Will Ben Shelton beat Joao Fonseca at the 2026 National Bank Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.28mResolution: 17 August 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.26mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.24mActual outcome: No Will Belinda Bencic beat Alexandra Eala at the 2026 National Bank Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.21mResolution: 16 August 2026- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before July 2027?
Happens
50%
price $0.50
Does not happen
50%
price $0.50
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.18mResolution: 1 July 2027 Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.18mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.17mResolution: 1 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law in the United States before 1 January 2027?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.16mActual outcome: No Will Arthur Fils beat Frances Tiafoe at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.14mResolution: 30 August 2026Will Coco Gauff beat Jessica Pegula at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.13mResolution: 30 August 2026- 0 pp
Will Netflix release a new episode of Stranger Things by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.11mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the US Senate hold a recorded vote on the CLARITY Act before 8 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.10mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market cap at the end of 2026?
Happens
73%
price $0.73
Does not happen
27%
price $0.27
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.08mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Brandon Nakashima beat Frances Tiafoe at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.08mResolution: 29 August 2026Will Arnold Allen be officially announced as Alexander Volkanovski's next UFC opponent?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.07mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Mercedes win the 2026 Formula 1 Constructors' Championship?
Happens
87%
price $0.87
Does not happen
13%
price $0.13
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.06mResolution: 6 December 2026 Will BP be acquired before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.06mResolution: 31 December 2026Did Tommy Paul defeat Alexander Zverev at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.05mResolution: 26 August 2026Will the WHO declare a new pandemic in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.03mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.01mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$977.4kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Iga Świątek beat Elina Svitolina at the 2026 National Bank Open?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$961.0kResolution: 19 August 2026- 0 pp
Will Paramount Complete a Takeover of Warner Bros. Before July 2027?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$920.5kResolution: 1 July 2027 - 0 pp
Will Donald Trump be Google's #1 most-searched person globally in 2026?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$914.6kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will the US announce the end of its naval blockade on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
73%
price $0.73
Does not happen
27%
price $0.27
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$909.2kResolution: 1 January 2027Will the International Court of Justice win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$907.9kResolution: 10 October 2026Will Elena Rybakina beat Coco Gauff at the 2026 National Bank Open?
Happens
30%
price $0.30
Does not happen
70%
price $0.70
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$897.8kResolution: 20 August 2026Will WTI crude oil hit $90 per barrel at any point in August 2026?
Happens
39%
price $0.39
Does not happen
61%
price $0.61
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$844.7kResolution: 1 September 2026- 0 pp
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Happens
65%
price $0.65
Does not happen
35%
price $0.35
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$833.4kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
81%
price $0.81
Does not happen
19%
price $0.19
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$828.0kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$816.5kResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the US formally declare war on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$802.2kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Arthur Fils beat Flavio Cobolli at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$802.1kResolution: 29 August 2026- 0 pp
Will Iran invade Kuwait by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$795.1kActual outcome: No Will Jack Draper beat Terence Atmane at the 2026 Canadian Open?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$794.0kResolution: 10 August 2026Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$792.9kResolution: 10 October 2026