+1 pp
Will the United States launch a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$50.73mResolution: 31 December 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will China launch a military invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$39.25mResolution: 31 December 2026 - +0.1 pp
Will the United States take sovereignty over Greenland before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$35.13mResolution: 31 December 2026 - โ0.1 pp
Who will be Israel's next prime minister after the 2026 election?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$30.41mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Iran's regime fall before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$23.35mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be President of Russia by 31 December 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$18.19mResolution: 31 December 2026 - โ0.1 pp
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$11.62mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.03mResolution: 31 December 2026 - โ0.5 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$6.34mResolution: 31 August 2026 - โ0.4 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran's de facto head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
79%
price $0.79
Does not happen
21%
price $0.21
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.33mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.25mResolution: 1 August 2026 - โ0.1 pp
Will Nicolรกs Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?
Happens
82%
price $0.82
Does not happen
18%
price $0.18
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.60mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.07mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.03mResolution: 31 December 2026 - โ1 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
39%
price $0.39
Does not happen
61%
price $0.61
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.58mResolution: 1 January 2027 - +0.4 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railway station by the end of 2026?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.53mResolution: 31 December 2026 - โ1 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.33mResolution: 1 October 2026 - +0.1 pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by 30 September 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.22mResolution: 30 September 2026 Will China and Japan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.16mResolution: 31 December 2026- โ5 pp
Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$814.1kResolution: 31 August 2026 Will the US formally declare war on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$762.3kResolution: 31 December 2026- Hot
Will Israel and Iran sign a permanent peace deal by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$619.4kResolution: 31 July 2026 - +8 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Happens
59%
price $0.59
Does not happen
41%
price $0.41
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$575.9kResolution: 31 August 2026 - Hotโ0.3 pp
Will 30 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz in a single day before 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$494.4kResolution: 31 July 2026 Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by 31 December 2026?
Happens
53%
price $0.53
Does not happen
47%
price $0.47
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$459.2kResolution: 31 December 2026- โ0.5 pp
Will Iran formally announce its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the United States by 15 August 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$413.2kResolution: 15 August 2026 - โ0.3 pp
Will Iran invade Kuwait by 31 August 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$398.9kResolution: 31 August 2026 - +3 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$361.3kResolution: 31 August 2026 - โ1 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei Be Seen in Public by the End of 2026?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$169.5kResolution: 31 December 2026 - โ2 pp
Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$137.4kResolution: 31 December 2026 - +1.5 pp
Will the US announce it is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear ceasefire negotiations by 31 August 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$125.9kResolution: 31 August 2026 - Hot+0.4 pp
Will the US Send a Warship Through the Strait of Hormuz by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$99.1kResolution: 31 July 2026