How the contract works
This contract settles at $1 if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of Hormuz transit calls of 60 or higher on any date up to 15 September 2026, and at nothing if that threshold is never reached in that window. The price at any moment is simply the market's collective estimate of how likely that is: a contract priced at 0.30, for example, would mean traders see roughly a three-in-ten chance of a return to normal traffic before the deadline. If no PortWatch data is published for 15 September 2026 within 14 calendar days of that date, the market resolves using whatever data has been published up to that point. Positions in this contract can typically be sold before settlement, at whatever price the market is quoting at that time.
Yes2%
No98%
Probability
How the price has moved
The market consensus sits at 2% with all $412,681 in recorded volume concentrated on a single venue, Polymarket. No cross-venue spread exists to gauge disagreement since only one platform currently lists the contract. The low price itself is the clearest signal available: traders are pricing this close to a near-certain No, consistent with a disruption that shipping and insurance markets have not shown signs of reversing quickly. Any specific cause for a shift in that pricing is not established by the data available here, but the level itself indicates the market sees the 60-call threshold as very unlikely to be reached in the remaining window.
Analysis
Context
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow channel between Iran and Oman through which tankers carrying roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil must pass. It has no practical alternative route for most Gulf exporters, which is why any disruption there moves oil markets immediately. IMF PortWatch, a monitoring project run with the IMF, tracks daily ship arrivals at ports and chokepoints worldwide using satellite and AIS tracking data, and it publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the strait.
Traffic through the strait fell well below its usual pace after regional military tensions escalated, prompting some shipping lines to reroute, delay sailings, or demand sharply higher war-risk insurance before entering the Gulf. That drop in transit calls is what this market is measuring against a specific bar: a 7-day moving average of 60 or more calls a day, the level PortWatch data associates with normal operation.
The market was created to track whether traffic recovers to that level at any point before 15 September 2026, not just on that date itself. That detail matters, because it means even a brief spike back to normal volumes at any point in the window would be enough to resolve Yes.
The consensus price of 2% is about as close to a settled call as this kind of market gets, and it is worth asking what has to be true for that number to be right. It means traders overwhelmingly expect the 7-day moving average of Hormuz transit calls to stay below 60 for the remainder of the window to 15 September 2026, a stretch of roughly three weeks from today. Only one venue, Polymarket, currently lists the contract, with $412,681 traded, so there is no cross-venue spread to read for disagreement, and the price reflects one pool of positioning rather than a consensus formed across independently priced markets.
The structural reason the number sits this low is straightforward: shipping capacity does not snap back the moment a security threat eases. Insurers who raised war-risk premiums for Gulf transits do not cut them the day tensions cool, and shipping lines that rerouted vessels or renegotiated charters need time, often weeks, to reverse those decisions even once the underlying risk has genuinely fallen. That lag between
What moves the probability
War-risk insurance premiums
Elevated insurance costs for Gulf transits push shipowners toward rerouting or waiting rather than sailing through the strait, and those premiums typically fall slower than the security situation improves. This is the single biggest reason traffic recovery lags any actual de-escalation. Until premiums come down meaningfully, the 60-call threshold is hard to reach.
Regional security situation
Any renewed military incident, tanker seizure, or naval confrontation in the Gulf pushes the probability further down and can reset the clock on any recovery in progress. Conversely, a credible and durable de-escalation is the main lever that could push traffic back toward 60 calls a day within the remaining window. This is the primary swing factor on both sides.
The 60-call threshold and how it is measured
The bar is a 7-day moving average, so a short burst of traffic on one or two days will not trigger resolution on its own; it takes a sustained run of arrivals. That smoothing makes the measure harder to hit quickly, which weighs on the probability given the limited time left.
Time remaining before 15 September 2026
With roughly three weeks left as of 22 August 2026, there is limited room for the kind of gradual recovery that shipping and insurance markets usually need. A short window favours No unless the underlying disruption resolves fast.
Data publication and the 14-day grace rule
If IMF PortWatch has not published data for 15 September 2026 within 14 days, the market settles on whatever data exists by then. This mostly affects timing of resolution, not the underlying probability, but it matters for anyone tracking exactly when a final answer arrives.
The case for
- A durable ceasefire or diplomatic resolution to the regional tensions driving the disruption would need to take hold well before 15 September 2026 to give shipping lines and insurers time to react.
- War-risk insurance premiums for Gulf transits would need to fall enough, and quickly enough, that shipowners resume normal routing rather than continuing to avoid or delay Hormuz transits.
- IMF PortWatch's 7-day moving average would need to reach 60 or more calls a day on at least one date in the window, which requires a sustained run of arrivals rather than a single busy day.
- Major shipping lines would need to publicly reverse recent rerouting or delay decisions, since traffic recovery depends on operational choices as much as on the underlying security picture.
The case against
- Regional tensions that caused the drop in transit calls would need to persist or worsen, which keeps insurers and shipowners cautious regardless of any short-term calm.
- War-risk premiums for Gulf transits typically lag security improvements by weeks, and there is limited time left in the window for that lag to close.
- The 7-day moving average smooths out short-lived recoveries, so even a good week of traffic may not be enough to cross 60 if the improvement is not sustained.
- No specific diplomatic or military development has been reported that would point to an imminent, durable de-escalation before the 15 September 2026 deadline.
What to watch
The main things to track between now and 15 September 2026 are new IMF PortWatch readings of the 7-day moving average for Hormuz transit calls, any public statements from major tanker operators or insurers about resuming normal Gulf routing, and any diplomatic development affecting the regional tensions that triggered the traffic drop. If the moving average starts climbing toward 60 on the PortWatch dashboard, that is the direct, verifiable signal this market is built to capture. The 14-day grace period after 15 September also means final resolution could arrive slightly after that date if PortWatch data is delayed.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
- gas covered
- no trading fee