0 pp
Will the United States launch a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?
Happens
16%
price $0.16
Does not happen
84%
price $0.84
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$65.55mResolution: 1 January 2027
World
- 0 pp
Will China launch a military invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$41.16mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Who will be Israel's next prime minister after the 2026 election?
Happens
56%
price $0.56
Does not happen
44%
price $0.44
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$36.78mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the United States take sovereignty over Greenland before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$35.43mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Iran's regime fall before 2027?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$25.71mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$13.16mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.13mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.64mResolution: 10 October 2026- 0 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran's de facto head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
85%
price $0.85
Does not happen
15%
price $0.15
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.48mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will China and Taiwan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.35mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy cease to be President of Ukraine by the end of 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.17mResolution: 31 December 2026Will the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 30 September 2026?
Happens
20%
price $0.20
Does not happen
80%
price $0.80
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.04mResolution: 1 October 2026- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.97mResolution: 1 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.84mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Ukraine recapture any territory in Crimea by 31 December 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.74mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.72mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.65mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railway station by the end of 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.28mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.28mResolution: 1 January 2027Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 15 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.17mResolution: 15 September 2026Will China invade Taiwan by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.12mResolution: 1 October 2026- 0 pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.10mResolution: 1 October 2026 Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.03mResolution: 31 August 2026Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 September 2026?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.85mResolution: 30 September 2026- 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi become Iran's head of state or government in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.83mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Cuba's Communist government fall in 2026?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.70mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Hamas officially agree to disarm in Gaza by 31 December 2026?
Happens
22%
price $0.22
Does not happen
78%
price $0.78
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.66mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.64mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will the US announce the end of its naval blockade on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
64%
price $0.64
Does not happen
36%
price $0.36
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.61mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will the US buy at least part of Greenland before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.50mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before July 2027?
Happens
41%
price $0.41
Does not happen
59%
price $0.59
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.49mResolution: 1 July 2027 - 0 pp
Will China and Japan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.37mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will the US formally withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.31mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.02mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$892.3kResolution: 30 September 2026- 0 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
83%
price $0.83
Does not happen
17%
price $0.17
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$871.4kResolution: 31 December 2026