Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 October 2026?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.89mResolution: 31 October 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?
Happens
81%
price $0.81
Does not happen
19%
price $0.19
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.79mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy cease to be President of Ukraine by the end of 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.71mResolution: 1 January 2027Will the United States invade Cuba in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.68mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.51mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will China and Taiwan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.50mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Ukraine recapture any territory in Crimea by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.42mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Ethereum fall to $1,500 or lower before the end of 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.27mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will LeBron James retire before the 2026-27 NBA season starts?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.26mResolution: 31 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
45%
price $0.45
Does not happen
55%
price $0.55
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.22mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.06mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.91mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.62mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by 31 October 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.62mResolution: 1 November 2026Will Jeffrey Epstein be confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.61mResolution: 31 December 2026Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California governor election?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.61mResolution: 4 November 2026Will the AI industry experience a bubble burst by the end of 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.52mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.42mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Friedrich Merz stop being Chancellor of Germany before the end of 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.37mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railway station by the end of 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.28mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.16mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Iran publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by 31 December 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.00mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi become Iran's head of state or government in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.98mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Chad Bianco win the 2026 California Governor election?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.95mResolution: 4 November 2026Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFC Championship?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.91mResolution: 25 January 2027Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.86mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Cuba's Communist government fall in 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.83mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Mitch McConnell leave the Senate before his term ends?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.82mResolution: 4 January 2027Will Hamas officially agree to disarm in Gaza by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.75mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before the end of 2026?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.72mResolution: 1 January 2027Will the Fed change interest rates after its December 2026 meeting?
Happens
22%
price $0.22
Does not happen
78%
price $0.78
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.71mResolution: 9 December 2026Will the Democratic Party win the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate race?
Happens
71%
price $0.71
Does not happen
29%
price $0.29
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.68mResolution: 4 November 2026- 0 pp
Will the US buy at least part of Greenland before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.68mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Kamala Harris win the 2026 California Governor election?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.57mResolution: 4 November 2026Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race?
Happens
64%
price $0.64
Does not happen
36%
price $0.36
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.52mResolution: 4 November 2026Will the US-Iran ceasefire continue through the 2026 US midterm elections?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.51mResolution: 4 November 2026