0 pp
Who will be Israel's next prime minister after the 2026 election?
Happens
42%
price $0.42
Does not happen
58%
price $0.58
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$80.33mResolution: 28 October 2026
World
- 0 pp
Will the United States launch a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$75.96mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will China launch a military invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$45.30mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the United States take sovereignty over Greenland before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$35.88mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Iran's regime fall before 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$28.59mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$16.61mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.57mResolution: 1 January 2027 - Hot
Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through October 2026?
Happens
90%
price $0.90
Does not happen
10%
price $0.10
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$8.29mResolution: 31 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran's de facto head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
85%
price $0.85
Does not happen
15%
price $0.15
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.99mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will the US announce the end of its naval blockade on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
40%
price $0.40
Does not happen
60%
price $0.60
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.51mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic return to normal by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.27mResolution: 1 November 2026- Hot
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 October 2026?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.07mResolution: 31 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?
Happens
81%
price $0.81
Does not happen
19%
price $0.19
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.83mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy cease to be President of Ukraine by the end of 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.73mResolution: 1 January 2027Will the United States invade Cuba in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.69mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Israel close its airspace by 30 September 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.57mResolution: 1 October 2026- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.53mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will China and Taiwan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.50mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Ukraine recapture any territory in Crimea by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.42mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.34mResolution: 6 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.94mResolution: 1 October 2026 Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.91mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.67mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by 31 October 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.62mResolution: 1 November 2026Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 15 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.54mResolution: 15 September 2026Will China invade Taiwan by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.43mResolution: 1 October 2026- 0 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railway station by the end of 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.28mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.17mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Iran publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.05mResolution: 1 January 2027Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.03mResolution: 31 August 2026- 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi become Iran's head of state or government in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.99mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Cuba's Communist government fall in 2026?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.84mResolution: 1 January 2027Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 28 October 2026?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.79mResolution: 29 October 2026Will Hamas officially agree to disarm in Gaza by 31 December 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.76mResolution: 1 January 2027Will the US-Iran ceasefire continue through the 2026 US midterm elections?
Happens
82%
price $0.82
Does not happen
18%
price $0.18
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.72mResolution: 4 November 2026- 0 pp
Will the US buy at least part of Greenland before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.68mResolution: 1 January 2027