75mResolution: 31 July 2026 Will the Democrats win control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
Happens
53%
price $0.53
Does not happen
47%
price $0.47
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.62mResolution: 3 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Happens
35%
price $0.35
Does not happen
65%
price $0.65
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.42mResolution: 30 April 2027 Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California governor election?
Happens
95%
price $0.95
Does not happen
5%
price $0.05
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.92mResolution: 3 November 2026Will Kamala Harris win the 2026 California Governor election?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.57mResolution: 3 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.17mResolution: 1 August 2026 Will Friedrich Merz stop being Chancellor of Germany before the end of 2026?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.16mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Happens
66%
price $0.66
Does not happen
34%
price $0.34
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$901.4kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$857.9kResolution: 1 January 2027 Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race?
Happens
71%
price $0.71
Does not happen
29%
price $0.29
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$803.5kResolution: 3 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$741.0kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will the Republican candidate win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
Happens
50%
price $0.50
Does not happen
50%
price $0.50
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$696.1kResolution: 3 November 2026Will Count Binface finish second in the Clacton by-election?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$581.2kResolution: 13 August 2026Will the Democratic Party win the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate race?
Happens
60%
price $0.60
Does not happen
40%
price $0.40
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$443.1kResolution: 3 November 2026Will Pete Hegseth leave the role of US Secretary of Defense by 31 December 2026?
Happens
24%
price $0.24
Does not happen
76%
price $0.76
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$425.7kResolution: 31 December 2026Will the 2026 US midterm elections take place as scheduled on 3 November 2026?
Happens
98%
price $0.98
Does not happen
2%
price $0.02
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$409.8kResolution: 31 December 2026Will a Democrat win the 2026 Wisconsin governor race?
Happens
83%
price $0.83
Does not happen
17%
price $0.17
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$311.3kResolution: 3 November 2026- 0 pp
Will the US government take a stake in Spirit Airlines in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$304.1kResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Happens
28%
price $0.28
Does not happen
72%
price $0.72
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$301.0kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Alberta vote for independence from Canada in 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$292.9kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election?
Happens
68%
price $0.68
Does not happen
32%
price $0.32
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$256.5kResolution: 3 November 2026Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$176.0kResolution: 3 November 2026Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$159.4kResolution: 3 November 2026Will Republicans win the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate race?
Happens
61%
price $0.61
Does not happen
39%
price $0.39
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$138.7kResolution: 3 November 2026