−0.2 pp
Will US tech layoffs be higher in 2026 than in 2025?
Happens
90%
price $0.90
Does not happen
10%
price $0.10
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$31.44mResolution: 1 March 2027
Events
- −1.3 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.80mResolution: 31 December 2026 - Hot+0.1 pp
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.20mResolution: 31 July 2026 - +1 pp
Will Apple release the iPhone 18 before 2027?
Happens
21%
price $0.21
Does not happen
79%
price $0.79
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$512.5kResolution: 1 January 2027 - −1 pp
Will Anthropic Have the Best Coding AI Model at the End of 2026?
Happens
56%
price $0.56
Does not happen
44%
price $0.44
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$235.0kResolution: 31 December 2026 - Hot+17.7 pp
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$234.9kResolution: 31 July 2026 - 0 pp
Will Anthropic release a model called "Mythos" before January 1, 2027?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$201.6kResolution: 1 January 2027 - Hot+10.6 pp
Will Apple be the world's second-largest company by market cap on 31 July 2026?
Happens
59%
price $0.59
Does not happen
41%
price $0.41
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$174.3kResolution: 31 July 2026 - −1 pp
Will OpenAI officially announce an IPO before January 1, 2027?
Happens
26%
price $0.26
Does not happen
74%
price $0.74
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$115.3kResolution: 1 January 2027