How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 if Karen Khachanov is the player recorded as advancing from this specific match, and at nothing if Felix Auger-Aliassime advances instead. The price at any moment is simply the market's collective estimate of how likely that is — a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would reflect a market view that Khachanov wins that match roughly three times in ten, not a guarantee either way. Settlement is based on the official ATP Tour scores page, with corroboration from credible sports reporting, and the market is scheduled to close out by 9 September 2026. Anyone holding a position can typically sell it before settlement at whatever price the market is offering at that time, rather than waiting for the final result.
Yes1%
No99%
Probability
How the price has moved
The available data shows a market already resting at 0% with $956,650 in volume, all on Polymarket, and no separate opening level, intraday range, or day-over-day change has been reported alongside it. That combination — a floor-level price and no visible volatility around it — reads as a market that considers the question closed rather than one still working through new information. The absence of a documented move simply reflects that the bulk of the trading and price discovery likely happened around and shortly after the scheduled 2 September 2026 match date, before this snapshot was taken.
Analysis
Context
The 2026 US Open is the final Grand Slam of the tennis season, played on hardcourts at Flushing Meadows in New York. This particular question covers a single early-round singles match between Felix Auger-Aliassime, a Canadian who has reached major semifinals before, and Karen Khachanov, a Russian veteran of multiple deep Grand Slam runs including a US Open semifinal appearance. Both players entered the tournament as established, ranked professionals rather than qualifiers, which is why a contract market formed around a specific head-to-head outcome rather than a broader tournament futures question.
The match was originally slated for 2 September 2026. Today, 4 September 2026, is two days past that date, meaning the contest has almost certainly concluded on court, with a winner already recorded in the official ATP draw. The market's resolution window runs through 9 September 2026 to allow time for confirmation and to cover edge cases like postponement or a contested result, but the sporting event itself is behind us.
The consensus figure across tracked venues sits at 0%, built from $956,650 in total trading volume, all of it on a single venue, Polymarket. That combination — an extreme price alongside substantial volume — is itself informative. It does not describe a market that is uncertain or thinly traded; it describes one where a real news event, the completed match, has already been absorbed into the price. Markets on live sporting outcomes typically move gradually while a match is in progress and then snap to an extreme once the result is final, and a flat reading at the floor is what that snap looks like once the dust has settled.
Because only one venue is reporting a price here, there is no cross-venue spread to examine, and no independent second signal to check the reading against. That is a limitation worth naming plainly rather than glossing over: a single-venue market can reflect a narrower pool of participants than a question tracked on several platforms at once. Still, a probability parked at the extreme with meaningful volume behind it is a much stronger signal than a similar price on a market nobody is trading.
The settlement rules add a few conditions that matter for how confidently this can be read as final. If the match somehow was not completed by 16 September 2026 — because of cancellation, a tie that cannot be resolved, or a walkover — the rules call for a 50-50 resolution regardless of any recorded score. If a player won by retirement, default, or disqualification rather than by finishing the match outright, that player is still credited as the winner under these rules. None of those exceptions is signalled by the current 0% reading; a genuine walkover or unresolved tie would be far more likely to leave the price near the middle of the range than pinned at zero, so the price itself argues against those scenarios having occurred.
Historically, in best-of-five Grand Slam matches between two players of this caliber, the market price during play tends to track the score closely, set by set. A collapse all the way to zero after the scheduled date, rather than a partial move, points toward a clean, completed result rather than a marginal or contested one.
What moves the probability
Scheduled match already played
The original date of 2 September 2026 has passed, and the price has moved to the extreme rather than sitting near the middle. This is the single largest factor: a market not tied to a completed event rarely trades at 0% with six-figure volume behind it.
Single-venue pricing
All $956,650 in recorded volume sits on Polymarket, with no second venue to cross-check the reading. This makes the price a strong signal from one pool of participants rather than a triangulated consensus.
Walkover and retirement clauses
The settlement rules credit a win by retirement, default, or disqualification to whichever player is recorded as advancing, and only fall back to a 50-50 split if the match is genuinely unresolved by 16 September 2026. A clean price at zero, rather than near 50%, is inconsistent with that fallback having been triggered.
Confirmation lag on official sources
The market remains open until 9 September 2026 specifically to allow the ATP Tour scores page and secondary sports reporting to confirm the result formally, even though the on-court outcome is very likely already known.
The case for
- For this to resolve in Khachanov's favor, the official ATP Tour record for the match originally set for 2 September 2026 must show him as the player who advanced.
- Alternatively, Khachanov advances under these rules if Auger-Aliassime retired, defaulted, or was disqualified during the match, regardless of the score at that point.
- If the match record remains genuinely unresolved by 16 September 2026 due to cancellation or an unresolved tie, the rules force a 50-50 outcome rather than a clear win for either player.
The case against
- The price sitting at the extreme low end with substantial volume behind it is most consistent with Auger-Aliassime having been the player recorded as advancing.
- No walkover, cancellation, or unresolved-tie scenario appears to be reflected in the current price, since those situations would typically leave the market closer to the middle of the range rather than pinned at zero.
- The settlement rules require the ATP Tour's official record to show Khachanov advancing, and a price this extreme, two days after the scheduled match date, indicates the market believes that record does not exist.
What to watch
The market stays open through its 9 September 2026 resolution date, largely as a buffer for the official ATP Tour scores page to be checked against sports reporting rather than because the on-court result is genuinely in doubt. The only scenarios that could still move this are a formal dispute over the recorded result, a retroactive ruling tied to retirement or disqualification, or the narrow edge case in the rules where an unresolved match by 16 September 2026 forces a 50-50 split. Barring any of those, the ATP's own published result for the Auger-Aliassime v Khachanov match is the only document that matters from here.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
- gas covered