0 pp
Will Iran invade Kuwait by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$847.8kActual outcome: No
Events
Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 24 October 2026?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$840.9kResolution: 25 October 2026Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$810.8kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Xi Jinping Visit the United States by 30 September 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$807.7kResolution: 30 September 2026Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 25 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$734.2kActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will Russia capture the Kostyantynivka railroad station by 30 September 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$709.2kResolution: 30 September 2026 Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 December 2026?
Happens
28%
price $0.28
Does not happen
72%
price $0.72
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$706.7kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Xi Jinping visit the United States by 23 September 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$658.9kResolution: 23 September 2026Will the US-Iran ceasefire continue through 18 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$656.6kActual outcome: YesWill the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 November 2026?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$643.4kResolution: 30 November 2026Will Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline resume operations by 31 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$643.2kActual outcome: NoWill Russia invade another country besides Ukraine in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$626.8kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Israel and Iran sign a permanent peace deal by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$625.6kResolution: 31 July 2026 Will Iran formally withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$624.6kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Iran Fully Close Its Airspace by 31 December 2026?
Happens
40%
price $0.40
Does not happen
60%
price $0.60
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$606.6kActual outcome: NoWill Russia capture Lyman, Ukraine by 31 December 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$585.0kResolution: 1 January 2027Will there be a military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$551.5kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Kim Jong Un Stop Being North Korea's Supreme Leader by the End of 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$544.4kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Israel withdraw its ground forces from beyond the Litani River in Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$533.9kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will the US officially announce a halt to its offensive military operations against Iran by 31 August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$530.5kResolution: 31 August 2026 Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 7 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$524.0kActual outcome: YesWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$517.1kResolution: 1 July 2027- 0 pp
Will 30 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz in a single day before 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$513.2kResolution: 31 July 2026 Will NATO forces shoot down another Russian drone by 31 August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$485.6kResolution: 31 August 2026Will there be a military clash between Israel and Turkey before 2027?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$483.1kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will the US announce it is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear ceasefire negotiations by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$472.6kActual outcome: No Will the US and Iran hold a formal diplomatic meeting by 31 December 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$468.3kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks by 31 December 2026?
Happens
83%
price $0.83
Does not happen
17%
price $0.17
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$465.6kActual outcome: NoWill Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks by 31 October 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$462.7kActual outcome: NoWill the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 November 2026 without a US military strike on Iran?
Happens
50%
price $0.50
Does not happen
50%
price $0.50
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$454.2kResolution: 16 November 2026Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize diplomatic relations before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$452.0kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Russia capture Sumy's railroad station by 31 March 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$449.2kResolution: 1 April 2027Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$440.7kResolution: 1 January 2027Will the US-Yemen ceasefire hold through 31 October 2026?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$418.6kResolution: 31 October 2026- 0 pp
Will Russia capture the Kostyantynivka railroad station by 31 August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$417.5kResolution: 31 August 2026 Will Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic return to normal levels in 2026?
Happens
88%
price $0.88
Does not happen
12%
price $0.12
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$400.0kResolution: 1 February 2027