Onchain outcome marketsMainnet

Hyperliquid HIP-4 markets, turned into decisions you can understand

Name: Live mainnet markets
Creator: farexio
License: https://farexio.com/en/legal/terms

See what each contract asks, what the current price implies, how deep the book is and what a fixed amount could return. Short-lived markets stay on this permanent live page instead of becoming disposable articles.

Fully collateralized
No leverage
No liquidations

live markets: 18
Updated: 15 Sept 2026, 09:46 UTC
Testnet radar: 26
Source: Hyperliquid public info API: outcomeMeta + L2

Live mainnet markets

Prices and books are collected in the background from Hyperliquid. Every card connects the market probability to the underlying mark price and settlement threshold.

Updated: 15 Sept 2026, 09:46 UTC

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will BTC be above 76,550 at 15 Sept 2026, 12:30 UTC?

Market probability92%

YES 92%NO 9%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: $76,970.5
Settlement threshold: $76,550
Distance to threshold: −0.5%
Bid–ask spread: 7.0%
Depth near market: US$31.5
Settles: 15 Sept 2026, 12:30 UTC
Volatility reference range: 77%–83%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts11.7

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$11.70

Gross result before fees and slippage+$1.70

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spreadLive data

Will BTC be above 77,050 at 15 Sept 2026, 12:30 UTC?

Market probability38%

YES 38%NO 62%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: $76,970.5
Settlement threshold: $77,050
Distance to threshold: +0.1%
Bid–ask spread: 28.0%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 15 Sept 2026, 12:30 UTC
Volatility reference range: 43%–44%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts29.85

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$29.85

Gross result before fees and slippage+$19.85

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spreadLive data

Will BTC be above 76,800 at 15 Sept 2026, 12:30 UTC?

Market probability70%

YES 70%NO 30%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: $76,970.5
Settlement threshold: $76,800
Distance to threshold: −0.2%
Bid–ask spread: 28.0%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 15 Sept 2026, 12:30 UTC
Volatility reference range: 62%–65%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts16.26

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$16.26

Gross result before fees and slippage+$6.26

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will CL be above 97.532 at 15 Sept 2026, 13:35 UTC?

Market probability88%

YES 88%NO 12%

Underlying: CL
Mark price: $99.398
Settlement threshold: $97.532
Distance to threshold: −1.9%
Bid–ask spread: 1.1%
Depth near market: US$338.0
Settles: 15 Sept 2026, 13:35 UTC
Volatility reference range: 97%–99%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts12.07

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$12.07

Gross result before fees and slippage+$2.07

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will NVDA be above 211.13 at 15 Sept 2026, 13:35 UTC?

Market probability69%

YES 69%NO 31%

Underlying: NVDA
Mark price: $211.955
Settlement threshold: $211.13
Distance to threshold: −0.4%
Bid–ask spread: 10.7%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 15 Sept 2026, 13:35 UTC
Volatility reference range: 70%–76%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts16.66

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$16.66

Gross result before fees and slippage+$6.66

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will GOLD be above 4,287.6 at 15 Sept 2026, 13:35 UTC?

Market probability23%

YES 23%NO 77%

Underlying: GOLD
Mark price: $4,271.95
Settlement threshold: $4,287.6
Distance to threshold: +0.4%
Bid–ask spread: 1.8%
Depth near market: US$16.7
Settles: 15 Sept 2026, 13:35 UTC
Volatility reference range: 22%–22%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts37.4

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$37.40

Gross result before fees and slippage+$27.40

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will SPCX be above 148 at 15 Sept 2026, 13:35 UTC?

Market probability61%

YES 61%NO 39%

Underlying: SPCX
Mark price: $148.295
Settlement threshold: $148
Distance to threshold: −0.2%
Bid–ask spread: 9.3%
Depth near market: US$105.8
Settles: 15 Sept 2026, 13:35 UTC
Volatility reference range: 56%–56%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts17.55

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$17.55

Gross result before fees and slippage+$7.55

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spreadLive data

Will XYZ100 be above 29,133 at 15 Sept 2026, 13:35 UTC?

Market probability27%

YES 27%NO 73%

Underlying: XYZ100
Mark price: $28,988.5
Settlement threshold: $29,133
Distance to threshold: +0.5%
Bid–ask spread: 46.7%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 15 Sept 2026, 13:35 UTC
Volatility reference range: 7%–7%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts37.52

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$37.52

Gross result before fees and slippage+$27.52

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will BTC be above 77,616 at 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability28%

YES 28%NO 72%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: $76,970.5
Settlement threshold: $77,616
Distance to threshold: +0.8%
Bid–ask spread: 2.6%
Depth near market: US$9.1k
Settles: 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 29%–33%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts36.72

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$36.72

Gross result before fees and slippage+$26.72

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will ETH be above 2,496.1 at 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability35%

YES 35%NO 65%

Underlying: ETH
Mark price: $2,475.35
Settlement threshold: $2,496.1
Distance to threshold: +0.8%
Bid–ask spread: 5.0%
Depth near market: US$1.4k
Settles: 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 37%–38%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts27.47

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$27.47

Gross result before fees and slippage+$17.47

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will SOL be above 101.32 at 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability43%

YES 43%NO 57%

Underlying: SOL
Mark price: $100.835
Settlement threshold: $101.32
Distance to threshold: +0.5%
Bid–ask spread: 6.0%
Depth near market: US$315.4
Settles: 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 42%–43%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts26.28

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$26.28

Gross result before fees and slippage+$16.28

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLive data

Will HYPE be above 79.72 at 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability40%

YES 40%NO 60%

Underlying: HYPE
Mark price: $79.1195
Settlement threshold: $79.72
Distance to threshold: +0.8%
Bid–ask spread: 4.0%
Depth near market: US$323.1
Settles: 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 40%–42%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts28.57

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$28.57

Gross result before fees and slippage+$18.57

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthLive data

Will BTC be above 74,950 at 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability94%

YES 94%NO 7%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: $76,970.5
Settlement threshold: $74,950
Distance to threshold: −2.6%
Bid–ask spread: 11.0%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 91%–96%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts10.7

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$10.70

Gross result before fees and slippage+$0.70

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spreadLive data

Will BTC be above 77,250 at 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability32%

YES 32%NO 68%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: $76,970.5
Settlement threshold: $77,250
Distance to threshold: +0.4%
Bid–ask spread: 48.0%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 40%–42%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts33.33

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$33.33

Gross result before fees and slippage+$23.33

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spreadLive data

Will BTC be above 76,650 at 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability63%

YES 63%NO 37%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: $76,970.5
Settlement threshold: $76,650
Distance to threshold: −0.4%
Bid–ask spread: 26.0%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 58%–60%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts15.63

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$15.63

Gross result before fees and slippage+$5.63

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spreadLive data

Will BTC be above 77,850 at 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability13%

YES 13%NO 87%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: $76,970.5
Settlement threshold: $77,850
Distance to threshold: +1.1%
Bid–ask spread: 18.0%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 23%–28%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts90.91

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$90.91

Gross result before fees and slippage+$80.91

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spreadLive data

Will BTC be above 79,550 at 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Market probability9%

YES 9%NO 91%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: $76,970.5
Settlement threshold: $79,550
Distance to threshold: +3.4%
Bid–ask spread: 18.0%
Depth near market: —
Settles: 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: 2%–5%

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts111.11

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$111.11

Gross result before fees and slippage+$101.11

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4 · MainnetShort-lived marketLimited depthWide spread

Where will BTC trade at 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC?

Below 76,06350%
76,063–79,16850%
79,168 or above4%

Underlying: BTC
Mark price: —
Settlement threshold: —
Distance to threshold: —
Bid–ask spread: —
Depth near market: —
Settles: 16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Volatility reference range: —

Payout calculator

Change the amount and side to see how many contracts the current mid price represents.

Amount

Estimated contracts20

Gross payout if this side settles at 1$20.00

Gross result before fees and slippage+$10.00

The calculation uses the displayed mid price. The executable price, spread and fees can change the actual result.

A driftless range from realised 7-day and 30-day volatility — context for comparison, not a price target.

1.Get the Hyperliquid referral discount 2.Open this contract on Hyperliquid

Open or connect an account through Farexio’s referral route first.

Then open the exact live contract. Both actions are shown separately so the destination is clear.

HIP-4

How HIP-4 works

HIP-4 outcome contracts are spot-like, fully collateralized tokens. A binary market has two complementary sides. The winning side settles at 1 unit of the quote token and the other at 0; there is no leverage or liquidation engine.

Quality gate

Publication quality gate

A standalone event page is allowed only for a clear mainnet proposition with enough time remaining, a two-sided book, acceptable spread and minimum depth. Recurring daily markets remain on this hub.

Testnet radar

What builders are testing next

The testnet observer tracks permissionless markets built from approved templates. It is a product radar, not a live-money catalogue.

Updated: 15 Sept 2026, 09:09 UTC

Deployments observed: 6,065
Valid structures: 1,696
Future expiries: 26
Two-sided books: 226

Will BTC be above 100,000 at 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC?
Market probability34%
Will XYZ100 be above 35,000 at 30 Sept 2026, 23:59 UTC?
Market probability45%
Will XYZ100 be above 35,000 at 30 Sept 2026, 23:59 UTC?
Market probability50%
Will BTC be above 100,000 at 10 Oct 2026, 10:10 UTC?
Market probability50%
Will BTC be above 100,000 at 10 Oct 2026, 10:10 UTC?
Market probability50%
Will BTC be above 100,000 at 10 Oct 2026, 10:10 UTC?
Market probability50%

Testnet prices can be synthetic or untouched. Farexio never mixes them into mainnet probabilities, SEO event pages or referral actions.

How the analysis is built

The worker reads official outcome metadata, mid prices, the executable order book and hourly underlying candles. Pages read only stored snapshots, so an API outage leaves the latest known data visible instead of breaking the page.

Source: Hyperliquid public info API

HIP-4 questions

What does a price of 0.62 mean?

The market currently prices that side at 0.62 per contract, commonly read as a 62% market-implied probability. If it settles as the winner, each contract pays 1 unit of the quote token.

Can a HIP-4 position be liquidated?

HIP-4 outcome contracts are fully collateralized and do not use leverage, so they do not have perpetual-style liquidations.

Why is the model shown as a range?

Short-window and longer-window realised volatility differ. Showing both avoids presenting one fragile estimate as an exact fair probability.