Onchain outcome marketsMainnet

Hyperliquid HIP-4 markets, turned into decisions you can understand

Name: Live mainnet markets
Creator: farexio
License: https://farexio.com/en/legal/terms

See what each contract asks, what the current price implies, how deep the book is and what a fixed amount could return. Short-lived markets stay on this permanent live page instead of becoming disposable articles.

Fully collateralized
No leverage
No liquidations

live markets: 18
Updated: 30 Oct 2026, 17:36 UTC
Testnet radar: 13
Source: Hyperliquid public info API: outcomeMeta + L2

Live mainnet markets

Prices and books are collected in the background from Hyperliquid. Every card connects the market probability to the underlying mark price and settlement threshold.

Updated: 30 Oct 2026, 17:36 UTC

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spreadLive data

Will BTC be above 77,250 at 30 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC?

Market probability23%

YES 23%NO 77%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: $77,180.5
Settlement threshold: $77,250
Distance to threshold: +0.1%
Bid–ask spread: 22.0%
Depth near market: US$58.4
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC
Volatility reference range: 25%–28%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts20

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$20.00

Gross result before fees and slippage+$10.00

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spreadLive data

Will BTC be above 77,300 at 30 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC?

Market probability23%

YES 23%NO 77%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: $77,180.5
Settlement threshold: $77,300
Distance to threshold: +0.2%
Bid–ask spread: 23.4%
Depth near market: US$20.9
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 24%–27%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts24.13

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$24.13

Gross result before fees and slippage+$14.13

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spread

Will BTC be above 77,331 at 30 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC?

Market probability50%

YES 50%NO 50%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: $77,180.5
Settlement threshold: $77,331
Distance to threshold: +0.2%
Bid–ask spread: —
Depth near market: —
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 19%–22%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts20

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$20.00

Gross result before fees and slippage+$10.00

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will HYPE be above 80 at 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability98%

YES 98%NO 2%

Underlying: HYPE
Mark price: $90.875
Settlement threshold: $80
Distance to threshold: −12%
Bid–ask spread: 3.4%
Depth near market: US$20.3k
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 100%–100%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts10.17

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$10.17

Gross result before fees and slippage+$0.17

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will CL be above 82 at 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability98%

YES 98%NO 2%

Underlying: CL
Mark price: $104.745
Settlement threshold: $82
Distance to threshold: −21.7%
Bid–ask spread: 4.4%
Depth near market: US$20.1k
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 100%–100%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts10.23

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$10.23

Gross result before fees and slippage+$0.23

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will XYZ100 be above 28,385 at 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability23%

YES 23%NO 77%

Underlying: XYZ100
Mark price: $28,293.5
Settlement threshold: $28,385
Distance to threshold: +0.3%
Bid–ask spread: 12.5%
Depth near market: US$385.1
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 15%–18%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts26.27

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$26.27

Gross result before fees and slippage+$16.27

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will SKHY be above 151 at 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability8%

YES 8%NO 92%

Underlying: SKHY
Mark price: $147.8
Settlement threshold: $151
Distance to threshold: +2.2%
Bid–ask spread: 6.4%
Depth near market: US$714.6
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 3%–5%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts104.28

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$104.28

Gross result before fees and slippage+$94.28

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will SPCX be above 138 at 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability14%

YES 14%NO 86%

Underlying: SPCX
Mark price: $136.485
Settlement threshold: $138
Distance to threshold: +1.1%
Bid–ask spread: 8.5%
Depth near market: US$1.4k
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 7%–13%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts39.25

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$39.25

Gross result before fees and slippage+$29.25

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will MU be above 889 at 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability7%

YES 7%NO 93%

Underlying: MU
Mark price: $872.31
Settlement threshold: $889
Distance to threshold: +1.9%
Bid–ask spread: 5.5%
Depth near market: US$650.5
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 3%–3%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts83.4

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$83.40

Gross result before fees and slippage+$73.40

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will INTC be above 65.5 at 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability9%

YES 9%NO 91%

Underlying: INTC
Mark price: $64.33
Settlement threshold: $65.5
Distance to threshold: +1.8%
Bid–ask spread: 7.8%
Depth near market: US$953.2
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 11%–24%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts70.03

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$70.03

Gross result before fees and slippage+$60.03

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will SP500 be above 7,555 at 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability73%

YES 73%NO 27%

Underlying: SP500
Mark price: $7,569.2
Settlement threshold: $7,555
Distance to threshold: −0.2%
Bid–ask spread: 9.7%
Depth near market: US$608.7
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 83%–84%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts12.43

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$12.43

Gross result before fees and slippage+$2.43

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will COIN be above 141 at 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability14%

YES 14%NO 86%

Underlying: COIN
Mark price: $138.345
Settlement threshold: $141
Distance to threshold: +1.9%
Bid–ask spread: 10.7%
Depth near market: US$934.8
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 3%–5%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts45.45

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$45.45

Gross result before fees and slippage+$35.45

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will META be above 612 at 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability89%

YES 89%NO 11%

Underlying: META
Mark price: $617.865
Settlement threshold: $612
Distance to threshold: −0.9%
Bid–ask spread: 9.1%
Depth near market: US$4.3k
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 82%–86%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts10.52

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$10.52

Gross result before fees and slippage+$0.52

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will SILVER be above 49.6 at 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability7%

YES 7%NO 93%

Underlying: SILVER
Mark price: $49.0935
Settlement threshold: $49.6
Distance to threshold: +1%
Bid–ask spread: 7.7%
Depth near market: US$325.3
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 4%–5%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts57.5

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$57.50

Gross result before fees and slippage+$47.50

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will XYZ100 be above 29,435 at 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability2%

YES 2%NO 98%

Underlying: XYZ100
Mark price: $28,293.5
Settlement threshold: $29,435
Distance to threshold: +4%
Bid–ask spread: 3.2%
Depth near market: US$21.0
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 0%–0%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts512.82

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$512.82

Gross result before fees and slippage+$502.82

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will SP500 be above 7,705 at 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability1%

YES 1%NO 99%

Underlying: SP500
Mark price: $7,569.2
Settlement threshold: $7,705
Distance to threshold: +1.8%
Bid–ask spread: 1.3%
Depth near market: US$15.2
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 0%–0%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts1,030.93

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$1,030.93

Gross result before fees and slippage+$1,020.93

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketWide spreadLive data

Will ANT be above 111.94 at 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability77%

YES 77%NO 23%

Underlying: ANT
Mark price: $114.065
Settlement threshold: $111.94
Distance to threshold: −1.9%
Bid–ask spread: 21.0%
Depth near market: US$1.6k
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 95%–95%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts12.42

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$12.42

Gross result before fees and slippage+$2.42

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will HYPE be above 98 at 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability6%

YES 6%NO 94%

Underlying: HYPE
Mark price: $90.875
Settlement threshold: $98
Distance to threshold: +7.8%
Bid–ask spread: 12.8%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 0%–0%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts156.99

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$156.99

Gross result before fees and slippage+$146.99

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4

How HIP-4 works

HIP-4 outcome contracts are spot-like, fully collateralized tokens. A binary market has two complementary sides. The winning side settles at 1 unit of the quote token and the other at 0; there is no leverage or liquidation engine.

Quality gate

Publication quality gate

A standalone event page is allowed only for a clear mainnet proposition with enough time remaining, a two-sided book, acceptable spread and minimum depth. Recurring daily markets remain on this hub.

Testnet radar

What builders are testing next

The testnet observer tracks permissionless markets built from approved templates. It is a product radar, not a live-money catalogue.

Updated: 30 Oct 2026, 16:48 UTC

Deployments observed: 9,838
Valid structures: 2,090
Future expiries: 13
Two-sided books: 267

Will BTC be above 62,000 at 1 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC?
Market probability50%
Will BTC be above 123,456 at 1 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC?
Market probability50%
Will HYPE be above 1,000 at 12 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC?
Market probability50%
Will BTC be above 100,000 at 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC?
Market probability34%
Will BTC be above 1,004 at 31 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC?
Market probability50%
Will BTC be above 1,002 at 31 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC?
Market probability50%

Testnet prices can be synthetic or untouched. Farexio never mixes them into mainnet probabilities, SEO event pages or referral actions.

How the analysis is built

The worker reads official outcome metadata, mid prices, the executable order book and hourly underlying candles. Pages read only stored snapshots, so an API outage leaves the latest known data visible instead of breaking the page.

Source: Hyperliquid public info API

HIP-4 questions

What does a price of 0.62 mean?

The market currently prices that side at 0.62 per contract, commonly read as a 62% market-implied probability. If it settles as the winner, each contract pays 1 unit of the quote token.

Can a HIP-4 position be liquidated?

HIP-4 outcome contracts are fully collateralized and do not use leverage, so they do not have perpetual-style liquidations.

Why is the model shown as a range?

Short-window and longer-window realised volatility differ. Showing both avoids presenting one fragile estimate as an exact fair probability.