How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 if the outcome is judged to have happened and at nothing if it is not. The price in between is simply what buyers and sellers currently agree the chance is: a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would mean the market thinks the event happens about three times in ten. Here the question is settled by whether an official US statement announcing an end, termination, cessation or suspension of offensive military operations against Iran is made and reported before 31 August 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Nothing after that deadline counts, and a partial or narrowly scoped change does not count. A position does not have to be held to the settlement date โ it can usually be sold beforehand at whatever the market price is at that moment, which is how traders exit a view early or lock in a move.
Yes99%
No1%
Probability
How the price has moved
There is no price story in the usual sense, and that is the story. The first observation on 29 July 2026 was at full confidence, the range since then has been 100% to 100%, and the change over the last 24 hours is 0.0 percentage points across 13 recorded observations. Nothing in the recorded history shows the market changing its mind, hesitating, or reacting to news. With about $530,544 traded on a single venue and no second quote to compare against, there is also no cross-venue spread to read as disagreement. A flat line at the ceiling of the range means the market considers the question effectively answered and is waiting on the formal resolution date rather than debating the outcome.
Analysis
Context
The question sits inside a period of open US offensive military action against Iran. It does not ask whether the fighting stops on the ground, whether Tehran agrees to anything, or whether sanctions are lifted. It asks a narrower and much more checkable thing: whether the US government, or someone authorised to speak for it, states publicly that its offensive operations against Iran have ended, been terminated, or been suspended.
That distinction matters because American military de-escalation is usually announced before it is negotiated. A president or the Pentagon can declare a halt unilaterally, frame it as a ceasefire, a truce, or a time-limited pause, and keep defensive posture, sanctions and naval measures fully in place. Under the rules of this market, all of those still count. Iranian consent is explicitly not required.
The stakes run well beyond the Gulf. Any USโIran escalation prices straight into crude and shipping insurance through the Strait of Hormuz, and any announced halt tends to unwind that premium quickly. It also lands in the middle of an American election year, with congressional midterms scheduled for 3 November 2026, which makes the framing of any announcement a domestic political act as much as a military one.
The most informative number here is not the level but the variance. The market was first recorded on 29 July 2026 at full confidence, and across 13 recorded price observations the range has been 100% to 100%, with a 0.0 percentage point move over the last 24 hours. A market that opens at the ceiling and never leaves it is not a market weighing arguments; it is a market registering something it considers already determined and simply waiting for the calendar to catch up with the settlement date.
The volume supports that reading rather than undercutting it. Roughly $530,544 has traded across venues, all of it on Polymarket, with no second venue quoting a different level and therefore no spread to interpret. On genuinely contested geopolitical questions โ the timing of a strike, the survival of a government, the outcome of a negotiation โ different venues drift apart by several points because they attract different participants and settle on different sources. The absence of any gap here means there is no live disagreement to arbitrage. Money is changing hands, but it is changing hands at a price that implies near-certainty, which usually happens when traders are closing out or when a contract is being used as a place to park capital until resolution.
What could still break this is definitional, not military. The rules draw a hard line between a general halt to offensive operations and something less: a pause in one theatre, a suspension of one category of strike, a conditional offer contingent on Iranian behaviour. Any of those resolves No. Markets have repeatedly mispriced the difference between a leader saying hostilities are over and an announcement meeting a written standard, and that gap is where the residual risk lives. It is a small risk in the market's assessment, but it is the only one that is not already resolved.
The second constraint is the clock. The announcement must be made and reported before 31 August 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a halt were being negotiated rather than declared, the deadline would be a genuine hazard, because diplomatic timelines slip routinely. Because the price has been pinned since the market's first observation rather than climbing towards the ceiling, the more plausible interpretation is that the qualifying statement is not a future event the market is forecasting but a past one it is confirming. That is why the sensible thing for a reader to check is the resolution source โ official statements from the US government as reported by Reuters, AP and White House briefings โ rather than the price, which has stopped carrying new information.
What moves the probability
The announcement standard, not the fighting
Settlement turns on the words used in an official US statement, not on whether ordnance stops falling. A declared ceasefire, truce or time-limited suspension all qualify, even with sanctions, defensive operations and naval measures left intact. This is a permissive standard and it is the single biggest reason the market sits at the top of its range.
No requirement for Iranian agreement
The rules explicitly remove Tehran from the equation. Washington can announce a halt unilaterally and the contract resolves Yes regardless of how Iran responds or whether it reciprocates. That strips out the usual failure mode for ceasefire markets, where one party walks away from the table.
The 31 August 2026 deadline
Everything must be announced and reported before 11:59 PM ET on that date. In a market still forecasting a future statement, this would be the main downside risk, because diplomatic and military timelines slip. Given the price has never moved off the ceiling, the market appears not to be treating timing as a live constraint.
Partial-versus-general ambiguity
An announcement scoped to one operation, one weapons category or one geography falls short and resolves No. This is the only realistic path to a downside surprise, and it would push the probability sharply lower if a resolver signalled that the wording was being read narrowly. It matters more than any battlefield development at this point.
Domestic political incentives
Congressional midterms fall on 3 November 2026, which gives an administration reason to frame de-escalation explicitly and publicly rather than let it happen quietly. Clear public framing is exactly what this contract requires. The direction of that pressure is towards Yes.
The case for
- The settlement standard is deliberately broad: a ceasefire, truce or even a time-limited suspension counts, and sanctions, defensive operations and a naval blockade may all remain in place.
- The rules do not require Iranian agreement, so the outcome depends on one government's public statement rather than on a negotiation between adversaries.
- The contract has traded at the top of its range across every one of its 13 recorded observations since 29 July 2026, with no venue quoting anything lower, which is the signature of a question traders consider closed.
- Roughly $530,544 in volume has passed through without dislodging the price, meaning no participant has been willing to take the other side at a meaningfully lower level.
The case against
- If the only official statement is scoped to a specific operation, region or weapons type, it falls short of a general halt and the market resolves No under its own rules.
- Everything must be announced and reported before 31 August 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a statement that comes in September, however definitive, does not count.
- A market pinned at its ceiling has no room to absorb bad news, so any resolver dispute over whether the wording constitutes a general halt would move the price a long way in one step.
- Renewed strikes after an announced pause would not by themselves reverse a Yes, but they could complicate how a resolver reads a statement framed as conditional rather than as a cessation.
What to watch
The operative date is 31 August 2026, 11:59 PM ET โ the cut-off for any qualifying announcement. Between now and then, the things that matter are White House briefings and Pentagon statements, and specifically the language they use: 'end', 'termination', 'cessation' and 'suspension' all satisfy the rule, while a pause framed as conditional on Iranian steps may not. Reuters and AP wire copy is the reference reporting for settlement, so their characterisation of any statement carries more weight than commentary. Watch also for any resolver clarification on whether an already-issued statement is being read as a general halt or a partial one, since that is the only remaining variable capable of moving this price.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
- gas covered
- no trading fee