Menu
farexio
Onchain outcome marketsMainnet

Hyperliquid HIP-4 markets, turned into decisions you can understand

See what each contract asks, what the current price implies, how deep the book is and what a fixed amount could return. Short-lived markets stay on this permanent live page instead of becoming disposable articles.

  • Fully collateralized
  • No leverage
  • No liquidations
live markets
5
Updated
1 Aug 2026, 01:50 UTC
Testnet radar
25
Source: Hyperliquid public info API
outcomeMeta + L2

Live mainnet markets

Prices and books are collected in the background from Hyperliquid. Every card connects the market probability to the underlying mark price and settlement threshold.

Updated: 1 Aug 2026, 01:50 UTC
HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will ETH be above 1,905.2 at 1 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability3%
YES 3%NO 97%
Underlying
ETH
Mark price
$1,866.1
Settlement threshold
$1,905.2
Distance to threshold
+2.1%
Bid–ask spread
4.8%
Depth near market
US$66.2
Settles
1 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range
2%–2%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Estimated contracts131.23
Gross payout if this side settles at 1$131.23
Gross result before fees and slippage+$121.23

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will SOL be above 74.208 at 1 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability1%
YES 1%NO 99%
Underlying
SOL
Mark price
$73.0025
Settlement threshold
$74.208
Distance to threshold
+1.7%
Bid–ask spread
1.0%
Depth near market
US$24.1
Settles
1 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range
4%–4%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Estimated contracts1,923.08
Gross payout if this side settles at 1$1,923.08
Gross result before fees and slippage+$1,913.08

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will BTC be above 64,330 at 1 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability0%
YES 0%NO 100%
Underlying
BTC
Mark price
$62,935.5
Settlement threshold
$64,330
Distance to threshold
+2.2%
Bid–ask spread
0.3%
Depth near market
US$146.8
Settles
1 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range
0%–0%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Estimated contracts854.7
Gross payout if this side settles at 1$854.70
Gross result before fees and slippage+$844.70

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spreadLive data

Will HYPE be above 55.189 at 1 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability15%
YES 15%NO 85%
Underlying
HYPE
Mark price
$52.4855
Settlement threshold
$55.189
Distance to threshold
+5.2%
Bid–ask spread
29.7%
Depth near market
—
Settles
1 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range
0%–0%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Estimated contracts65.92
Gross payout if this side settles at 1$65.92
Gross result before fees and slippage+$55.92

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spread

Where will BTC trade at 1 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC?

  • Below 63,04377%
  • 63,043–65,61624%
  • 65,616 or above1%
Underlying
BTC
Mark price
—
Settlement threshold
—
Distance to threshold
—
Bid–ask spread
—
Depth near market
—
Settles
1 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range
—

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Estimated contracts12.92
Gross payout if this side settles at 1$12.92
Gross result before fees and slippage+$2.92

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4

How HIP-4 works

HIP-4 outcome contracts are spot-like, fully collateralized tokens. A binary market has two complementary sides. The winning side settles at 1 unit of the quote token and the other at 0; there is no leverage or liquidation engine.

Quality gate

Publication quality gate

A standalone event page is allowed only for a clear mainnet proposition with enough time remaining, a two-sided book, acceptable spread and minimum depth. Recurring daily markets remain on this hub.

Testnet radar

What builders are testing next

The testnet observer tracks permissionless markets built from approved templates. It is a product radar, not a live-money catalogue.

Deployments observed
34
Valid structures
31
Future expiries
25
Two-sided books
1
  • Will SKHX be above 1,180 at 1 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC?
    Market probability90%
  • Will HYPE be above 73 at 2 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC?
    Market probability51%
  • Will MU be above 1,000 at 14 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC?
    Market probability50%
  • Will TSLA be above 450 at 31 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC?
    Market probability50%
  • Will SP500 be above 8,000 at 31 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC?
    Market probability50%
  • Will SNDK be above 1,500 at 31 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC?
    Market probability31%

Testnet prices can be synthetic or untouched. Farexio never mixes them into mainnet probabilities, SEO event pages or referral actions.

How the analysis is built

The worker reads official outcome metadata, mid prices, the executable order book and hourly underlying candles. Pages read only stored snapshots, so an API outage leaves the latest known data visible instead of breaking the page.

Source: Hyperliquid public info API

HIP-4 questions

What does a price of 0.62 mean?

The market currently prices that side at 0.62 per contract, commonly read as a 62% market-implied probability. If it settles as the winner, each contract pays 1 unit of the quote token.

Can a HIP-4 position be liquidated?

HIP-4 outcome contracts are fully collateralized and do not use leverage, so they do not have perpetual-style liquidations.

Why is the model shown as a range?

Short-window and longer-window realised volatility differ. Showing both avoids presenting one fragile estimate as an exact fair probability.