+0.4 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railway station by the end of 2026?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.53mResolution: 31 December 2026
Events
- −1 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.33mResolution: 1 October 2026 - +0.1 pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by 30 September 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.22mResolution: 30 September 2026 - Hot+0.1 pp
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.20mResolution: 31 July 2026 Will China and Japan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.16mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Netflix release a new episode of Stranger Things by 31 December 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.10mResolution: 31 December 2026 - +0.1 pp
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.09mResolution: 13 August 2026 Will Mercedes win the 2026 Formula 1 Constructors' Championship?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.03mResolution: 6 December 2026- 0 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market cap at the end of 2026?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$904.6kResolution: 31 December 2026 - −5 pp
Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$814.1kResolution: 31 August 2026 Will the US formally declare war on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$762.3kResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$709.0kResolution: 31 December 2026 - −2 pp
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court by 31 December 2026?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$690.8kResolution: 31 December 2026 - +10.5 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$655.6kResolution: 4 August 2026 - Hot
Will Israel and Iran sign a permanent peace deal by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$619.4kResolution: 31 July 2026 - −8.5 pp
Will Ethereum's price reach $2,000 at any point in July 2026?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$603.2kResolution: 1 August 2026 Will SpaceX have the highest market cap of any company that IPOs in 2026?
Happens
89%
price $0.89
Does not happen
11%
price $0.11
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$586.6kResolution: 31 December 2026- +8 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Happens
59%
price $0.59
Does not happen
41%
price $0.41
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$575.9kResolution: 31 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 Premier League title?
Happens
30%
price $0.30
Does not happen
70%
price $0.70
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$497.6kResolution: 30 May 2027 - Hot−0.3 pp
Will 30 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz in a single day before 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$494.4kResolution: 31 July 2026 Will Hyperliquid (HYPE) reach $100 by 31 December 2026?
Happens
21%
price $0.21
Does not happen
79%
price $0.79
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$491.6kResolution: 1 January 2027- +3 pp
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top-grossing film of 2026 at the US box office?
Happens
86%
price $0.86
Does not happen
14%
price $0.14
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$480.5kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by 31 December 2026?
Happens
53%
price $0.53
Does not happen
47%
price $0.47
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$459.2kResolution: 31 December 2026- +0.5 pp
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$457.1kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Did XRP's price reach $3.00 at any point in July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$421.4kResolution: 1 August 2026 - −0.5 pp
Will Iran formally announce its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the United States by 15 August 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$413.2kResolution: 15 August 2026 - −0.3 pp
Will Iran invade Kuwait by 31 August 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$398.9kResolution: 31 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Happens
22%
price $0.22
Does not happen
78%
price $0.78
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$366.7kResolution: 1 July 2027 - +3 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$361.3kResolution: 31 August 2026 - Hot+17.7 pp
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$234.9kResolution: 31 July 2026 - Hot+10.6 pp
Will Apple be the world's second-largest company by market cap on 31 July 2026?
Happens
59%
price $0.59
Does not happen
41%
price $0.41
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$174.3kResolution: 31 July 2026 - −10.5 pp
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend of any movie released in 2026?
Happens
53%
price $0.53
Does not happen
47%
price $0.47
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$169.8kResolution: 31 December 2026 - −1 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei Be Seen in Public by the End of 2026?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$169.5kResolution: 31 December 2026 - −2 pp
Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$137.4kResolution: 31 December 2026 - +1.5 pp
Will the US announce it is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear ceasefire negotiations by 31 August 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$125.9kResolution: 31 August 2026 - +1 pp
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?
Happens
54%
price $0.54
Does not happen
46%
price $0.46
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$121.4kResolution: 13 September 2026