0 pp
Will the United States launch a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$75.05mResolution: 1 January 2027
Events
- 0 pp
Who will be Israel's next prime minister after the 2026 election?
Happens
49%
price $0.49
Does not happen
51%
price $0.51
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$51.05mResolution: 28 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will China launch a military invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$44.68mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the United States take sovereignty over Greenland before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$35.71mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Iran's regime fall before 2027?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$27.81mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be President of Russia by 31 December 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$26.27mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$22.14mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$15.23mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.54mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran's de facto head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
85%
price $0.85
Does not happen
15%
price $0.15
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.90mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 30 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.59mActual outcome: NoWill the US-Iran ceasefire hold through October 2026?
Happens
78%
price $0.78
Does not happen
22%
price $0.22
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.50mResolution: 31 October 2026- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.30mActual outcome: No Will the US announce the end of its naval blockade on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.94mResolution: 1 January 2027Will the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 15 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.67mActual outcome: NoWill Volodymyr Zelenskyy cease to be President of Ukraine by the end of 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.64mResolution: 1 January 2027Will the United States invade Cuba in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.64mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Nicolรกs Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?
Happens
76%
price $0.76
Does not happen
24%
price $0.24
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.63mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Israel close its airspace by 30 September 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.57mResolution: 1 October 2026Will China and Taiwan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.49mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.43mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Ukraine recapture any territory in Crimea by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.34mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.34mResolution: 6 October 2026 Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.34mActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.33mActual outcome: Yes Will Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic return to normal by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.06mResolution: 1 November 2026Will the US-Iran ceasefire continue through 22 October 2026?
Happens
98%
price $0.98
Does not happen
2%
price $0.02
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.05mResolution: 23 October 2026- 0 pp
Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
20%
price $0.20
Does not happen
80%
price $0.80
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.99mActual outcome: No Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 October 2026?
Happens
86%
price $0.86
Does not happen
14%
price $0.14
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.98mResolution: 31 October 2026- 0 pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.94mResolution: 1 October 2026 Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.87mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.61mResolution: 1 January 2027Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 15 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.54mResolution: 15 September 2026- 0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.53mActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.50mActual outcome: No Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.45mActual outcome: Yes