How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls of 60 or more on any date in 2026, and at nothing if that threshold is never reached through 31 December 2026. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers currently think the chance of that happening is; a contract priced at 0.30, for example, would imply a market view of roughly three chances in ten, not a guarantee either way. Positions can typically be bought or sold before the settlement date at whatever price the market is quoting at that time, rather than held to the end.
Yes67%
No33%
Probability
How the price has moved
Trading in this contract is concentrated entirely on Polymarket, with $248,787 in volume behind a current consensus of 67%. No second venue is yet pricing this outcome, so there is no spread between markets to read for confidence, and no published day-over-day or week-over-week move to point to a specific trigger. What can be said plainly is that the market's single reading sits well above the midpoint, indicating that traders assessing this contract lean toward believing at least one month in 2026 will clear the 60-call threshold, rather than believing the disruption will persist through the full year.
Analysis
Context
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow passage between Iran and Oman that nearly all Gulf-origin seaborne oil and gas must pass through to reach open water. It has been a recurring flashpoint whenever tension rises between Iran, Israel and the United States, because Tehran has repeatedly signalled it could disrupt or mine the channel in response to military pressure. Earlier tension between these three governments pushed commercial shipping companies to raise war-risk insurance costs and, in some cases, reroute or delay transits, which is why the question of a 'return to normal' is being asked in 2026 rather than treated as a given.
The IMF's PortWatch initiative tracks ship arrivals at ports and chokepoints worldwide using satellite and vessel-tracking data, and publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait. That series is the sole reference point for this question: it counts container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships and tankers together. The market is not asking whether a war ends or a treaty is signed; it is asking whether a specific published number crosses a specific line before the year is out.
Only one venue is currently pricing this outcome, Polymarket, with a market-implied probability of 67% and $248,787 in trading volume to date.
A 67% consensus, built on $248,787 of volume concentrated in a single venue, tells a reader two distinct things. First, the market leans clearly toward Yes rather than sitting near a coin flip, which suggests traders see the 60-call threshold as a bar that is plausible to clear at some point in a twelve-month window rather than a high bar reserved for full normalization all year. Second, because only Polymarket is currently pricing this event, there is no second venue to check the reading against, so the number reflects the views of whoever has chosen to trade this specific contract rather than a broad cross-venue consensus.
The structure of the resolution rule matters as much as the geopolitics. The question does not require Hormuz traffic to stay at normal levels through the whole of 2026; it resolves Yes the first time a single calendar month shows the 7-day moving average of transit calls hitting 60 or above, even briefly, and stays resolved once that happens. That is a much easier condition to satisfy than a sustained recovery, and it is one reason the market sits above 50% rather than near it. A month of confident rerouting back through the Strait after any easing in tension could be enough on its own.
Working against a straightforward Yes is the fact that IMF PortWatch is an administrative dataset built from tracked vessel movements, and its published figures can lag real-world shipping decisions or be revised. The rules explicitly say revisions made within the 2026 timeframe are taken into account, which cuts both ways: a later correction could push a borderline month over the 60-call line, or could pull one back below it. Any renewed escalation involving Iran, Israel or the United States before 31 December 2026 would also raise war-risk insurance premiums again, which tends to suppress transit counts even without an outright closure of the Strait, since higher premiums push some carriers to delay or divert.
The absence of a published price history and cross-venue spread here means this page cannot point to a specific move that shifted sentiment over the past day or week; the record simply shows the current single-venue reading. That itself is informative: it means the 67% figure has not yet been stress-tested against a second pool of buyers and sellers, so it should be read as one market's live judgment rather than a settled cross-market view.
What moves the probability
Iran-Israel-US tension
Any further military confrontation involving these three governments, or explicit Iranian threats to mine or restrict the Strait, would likely suppress transit counts and push this probability down. Continued de-escalation pushes it up, because commercial shippers resume standard routing once confidence returns.
War-risk insurance costs
Elevated war-risk premiums from Lloyd's-linked underwriters and other marine insurers can keep vessels rerouting or delaying even without a physical blockade. Falling premiums are a leading indicator that traffic counts are likely to recover toward the 60-call threshold.
The one-month resolution rule
Because the question only needs a single calendar month's 7-day moving average to cross 60, not a sustained yearly average, even a short window of confident traffic could resolve this Yes. That structural feature is a significant reason the market sits above the midpoint rather than near it.
IMF PortWatch data lag and revisions
PortWatch's published figures are built from tracked vessel data and can be revised after the fact, and the settlement rules count revisions made within the 2026 window. This adds a modest source of uncertainty independent of what is actually happening on the water.
US naval posture in the Gulf
Continued US Navy escort or patrol activity in the Strait affects how quickly commercial operators regain confidence to resume normal transit schedules. A reduced military footprint, paired with calm, tends to support faster normalization.
The case for
- Diplomatic and military de-escalation between the US, Iran and Israel would let commercial shippers resume standard Hormuz routing without needing a full-year recovery, since only one qualifying month is required.
- The resolution rule only asks for a single calendar month's 7-day moving average to reach 60 transit calls, which is a materially lower bar than sustained normalization through all of 2026.
- A drop in war-risk insurance premiums, which tends to follow calmer periods in the Gulf, would remove a major reason carriers currently reroute or delay transits.
- Historically, shipping through contested chokepoints has rebounded within months once the acute phase of a regional conflict eased, rather than remaining suppressed for a full year.
The case against
- A renewed round of confrontation involving Iran, Israel or the United States before 31 December 2026 could keep insurance premiums elevated and transit counts below the 60-call threshold.
- IMF PortWatch's data is an administrative series drawn from tracked vessel movements, and it may lag or misregister a genuine recovery in port calls, delaying or preventing a qualifying reading.
- If political tension resumes just as the 7-day average approaches 60, the reading could fall back below the line, effectively resetting progress toward resolution.
- With only one venue currently pricing this contract, the 67% figure has not been checked against a second, independent pool of trading, leaving open the possibility that it reflects a narrow set of views rather than broad consensus.
What to watch
The main things to watch are IMF PortWatch's own monthly and daily updates on Strait of Hormuz transit calls, published on its public dashboard, since any string of readings approaching 60 will move this market directly. Beyond the data itself, watch for any diplomatic developments or renewed military incidents involving Iran, Israel or the United States before 31 December 2026, and for shifts in marine war-risk insurance premiums, which tend to lead changes in actual shipping behaviour by weeks. The remaining months of 2026 each represent a fresh chance for a single qualifying month to trigger resolution.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
- gas covered
- no trading fee