0 pp
Will Netflix release a new episode of Stranger Things by 31 December 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.13mResolution: 31 December 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court by 31 December 2026?
Happens
16%
price $0.16
Does not happen
84%
price $0.84
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.11mActual outcome: No Will the US government confirm that aliens exist by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.11mResolution: 1 November 2026- 0 pp
Will the US Senate hold a recorded vote on the CLARITY Act before 8 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.10mActual outcome: No Did Hubert Hurkacz defeat Novak Djokovic at the 2026 Shanghai Rolex Masters?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.09mResolution: 16 October 2026Will Brandon Nakashima beat Frances Tiafoe at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.08mResolution: 29 August 2026- 0 pp
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by 31 December 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.07mActual outcome: No Will Kanye West perform live in Russia by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.07mResolution: 1 November 2026Will Arnold Allen be officially announced as Alexander Volkanovski's next UFC opponent?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.07mResolution: 1 January 2027Will BP be acquired before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.07mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.06mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Iran Lose Control of Kharg Island by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.05mResolution: 1 November 2026Will Elena Rybakina beat Coco Gauff at the 2026 US Open?
Happens
34%
price $0.34
Does not happen
66%
price $0.66
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.05mResolution: 18 September 2026Did Tommy Paul defeat Alexander Zverev at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.05mResolution: 26 August 2026Will the US-Iran ceasefire continue through the 2026 US midterm elections?
Happens
74%
price $0.74
Does not happen
26%
price $0.26
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.03mResolution: 4 November 2026Will the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Cleveland Guardians in Game 5 of the 2026 ALCS?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.03mActual outcome: Tampa Bay RaysWill Anthropic have the best AI model on the LMArena leaderboard at the end of September 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.03mResolution: 30 September 2026Will Novak Djokovic beat Alex de Minaur at the 2026 China Open?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.03mResolution: 13 October 2026Will Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline resume operations by 30 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.02mActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
81%
price $0.81
Does not happen
19%
price $0.19
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.02mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will SpaceX have the highest market cap of any company that IPOs in 2026?
Happens
65%
price $0.65
Does not happen
35%
price $0.35
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.02mResolution: 2 January 2027 Will Carlos Alcaraz beat Roman Safiullin at the 2026 US Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.01mResolution: 6 September 2026Will the Fed change interest rates after its December 2026 meeting?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.01mResolution: 9 December 2026Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$995.9kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Paramount Complete a Takeover of Warner Bros. Before July 2027?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$976.6kResolution: 1 July 2027 - 0 pp
Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released before 1 January 2027?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$971.2kResolution: 1 January 2027 Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by 30 November 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$970.1kResolution: 1 December 2026Will Iga Swiatek beat Donna Vekic at the 2026 China Open?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$969.4kResolution: 12 October 2026Will Iga Świątek beat Elina Svitolina at the 2026 National Bank Open?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$961.0kResolution: 19 August 2026Will the Chicago White Sox beat the Cleveland Guardians in their October 2026 game?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$959.9kActual outcome: Chicago White SoxDid Karen Khachanov defeat Felix Auger-Aliassime at the 2026 US Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$956.7kResolution: 9 September 2026Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire still be holding on 15 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$955.1kActual outcome: YesWill Bitcoin Reach $95,000 in September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$954.1kResolution: 1 October 2026- 0 pp
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$947.1kResolution: 1 July 2027 Will the New York Yankees beat the Arizona Diamondbacks?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$940.4kActual outcome: Arizona DiamondbacksWill Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$935.2kResolution: 1 April 2027