How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 if Israel and Iran both sign or formally adopt a written agreement ending hostilities permanently, or both publicly and definitively confirm one, by the 31 July 2026 deadline; it settles at nothing if that does not happen. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers currently think the chance of that outcome is โ a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would imply traders see roughly three chances in ten that a deal is signed in time, though that is a hypothetical, not this market's actual level. A position bought on this market can generally be sold before the deadline at whatever price the market is showing at that time, rather than being held to settlement.
Yes1%
No99%
Probability
How the price has moved
The market was first recorded on 30 July 2026 at a probability of 100%, almost certainly an artifact of a freshly listed contract with very little initial trading rather than a genuine forecast. It has since moved to a consensus of 0% on the single tracked venue, Polymarket, which has seen $619,390 in volume and 12 recorded price observations in the short time the contract has existed. The move from 100% to 0% within the same day is consistent with early mispricing being quickly corrected once more participants engaged, rather than any new information about Israel-Iran diplomacy; no public statement or event has been reported that would independently explain such a swing.
Analysis
Context
Israel and Iran fought a direct military conflict in June 2025, a roughly two-week exchange of missile and air strikes that included US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. That episode ended with a ceasefire brokered with US involvement, not a peace treaty. The two countries have had no formal diplomatic relations since 1979, and the ceasefire has functioned since then as a fragile truce rather than a settled peace.
This contract was created to test something specific: not whether hostilities have paused, but whether Israel and Iran will go further and sign, or jointly and publicly confirm, a written agreement that permanently ends military hostilities, before 31 July 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Statements of goodwill, extended ceasefires, or partial de-escalation do not qualify under the resolution rules. Only a definitive, mutually acknowledged end to hostilities does.
As of 30 July 2026, no such agreement has been reported by either government. No summit, mediated session, or draft text has surfaced publicly that would point toward a signature within the remaining window.
The market's own history tells a clear story. It was first recorded on 30 July 2026 โ the same day covered by this report โ briefly showing a probability of 100%. That print almost certainly reflects a newly listed contract with minimal trading rather than a genuine assessment; a single early trade or quote on thin volume can produce an extreme, temporary reading before more participants weigh in. Consensus across the tracked venue has since moved to 0%, and the market has recorded 12 separate price observations in its short life, consistent with a rapid repricing rather than a settled long-running view.
Only one venue, Polymarket, is currently tracked for this question, with $619,390 in trading volume. That is a meaningful amount for a contract with roughly a day left before resolution, and it suggests active positioning rather than a stale, ignored listing. The absence of a second venue to compare against means there is no cross-market spread to read for disagreement โ the entire visible signal is concentrated in one order book, and it has moved to the extreme low end.
The substantive reason for that pricing is straightforward. A permanent peace treaty between Israel and Iran would be a historic diplomatic event with no obvious precedent between the two states since before the 1979 revolution. The June 2025 conflict ended in a ceasefire, not a negotiated settlement, and ceasefires of that kind have historically taken years, not days, to convert into formal treaties, if they convert at all. There is no reported bilateral or mediated negotiating track underway between Jerusalem and Tehran that would produce a signable text within the final day of this contract's life.
The resolution rules are also strict on this point deliberately: statements of progress, temporary extensions, or continued ceasefire compliance do not satisfy the Yes condition. That raises the bar for a Yes outcome well above general de-escalation, which is itself already an open question given periodic tension since the 2025 truce.
What moves the probability
One day left on the clock
The resolution deadline is 31 July 2026, essentially immediate from the reporting date of 30 July 2026. A permanent treaty of this scale is not something governments announce with no prior public signal, which weighs heavily against Yes.
No visible negotiating track
There is no reported summit, mediated session, or draft agreement between Israeli and Iranian officials. Without a process already underway, a signed or jointly confirmed deal within hours is very unlikely.
2025 ceasefire was not a treaty
The truce that ended the June 2025 conflict stopped military action but did not constitute a permanent settlement. Ceasefires of this kind can persist for years without becoming formal peace agreements, which is the higher bar this contract requires.
Absence of diplomatic relations
Israel and Iran have had no formal diplomatic relations since 1979. That structural gap makes a rapid, jointly signed treaty far less plausible than a step-by-step process spread over years.
The case for
- Israel and Iran would need to jointly sign a written agreement, or both publicly and definitively confirm one, explicitly and permanently ending hostilities, before 31 July 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
- Such an announcement would need to come with no substantial public precursor, since no draft text or summit has been reported as of 30 July 2026.
- A third-party mediator, most plausibly the United States given its role in the 2025 ceasefire, would likely need to have brokered any such agreement quietly and revealed it only at signing.
The case against
- No summit, mediated talks, or draft treaty between Israel and Iran has been publicly reported ahead of the deadline.
- The 2025 ceasefire ended active fighting but was explicitly not framed by either government as a permanent peace settlement.
- Israel and Iran have lacked formal diplomatic relations since 1979, a structural barrier that has not been resolved by the current truce.
- The resolution rules exclude ceasefire extensions or statements of progress, meaning anything short of a definitive, jointly confirmed end to hostilities resolves No.
What to watch
The only date that matters for this contract is the resolution deadline itself, 31 July 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Between now and then, the relevant signals would be any joint statement from the Israeli and Iranian governments, any confirmed mediation session involving the United States or another third party, or any leaked draft treaty text. Absent any of those, the contract is set to expire with the status quo unchanged.
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