Will Ukraine recapture any territory in Crimea by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.34mResolution: 1 January 2027
Events
- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.34mResolution: 6 October 2026 Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.34mActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.33mActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 Premier League title?
Happens
15%
price $0.15
Does not happen
85%
price $0.85
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$3.31mResolution: 30 May 2027 Will the Republican candidate win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
Happens
34%
price $0.34
Does not happen
66%
price $0.66
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.31mResolution: 4 November 2026- 0 pp
Will LeBron James retire before the 2026-27 NBA season starts?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.26mResolution: 31 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will Ethereum fall to $1,500 or lower before the end of 2026?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.23mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 at any point in July 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.21mActual outcome: Yes Will Alexander Zverev beat Ben Shelton at the 2026 US Open?
Happens
92%
price $0.92
Does not happen
8%
price $0.08
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.17mResolution: 20 September 2026Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 at any point in August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.09mResolution: 1 September 2026Will Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic return to normal by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.06mResolution: 1 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.06mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
50%
price $0.50
Does not happen
50%
price $0.50
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.05mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will the US-Iran ceasefire continue through 22 October 2026?
Happens
98%
price $0.98
Does not happen
2%
price $0.02
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.05mResolution: 23 October 2026- 0 pp
Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
20%
price $0.20
Does not happen
80%
price $0.80
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.99mActual outcome: No Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 October 2026?
Happens
86%
price $0.86
Does not happen
14%
price $0.14
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.98mResolution: 31 October 2026- 0 pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.94mResolution: 1 October 2026 Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.87mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Taylor Fritz beat Brandon Nakashima at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
65%
price $0.65
Does not happen
35%
price $0.35
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.85mResolution: 28 August 2026Will Donald Trump leave office as US President before 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.83mResolution: 1 September 2026- 0 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
76%
price $0.76
Does not happen
24%
price $0.24
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.79mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Donald Trump be out as US President by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.75mResolution: 31 July 2026 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.61mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Jeffrey Epstein be confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.61mResolution: 31 December 2026Will Novak Djokovic beat Thiago Agustin Tirante at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.60mResolution: 22 August 2026Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 15 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.54mResolution: 15 September 2026- 0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.53mActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.50mActual outcome: No Will the AI industry experience a bubble burst by the end of 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.49mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.46mActual outcome: No Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.45mActual outcome: YesWill Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed beat the hardcore Minecraft challenge by 17 August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.43mResolution: 17 August 2026Will China invade Taiwan by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.43mResolution: 1 October 2026Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.41mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 9 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.36mActual outcome: Yes