How the contract works
A contract on this market settles at $1 if the ceasefire holds through 30 September 2026 Iran Standard Time, and at nothing if the United States carries out a qualifying strike on Iran before then. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers currently think the chance of that outcome is; a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would imply the market sees roughly a three-in-ten chance of that outcome, not this market's actual level. The rules are specific about what counts: an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike, including drones, cruise or ballistic missiles, that directly impacts Iran. Intercepted munitions, naval or artillery fire, cyber operations, ground incursions, small-arms fire, minor loitering munitions or FPV drone strikes, and mere threats or authorizations do not trigger a No. Anyone holding a position can typically sell it before 30 September at whatever price the market is offering at that time, rather than waiting for settlement.
Yes90%
No10%
Probability
How the price has moved
The consensus reading across venues stands at 91%, reported entirely through Polymarket with $555,421 in volume. No day-over-day or week-over-week move is available for this market beyond the current reading, so the figures here describe a level rather than a trend. A price this high, concentrated on a single venue with meaningful but not enormous volume, is consistent with a market that sees the ceasefire as the likely outcome for the remaining stretch of September without treating a strike as effectively ruled out.
Analysis
Context
This market asks a narrow question: will the current US-Iran ceasefire survive without the United States carrying out a direct military strike on Iran before the end of September 2026. It is not asking whether tensions between the two countries ease permanently, only whether the ceasefire holds through this specific window. The two governments have been operating under a truce following a period of heightened confrontation between Washington and Tehran earlier in 2026 that included direct military action. Since then, both sides have avoided the kind of strike that would break the agreement under the terms tracked here. The stakes are straightforward: a US air strike, missile strike, or drone strike that directly hits Iranian territory before the deadline would end the ceasefire in the market's terms, regardless of what triggered it or how either government characterizes it afterward.
The consensus figure across venues sits at 91%, all of it currently reflected on a single tracked venue, Polymarket, which carries $555,421 in trading volume. A reading this high, with only one week left before the resolution date, tells a specific story: the market is not treating a US strike on Iran in the next seven days as a live, competing scenario, but it is also not pricing the ceasefire as fully settled. There is meaningful daylight between 91% and certainty, and that gap is the market's way of acknowledging that a strike, while unlikely in this window, remains possible given how quickly military decisions can be made and executed. Because only one venue is reporting a price here, there is no cross-venue spread to read for disagreement; the number represents one pool of positions rather than a consensus built from divergent views across multiple markets. The resolution rules matter as much as the price. The bar for a No outcome is narrow and specific: it requires a US air strike, missile strike, or drone strike that directly impacts Iran, not any US military activity involving Iran. That excludes a long list of lower-intensity actions, including naval or artillery fire, cyber operations, ground incursions, and even authorizations or threats of strikes that never happen. This narrow definition is itself a reason the price sits where it does. Many of the ways tensions could visibly escalate between now and 30 September, short of an actual US strike on Iranian territory, would not move this contract at all. That leaves room for events that look alarming in the news, such as naval incidents or proxy attacks by Iran-aligned groups, to occur without changing the resolution. What would move the price is any credible reporting of an actual US strike, or, conversely, any diplomatic signal from Washington or Tehran that further reduces the odds of one before the end of the month. The remaining calendar window is now short enough that the market has less time to reassess than it did earlier in the ceasefire period, which is consistent with a level that sits high but leaves a real margin against a low-probability event with a material outcome.
What moves the probability
Days remaining before resolution
Only about a week separates today from the 30 September 2026 deadline, which limits the number of decision points left for either government to change course. A shorter runway generally pushes a stable-outcome market's price higher, because there is simply less time for a strike to occur.
Narrow definition of a qualifying strike
The rules exclude naval fire, cyber operations, ground incursions, small-arms exchanges, and even strike authorizations that are not carried out. This means many forms of visible escalation between the US and Iran would not resolve the market No, which supports a higher price than a broader definition would.
US strike-decision posture
Whether the White House or Pentagon signals openness to renewed strikes on Iranian territory is the single most direct lever on this price. Any public statement suggesting a strike is being planned or authorized would be expected to push the price down sharply, even though an authorization alone does not resolve the market.
Iranian behavior and provocations
Any Iranian action interpreted by Washington as requiring a military response, such as an attack on US forces or allies in the region, would raise the odds of a qualifying US strike. Restraint from Tehran through the remaining days supports the ceasefire holding.
Single-venue pricing
With all reported volume concentrated on one venue, the 91% figure reflects one pool of positions rather than a blended view across multiple independent markets. That makes the price more sensitive to a small number of large trades than a multi-venue consensus would be.
The case for
- No US air strike, missile strike, or drone strike directly impacts Iranian territory before 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on 30 September 2026.
- US actions that fall short of the qualifying threshold, such as naval fire, cyber operations, or intercepted munitions, do not count against the ceasefire under these rules.
- Diplomatic channels between Washington and Tehran remain open enough that neither side escalates to the point of a direct strike order in the final week of September.
- The short remaining window itself works in favor of the ceasefire holding, since there are fewer days left for circumstances to change.
The case against
- A US strike order could be issued and carried out on short notice if Iran is judged to have crossed a red line, such as a move against its nuclear program or an attack on US personnel.
- Proxy activity by Iran-aligned groups against US or allied forces could prompt a direct US response against Iranian territory before the deadline.
- The rules count drone and cruise or ballistic missile strikes as qualifying, which lowers the operational bar for a No outcome compared with requiring a large-scale conventional strike.
- Nine days is enough time for a fast-moving crisis to develop and resolve into military action, as prior US-Iran confrontations have shown can happen quickly.
What to watch
The resolution date of 30 September 2026 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time is the hard deadline. Between now and then, the specific things likely to move this price are any reported US air, missile, or drone strike on Iranian territory; any public statement from the White House or Pentagon about strike planning or authorization against Iran; and any Iranian action, such as an attack on US or allied forces, that could prompt a US military response. Diplomatic statements from either government about the ceasefire's status are also worth tracking, since they are the most direct signal of where each side stands with days left on the clock.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
- gas covered
- no trading fee