Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$892.3kResolution: 30 September 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will SpaceX have the highest market cap of any company that IPOs in 2026?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$881.6kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 at any point in August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$881.3kResolution: 1 September 2026Did Qinwen Zheng defeat Madison Keys at the 2026 US Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$874.8kResolution: 11 September 2026Will Xi Jinping visit the United States before 2027?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$863.3kResolution: 31 December 2026Will there be a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$858.6kResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$857.9kResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the US formally declare war on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$843.1kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$823.1kResolution: 10 October 2026Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race?
Happens
71%
price $0.71
Does not happen
29%
price $0.29
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$803.5kResolution: 3 November 2026Will Arthur Fils beat Flavio Cobolli at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$802.1kResolution: 29 August 2026- 0 pp
Will the GTA 6 launch be postponed again?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$800.3kResolution: 19 November 2026 Will Jack Draper beat Terence Atmane at the 2026 Canadian Open?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$794.0kResolution: 10 August 2026Did Alexander Zverev beat Cameron Norrie at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$789.3kResolution: 22 August 2026Will Jessica Pegula beat Leylah Fernandez at the 2026 US Open?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$784.8kResolution: 11 September 2026- 0 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market capitalization at the end of August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$780.0kResolution: 31 August 2026 Will Alexander Zverev beat Alejandro Tabilo at the 2026 US Open?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$744.8kResolution: 12 September 2026Will OpenAI complete its IPO by 31 December 2026?
Happens
95%
price $0.95
Does not happen
5%
price $0.05
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$723.5kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Russia capture the Kostyantynivka railroad station by 30 September 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$709.2kResolution: 30 September 2026 Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the LMArena leaderboard at the end of September 2026?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$702.6kResolution: 1 October 2026Will the Republican candidate win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
Happens
50%
price $0.50
Does not happen
50%
price $0.50
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$696.2kResolution: 3 November 2026Will Aryna Sabalenka defeat Taylor Townsend at the 2026 US Open?
Happens
76%
price $0.76
Does not happen
24%
price $0.24
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$687.1kResolution: 13 September 2026Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$669.7kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?
Happens
98%
price $0.98
Does not happen
2%
price $0.02
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$664.1kResolution: 13 November 2026Will Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic return to normal by 31 October 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$654.4kResolution: 31 October 2026- 0 pp
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top-grossing film of 2026 at the US box office?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$653.3kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$642.7kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Emma Navarro beat Lois Boisson at the 2026 US Open?
Happens
87%
price $0.87
Does not happen
13%
price $0.13
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$637.4kResolution: 6 September 2026Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$628.5kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Israel and Iran sign a permanent peace deal by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$625.6kResolution: 31 July 2026 Will Alex Michelsen defeat Brandon Nakashima at the 2026 US Open?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$625.4kResolution: 9 September 2026Will 2026 be the hottest year on record globally?
Happens
77%
price $0.77
Does not happen
23%
price $0.23
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$611.4kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Coco Gauff beat Iva Jovic at the 2026 US Open?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$602.6kResolution: 14 September 2026Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$600.4kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Bitcoin Fall to $70,000 or Below in August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$593.6kResolution: 1 September 2026Will Aryna Sabalenka beat Sara Bejlek at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$592.6kResolution: 27 August 2026