Onchain outcome marketsMainnet

Hyperliquid HIP-4 markets, turned into decisions you can understand

Name: Live mainnet markets
Creator: farexio
License: https://farexio.com/en/legal/terms

See what each contract asks, what the current price implies, how deep the book is and what a fixed amount could return. Short-lived markets stay on this permanent live page instead of becoming disposable articles.

Fully collateralized
No leverage
No liquidations

live markets: 18
Updated: 8 Sept 2026, 21:26 UTC
Testnet radar: 19
Source: Hyperliquid public info API: outcomeMeta + L2

Live mainnet markets

Prices and books are collected in the background from Hyperliquid. Every card connects the market probability to the underlying mark price and settlement threshold.

Updated: 8 Sept 2026, 21:26 UTC

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spread

Will SKHX be above 1,338.2 at 9 Sept 2026, 00:05 UTC?

Market probability50%

YES 50%NO 50%

Underlying: SKHX
Mark price: $1,357.8
Settlement threshold: $1,338.2
Distance to threshold: −1.4%
Bid–ask spread: —
Depth near market: —
Settles: 9 Sept 2026, 00:05 UTC
Volatility reference range: 86%–91%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts20

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$20.00

Gross result before fees and slippage+$10.00

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will BTC be above 78,275 at 9 Sept 2026, 00:30 UTC?

Market probability49%

YES 49%NO 51%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: $78,533.5
Settlement threshold: $78,275
Distance to threshold: −0.3%
Bid–ask spread: 11.1%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 9 Sept 2026, 00:30 UTC
Volatility reference range: 67%–70%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts15.38

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$15.38

Gross result before fees and slippage+$5.38

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spreadLive data

Will BTC be above 78,775 at 9 Sept 2026, 00:30 UTC?

Market probability50%

YES 50%NO 50%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: $78,533.5
Settlement threshold: $78,775
Distance to threshold: +0.3%
Bid–ask spread: 69.2%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 9 Sept 2026, 00:30 UTC
Volatility reference range: 31%–34%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts20.35

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$20.35

Gross result before fees and slippage+$10.35

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spreadLive data

Will BTC be above 78,525 at 9 Sept 2026, 00:30 UTC?

Market probability47%

YES 47%NO 53%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: $78,533.5
Settlement threshold: $78,525
Distance to threshold: 0%
Bid–ask spread: 28.0%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 9 Sept 2026, 00:30 UTC
Volatility reference range: 50%–51%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts22.35

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$22.35

Gross result before fees and slippage+$12.35

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will HYPE be above 84.076 at 9 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability57%

YES 57%NO 43%

Underlying: HYPE
Mark price: $84.4025
Settlement threshold: $84.076
Distance to threshold: −0.4%
Bid–ask spread: 4.5%
Depth near market: US$678.4
Settles: 9 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 55%–58%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts17.88

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$17.88

Gross result before fees and slippage+$7.88

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will SOL be above 102.91 at 9 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability55%

YES 55%NO 45%

Underlying: SOL
Mark price: $103.105
Settlement threshold: $102.91
Distance to threshold: −0.2%
Bid–ask spread: 8.0%
Depth near market: US$475.2
Settles: 9 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 54%–54%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts17.78

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$17.78

Gross result before fees and slippage+$7.78

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will ETH be above 2,472.3 at 9 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability66%

YES 66%NO 34%

Underlying: ETH
Mark price: $2,483.25
Settlement threshold: $2,472.3
Distance to threshold: −0.4%
Bid–ask spread: 5.5%
Depth near market: US$483.6
Settles: 9 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 60%–62%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts15.65

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$15.65

Gross result before fees and slippage+$5.65

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will BTC be above 78,535 at 9 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability49%

YES 49%NO 51%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: $78,533.5
Settlement threshold: $78,535
Distance to threshold: 0%
Bid–ask spread: 2.9%
Depth near market: US$39.9k
Settles: 9 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 50%–50%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts20.77

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$20.77

Gross result before fees and slippage+$10.77

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spread

Where will BTC trade at 9 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Below 76,96431%
76,964–80,10550%
80,105 or above28%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: —
Settlement threshold: —
Distance to threshold: —
Bid–ask spread: —
Depth near market: —
Settles: 9 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: —

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts32.77

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$32.77

Gross result before fees and slippage+$22.77

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will SP500 be above 7,700 at 9 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability33%

YES 33%NO 67%

Underlying: SP500
Mark price: $7,668.5
Settlement threshold: $7,700
Distance to threshold: +0.4%
Bid–ask spread: 14.6%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 9 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 18%–19%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts30.55

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$30.55

Gross result before fees and slippage+$20.55

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will XYZ100 be above 29,925 at 9 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability11%

YES 11%NO 89%

Underlying: XYZ100
Mark price: $29,497.5
Settlement threshold: $29,925
Distance to threshold: +1.4%
Bid–ask spread: 11.8%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 9 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 2%–3%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts97.75

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$97.75

Gross result before fees and slippage+$87.75

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will SP500 be above 7,775 at 9 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability6%

YES 6%NO 94%

Underlying: SP500
Mark price: $7,668.5
Settlement threshold: $7,775
Distance to threshold: +1.4%
Bid–ask spread: 11.1%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 9 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 0%–0%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts191.2

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$191.20

Gross result before fees and slippage+$181.20

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will SP500 be above 7,625 at 9 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability77%

YES 77%NO 23%

Underlying: SP500
Mark price: $7,668.5
Settlement threshold: $7,625
Distance to threshold: −0.6%
Bid–ask spread: 14.1%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 9 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 89%–90%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts12.99

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$12.99

Gross result before fees and slippage+$2.99

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spreadLive data

Will XYZ100 be above 29,400 at 9 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability63%

YES 63%NO 37%

Underlying: XYZ100
Mark price: $29,497.5
Settlement threshold: $29,400
Distance to threshold: −0.3%
Bid–ask spread: 15.1%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 9 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 66%–68%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts16.48

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$16.48

Gross result before fees and slippage+$6.48

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketWide spread

Will XYZ100 be above 28,875 at 9 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability90%

YES 90%NO 10%

Underlying: XYZ100
Mark price: $29,497.5
Settlement threshold: $28,875
Distance to threshold: −2.1%
Bid–ask spread: —
Depth near market: US$1.1k
Settles: 9 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 100%–100%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts11.09

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$11.09

Gross result before fees and slippage+$1.09

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will SP500 be above 7,700 at 11 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability42%

YES 42%NO 58%

Underlying: SP500
Mark price: $7,668.5
Settlement threshold: $7,700
Distance to threshold: +0.4%
Bid–ask spread: 9.6%
Depth near market: US$251.2
Settles: 11 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 30%–31%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts24.4

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$24.40

Gross result before fees and slippage+$14.40

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will XYZ100 be above 29,400 at 11 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability57%

YES 57%NO 43%

Underlying: XYZ100
Mark price: $29,497.5
Settlement threshold: $29,400
Distance to threshold: −0.3%
Bid–ask spread: 13.9%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 11 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 59%–60%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts17.71

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$17.71

Gross result before fees and slippage+$7.71

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will XYZ100 be above 29,925 at 11 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC?

Market probability24%

YES 24%NO 76%

Underlying: XYZ100
Mark price: $29,497.5
Settlement threshold: $29,925
Distance to threshold: +1.4%
Bid–ask spread: 13.1%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 11 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 12%–14%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts43.2

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$43.20

Gross result before fees and slippage+$33.20

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4

How HIP-4 works

HIP-4 outcome contracts are spot-like, fully collateralized tokens. A binary market has two complementary sides. The winning side settles at 1 unit of the quote token and the other at 0; there is no leverage or liquidation engine.

Quality gate

Publication quality gate

A standalone event page is allowed only for a clear mainnet proposition with enough time remaining, a two-sided book, acceptable spread and minimum depth. Recurring daily markets remain on this hub.

Testnet radar

What builders are testing next

The testnet observer tracks permissionless markets built from approved templates. It is a product radar, not a live-money catalogue.

Updated: 8 Sept 2026, 21:08 UTC

Deployments observed: 5,256
Valid structures: 1,592
Future expiries: 19
Two-sided books: 226

Will BTC be above 100,000 at 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC?
Market probability34%
Will XYZ100 be above 35,000 at 30 Sept 2026, 23:59 UTC?
Market probability45%
Will XYZ100 be above 35,000 at 30 Sept 2026, 23:59 UTC?
Market probability50%
Will BTC be above 100,000 at 10 Oct 2026, 10:10 UTC?
Market probability50%
Will BTC be above 100,000 at 10 Oct 2026, 10:10 UTC?
Market probability50%
Will BTC be above 100,000 at 10 Oct 2026, 10:10 UTC?
Market probability50%

Testnet prices can be synthetic or untouched. Farexio never mixes them into mainnet probabilities, SEO event pages or referral actions.

How the analysis is built

The worker reads official outcome metadata, mid prices, the executable order book and hourly underlying candles. Pages read only stored snapshots, so an API outage leaves the latest known data visible instead of breaking the page.

Source: Hyperliquid public info API

HIP-4 questions

What does a price of 0.62 mean?

The market currently prices that side at 0.62 per contract, commonly read as a 62% market-implied probability. If it settles as the winner, each contract pays 1 unit of the quote token.

Can a HIP-4 position be liquidated?

HIP-4 outcome contracts are fully collateralized and do not use leverage, so they do not have perpetual-style liquidations.

Why is the model shown as a range?

Short-window and longer-window realised volatility differ. Showing both avoids presenting one fragile estimate as an exact fair probability.