Events

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36 events / 122

0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve leave interest rates unchanged after its September 2026 meeting?
Happens
45%
price $0.45
Does not happen
55%
price $0.55
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.75mResolution: 16 September 2026
Open on Polymarket
Hot0 pp
Will Donald Trump be out as US President by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.73mResolution: 31 July 2026
Open on Polymarket
+3.1 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
51%
price $0.51
Does not happen
49%
price $0.49
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.62mResolution: 31 October 2026
Open on Polymarket
−0.1 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?
Happens
82%
price $0.82
Does not happen
18%
price $0.18
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.60mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
+12.2 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.58mResolution: 3 November 2026
Open Kalshi site
0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in the 2026 US midterms?
Happens
44%
price $0.44
Does not happen
56%
price $0.56
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$2.23mResolution: 3 November 2026
Open on Predict.fun
Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.07mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.03mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
−0.6 pp
Will Ethereum fall to $1,500 or lower before the end of 2026?
Happens
44%
price $0.44
Does not happen
56%
price $0.56
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.95mResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Polymarket
−1.3 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.80mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open Kalshi site
0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi become Iran's head of state or government in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.80mResolution: 1 January 2027
Open Kalshi site
−1.5 pp
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Happens
29%
price $0.29
Does not happen
71%
price $0.71
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.72mResolution: 30 April 2027
Open on Polymarket
−1 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
39%
price $0.39
Does not happen
61%
price $0.61
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.58mResolution: 1 January 2027
Open Kalshi site
+0.4 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railway station by the end of 2026?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.53mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
+0.1 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.51mResolution: 1 January 2027
Open Kalshi site
−0.5 pp
Will the US buy at least part of Greenland before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.46mResolution: 1 January 2027
Open Kalshi site
0 pp
Will Polymarket launch an official platform token by 31 December 2026?
Happens
21%
price $0.21
Does not happen
79%
price $0.79
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$1.37mResolution: 1 July 2027
Open on Predict.fun
+0.1 pp
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for governor of Florida in 2026?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.36mResolution: 3 November 2026
Open Kalshi site
−1 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.33mResolution: 1 October 2026
Open Kalshi site
−3 pp
Will Mitch McConnell resign from the Senate before the 2026 midterms?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.32mResolution: 3 November 2026
Open Kalshi site
+3 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
51%
price $0.51
Does not happen
49%
price $0.49
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.24mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open Kalshi site
−7.9 pp
Will OpenSea launch a token by 31 December 2026?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$1.24mResolution: 1 January 2027
Open on Predict.fun
+0.1 pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by 30 September 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.22mResolution: 30 September 2026
Open on Polymarket
Hot+0.1 pp
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.20mResolution: 31 July 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.17mResolution: 1 August 2026
Open Kalshi site
Will China and Japan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.16mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will Netflix release a new episode of Stranger Things by 31 December 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.10mResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
+0.1 pp
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.09mResolution: 13 August 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law in the United States before 1 January 2027?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.08mResolution: 1 January 2027
Open Kalshi site
Will Mercedes win the 2026 Formula 1 Constructors' Championship?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.03mResolution: 6 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
−0.5 pp
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$998.6kResolution: 1 January 2027
Open Kalshi site
−1 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before July 2027?
Happens
56%
price $0.56
Does not happen
44%
price $0.44
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$941.8kResolution: 1 July 2027
Open Kalshi site
0 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market cap at the end of 2026?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$904.6kResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
−1 pp
Will Paramount Complete a Takeover of Warner Bros. Before July 2027?
Happens
30%
price $0.30
Does not happen
70%
price $0.70
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$895.2kResolution: 1 July 2027
Open Kalshi site
0 pp
Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship for the 2026 season?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$828.3kResolution: 23 February 2027
Open Kalshi site
−5 pp
Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$814.1kResolution: 31 August 2026
Open on Polymarket

Events

Will the Federal Reserve leave interest rates unchanged after its September 2026 meeting?

Will Donald Trump be out as US President by 31 July 2026?

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?

Will the Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in the 2026 US midterms?

Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?

Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?

Will Ethereum fall to $1,500 or lower before the end of 2026?

Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?

Will Reza Pahlavi become Iran's head of state or government in 2026?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railway station by the end of 2026?

Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?

Will the US buy at least part of Greenland before 2027?

Will Polymarket launch an official platform token by 31 December 2026?

Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for governor of Florida in 2026?

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?

Will Mitch McConnell resign from the Senate before the 2026 midterms?

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Will OpenSea launch a token by 31 December 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall by 30 September 2026?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of July 2026?

Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine in 2026?

Will China and Japan have a military clash before 2027?

Will Netflix release a new episode of Stranger Things by 31 December 2026?

Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?

Will the SAVE Act become law in the United States before 1 January 2027?

Will Mercedes win the 2026 Formula 1 Constructors' Championship?

Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before July 2027?

Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market cap at the end of 2026?

Will Paramount Complete a Takeover of Warner Bros. Before July 2027?

Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship for the 2026 season?

Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?