Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 24 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.88mActual outcome: Yes
Events
Will Mike Trout hit the most home runs in the 2026 MLB regular season?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.75mActual outcome: NoDid the Phillies beat the Braves on 1 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.67mActual outcome: Atlanta BravesWill the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be effectively closed to shipping by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.67mActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.54mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Iran formally announce its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the United States by 15 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.53mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.51mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Apple release the iPhone 18 before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.50mActual outcome: No Will Byron Donalds Win the 2026 Republican Primary for Florida Governor?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.50mActual outcome: YesWhich team will win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
Happens
68%
price $0.68
Does not happen
32%
price $0.32
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.49mActual outcome: NoWill the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 22 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.48mActual outcome: NoWill the Israel-Iran ceasefire still be in effect on 21 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.47mActual outcome: YesWill WTI crude oil hit $90 per barrel at any point in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.46mActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Mercedes win the 2026 Formula 1 Constructors' Championship?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.36mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law in the United States before 1 January 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.34mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.24mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court by 31 December 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.24mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Netflix release a new episode of Stranger Things by 31 December 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.17mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the US Senate hold a recorded vote on the CLARITY Act before 8 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.10mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by 31 December 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.09mActual outcome: No Will the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Cleveland Guardians in Game 5 of the 2026 ALCS?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.03mActual outcome: Tampa Bay RaysWill Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline resume operations by 30 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.02mActual outcome: NoWill the Chicago White Sox beat the Cleveland Guardians in their October 2026 game?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$959.9kActual outcome: Chicago White SoxWill the Israel-Iran ceasefire still be holding on 15 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$955.1kActual outcome: YesWill the New York Yankees beat the Arizona Diamondbacks?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$940.4kActual outcome: Arizona Diamondbacks- 0 pp
Will Iran invade Kuwait by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$847.8kActual outcome: No Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$837.7kActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$801.1kActual outcome: No Will another official GTA VI trailer be released by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$798.7kActual outcome: NoWill Gen.G win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship?
Happens
44%
price $0.44
Does not happen
56%
price $0.56
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$758.8kActual outcome: NoWill Iran Fully Close Its Airspace by 31 December 2026?
Happens
34%
price $0.34
Does not happen
66%
price $0.66
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$748.8kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Hyperliquid (HYPE) reach $100 by 31 December 2026?
Happens
21%
price $0.21
Does not happen
79%
price $0.79
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$742.3kActual outcome: Yes Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$738.6kActual outcome: YesWill the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 25 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$734.2kActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will Ethereum's price reach $2,000 at any point in July 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$724.4kActual outcome: No Will Ethereum reach a new all-time high price by 31 December 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$690.9kActual outcome: No