0 pp
Will the Fed leave interest rates unchanged at its July 2026 meeting?
Happens
87%
price $0.87
Does not happen
13%
price $0.13
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$64.48mResolution: 29 July 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will the US government confirm that extraterrestrial life exists before 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$62.71mResolution: 31 December 2026 - +2 pp
Will the United States launch a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$50.73mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will China launch a military invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$39.25mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Who will win the 2026 World Series?
Happens
33%
price $0.33
Does not happen
67%
price $0.67
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$37.10mResolution: 31 October 2026 - +0.1 pp
Will the United States take sovereignty over Greenland before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$35.13mResolution: 31 December 2026 - โ0.1 pp
Who will be Israel's next prime minister after the 2026 election?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$30.41mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Iran's regime fall before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$23.35mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be President of Russia by 31 December 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$18.19mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the WHO declare a hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$17.37mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$12.74mResolution: 3 November 2026 - โ0.1 pp
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$11.62mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.03mResolution: 31 December 2026 - +0.5 pp
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least once in 2026?
Happens
15%
price $0.15
Does not happen
85%
price $0.85
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$8.72mResolution: 31 December 2026 - +1 pp
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
Happens
64%
price $0.64
Does not happen
36%
price $0.36
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.74mResolution: 4 October 2026 - โ0.8 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$6.34mResolution: 31 August 2026 - +1 pp
Will United Russia gain the most seats of any party in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election?
Happens
60%
price $0.60
Does not happen
40%
price $0.40
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.06mResolution: 30 September 2026 - +3.8 pp
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in 2026?
Happens
65%
price $0.65
Does not happen
35%
price $0.35
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$6.04mResolution: 9 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by 31 December 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.35mResolution: 1 January 2027 - โ0.1 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran's de facto head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
79%
price $0.79
Does not happen
21%
price $0.21
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.33mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.25mResolution: 1 August 2026 - +0.1 pp
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Championship?
Happens
75%
price $0.75
Does not happen
25%
price $0.25
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.20mResolution: 6 December 2026 - โ1.9 pp
Will GameStop Acquire eBay Before 2027?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$4.77mResolution: 1 January 2027 - +2 pp
Will the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) be signed into law in 2026?
Happens
28%
price $0.28
Does not happen
72%
price $0.72
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.37mResolution: 1 January 2027 - Hot+9.7 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market cap on 31 July 2026?
Happens
61%
price $0.61
Does not happen
39%
price $0.39
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.88mResolution: 31 July 2026 - โ1 pp
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 at any point in July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.86mResolution: 1 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve leave interest rates unchanged after its September 2026 meeting?
Happens
45%
price $0.45
Does not happen
55%
price $0.55
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.75mResolution: 16 September 2026 - Hotโ0.1 pp
Will Donald Trump be out as US President by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.73mResolution: 31 July 2026 - +3.3 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
50%
price $0.50
Does not happen
50%
price $0.50
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.62mResolution: 31 October 2026 - โ0.1 pp
Will Nicolรกs Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?
Happens
82%
price $0.82
Does not happen
18%
price $0.18
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.60mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in the 2026 US midterms?
Happens
44%
price $0.44
Does not happen
56%
price $0.56
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$2.23mResolution: 3 November 2026 Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.07mResolution: 31 December 2026- โ0.5 pp
Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.03mResolution: 31 December 2026 - โ0.3 pp
Will Ethereum fall to $1,500 or lower before the end of 2026?
Happens
44%
price $0.44
Does not happen
56%
price $0.56
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.95mResolution: 1 January 2027 - โ1.6 pp
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Happens
29%
price $0.29
Does not happen
71%
price $0.71
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.72mResolution: 30 April 2027 - โ1 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
39%
price $0.39
Does not happen
61%
price $0.61
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.58mResolution: 1 January 2027