About
What this is
One page per real-world question, with every venue that trades it, the full history of its market-implied probability, and — once it settles — what actually happened. Resolved pages stay up: they are the raw material for the accuracy tracker.
How we are paid
We receive compensation when a reader opens an account through some of the venues below. That is stated here rather than buried, because a comparison table is only useful if you know where its incentives lie.
- Polymarket
- Predict.fun
- Binance Wallet
- Hyperliquid
- Kalshi
Why the table is not skewed
Ranking never depends on this. Rows sort by trading volume, the recommendation badge is computed from liquidity, fees, regional availability and how much setup a venue demands, and links to venues that pay us nothing carry no tracking. With most venues paying, skewing the table would earn us almost nothing and cost us the only thing that makes it worth reading.
Where the data comes from
Prices are read directly from each venue’s public API and recorded on a fixed schedule — every five minutes for active markets. When a venue’s API is unreachable we show the last known figures with their timestamp rather than an empty table.
Matching the same question across venues is the hardest part of this and the easiest to get wrong. Where a venue publishes the cross-venue identity itself we use it; otherwise the match is scored on wording, entities, dates and thresholds, and anything ambiguous is reviewed before the event is published rather than after.