Events

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36 events / 78

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by 30 November 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.08mResolution: 1 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.06mResolution: 1 January 2027
0 pp
Will the US formally declare war on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$865.7kResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 December 2026?
Happens
27%
price $0.27
Does not happen
73%
price $0.73
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$838.6kResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$825.7kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will Kim Jong Un Stop Being North Korea's Supreme Leader by the End of 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$750.8kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will the US-Yemen ceasefire hold through 31 October 2026?
Happens
98%
price $0.98
Does not happen
2%
price $0.02
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$726.7kResolution: 31 October 2026
Open on Polymarket
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 November 2026?
Happens
53%
price $0.53
Does not happen
47%
price $0.47
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$711.2kResolution: 30 November 2026
Open on Polymarket
Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 November 2026 without a US military strike on Iran?
Happens
57%
price $0.57
Does not happen
43%
price $0.43
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$652.8kResolution: 16 November 2026
Open on Polymarket
Will Iran formally withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$641.2kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will Russia invade another country besides Ukraine in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$638.1kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will Russia capture Lyman, Ukraine by 31 December 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$588.5kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will there be a military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027?
Happens
19%
price $0.19
Does not happen
81%
price $0.81
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$563.2kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$521.6kResolution: 1 July 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will there be a military clash between Israel and Turkey before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$486.9kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will the US and Iran hold a formal diplomatic meeting by 31 December 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$468.3kResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize diplomatic relations before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$457.1kResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
Will Russia capture Sumy's railroad station by 31 March 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$449.4kResolution: 1 April 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 November 2026?
Happens
64%
price $0.64
Does not happen
36%
price $0.36
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$447.0kResolution: 16 November 2026
Open on Polymarket
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$441.3kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic return to normal levels in 2026?
Happens
88%
price $0.88
Does not happen
12%
price $0.12
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$411.4kResolution: 1 February 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will Iran close its entire airspace by 31 October 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$389.9kResolution: 1 November 2026
Open on Polymarket
Will the US and Iran hold another senior-level diplomatic meeting by 31 October 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$356.7kResolution: 31 October 2026
Open on Polymarket
Will the US carry out a military strike on Iran before 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$343.0kResolution: 31 October 2026
Open on Polymarket
Will a NATO member invoke Article 5 before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$301.9kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will the US and China reach an official tariff agreement by 31 December 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$298.0kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by 31 December 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$295.4kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will Trump meet Putin in person by the end of 2026?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$244.5kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline be hit by a military strike by 30 November 2026?
Happens
49%
price $0.49
Does not happen
51%
price $0.51
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$204.4kResolution: 30 November 2026
Open on Polymarket
Will Israeli airspace be closed by 31 December 2026?
Happens
34%
price $0.34
Does not happen
66%
price $0.66
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$197.3kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will Donald Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in person in 2026?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$185.8kResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by 30 June 2027?
Happens
55%
price $0.55
Does not happen
45%
price $0.45
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$179.6kResolution: 1 July 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will NATO and Russian military forces engage in a direct armed clash by 30 November 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$131.7kResolution: 1 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
Will the US carry out military strikes on 8 or more countries in 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$131.2kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will Russia capture any territory of Kharkiv city by 31 December 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$125.7kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Polymarket
Will CATL be removed from the Pentagon's Chinese military companies list by mid-2027?
Happens
22%
price $0.22
Does not happen
78%
price $0.78
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$125.4kResolution: 1 July 2027
Open on Polymarket

Events

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by 30 November 2026?

Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?

Will the US formally declare war on Iran by 31 December 2026?

Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 December 2026?

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Will Kim Jong Un Stop Being North Korea's Supreme Leader by the End of 2026?

Will the US-Yemen ceasefire hold through 31 October 2026?

Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 November 2026?

Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 November 2026 without a US military strike on Iran?

Will Iran formally withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027?

Will Russia invade another country besides Ukraine in 2026?

Will Russia capture Lyman, Ukraine by 31 December 2026?

Will there be a military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Will there be a military clash between Israel and Turkey before 2027?

Will the US and Iran hold a formal diplomatic meeting by 31 December 2026?

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize diplomatic relations before 2027?

Will Russia capture Sumy's railroad station by 31 March 2027?

Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 November 2026?

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

Will Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic return to normal levels in 2026?

Will Iran close its entire airspace by 31 October 2026?

Will the US and Iran hold another senior-level diplomatic meeting by 31 October 2026?

Will the US carry out a military strike on Iran before 31 October 2026?

Will a NATO member invoke Article 5 before 2027?

Will the US and China reach an official tariff agreement by 31 December 2026?

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by 31 December 2026?

Will Trump meet Putin in person by the end of 2026?

Will Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline be hit by a military strike by 30 November 2026?

Will Israeli airspace be closed by 31 December 2026?

Will Donald Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in person in 2026?

Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by 30 June 2027?

Will NATO and Russian military forces engage in a direct armed clash by 30 November 2026?

Will the US carry out military strikes on 8 or more countries in 2026?

Will Russia capture any territory of Kharkiv city by 31 December 2026?

Will CATL be removed from the Pentagon's Chinese military companies list by mid-2027?