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27 events / 135

Will Darline Graham Nordone win the Republican nomination for South Carolina's 2026 special U.S. Senate election?
Happens
59%
price $0.59
Does not happen
41%
price $0.41
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$289.1kResolution: 11 August 2026
Open on Polymarket
−4.2 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railroad station by 31 July 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$282.3kResolution: 31 July 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will Justice Samuel Alito retire from the Supreme Court before January 2027?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$264.8kResolution: 1 January 2027
+16.4 pp
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Happens
95%
price $0.95
Does not happen
5%
price $0.05
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$243.3kResolution: 31 July 2026
Open on Polymarket
+6.5 pp
Will Bronny James' next team be the Los Angeles Lakers before 23 October 2026?
Happens
83%
price $0.83
Does not happen
17%
price $0.17
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$240.6kResolution: 23 October 2026
0 pp
Will Anthropic Have the Best Coding AI Model at the End of 2026?
Happens
56%
price $0.56
Does not happen
44%
price $0.44
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$235.0kResolution: 31 December 2026
+1 pp
Will Zohran Mamdani be named Time's Person of the Year for 2026?
Happens
27%
price $0.27
Does not happen
73%
price $0.73
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$227.3kResolution: 1 January 2027
0 pp
Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28?
Happens
19%
price $0.19
Does not happen
81%
price $0.81
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$211.4kResolution: 7 January 2027
0 pp
Will Anthropic release a model called "Mythos" before January 1, 2027?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$202.5kResolution: 1 January 2027
−1 pp
Will Drake be the most-streamed artist on Spotify in the U.S. in 2026?
Happens
77%
price $0.77
Does not happen
23%
price $0.23
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$191.1kResolution: 31 December 2026
+8.6 pp
Will Apple be the world's second-largest company by market cap on 31 July 2026?
Happens
73%
price $0.73
Does not happen
27%
price $0.27
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$188.7kResolution: 31 July 2026
Open on Polymarket
−10.5 pp
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend of any movie released in 2026?
Happens
51%
price $0.51
Does not happen
49%
price $0.49
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$173.4kResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
−1 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei Be Seen in Public by the End of 2026?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$169.6kResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
+0.5 pp
Will Jerome Powell announce his departure or leave as a Federal Reserve Governor before 1 January 2027?
Happens
24%
price $0.24
Does not happen
76%
price $0.76
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$166.6kResolution: 1 January 2027
−1 pp
Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$140.7kResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
+1.5 pp
Will the US announce it is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear ceasefire negotiations by 31 August 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$125.9kResolution: 31 August 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will Bad Bunny be the most-streamed artist on Spotify in 2026?
Happens
78%
price $0.78
Does not happen
22%
price $0.22
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$124.4kResolution: 1 January 2027
+1 pp
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$121.4kResolution: 13 September 2026
Open on Polymarket
−1 pp
Will OpenAI officially announce an IPO before January 1, 2027?
Happens
26%
price $0.26
Does not happen
74%
price $0.74
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$115.3kResolution: 1 January 2027
+7.5 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market capitalization at the end of August 2026?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$109.4kResolution: 31 August 2026
Open on Polymarket
+0.5 pp
Will the US Send a Warship Through the Strait of Hormuz by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$99.9kResolution: 31 July 2026
Open on Polymarket
+4 pp
Will the Fed Change Interest Rates at Its October 2026 Meeting?
Happens
70%
price $0.70
Does not happen
30%
price $0.30
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$92.5kResolution: 28 October 2026
Open on Polymarket
−1 pp
Will Tesla and SpaceX Officially Announce a Merger by 31 December 2026?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$87.4kResolution: 31 December 2026
Open on Polymarket
−0.5 pp
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on LMArena at the end of August 2026?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$72.3kResolution: 31 August 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another round of formal diplomatic talks by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$51.3kResolution: 30 September 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's US Open?
Happens
28%
price $0.28
Does not happen
72%
price $0.72
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$43.5kResolution: 13 September 2026
Open on Polymarket
0 pp
Which club will win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$30.9kResolution: 30 May 2027
Open on Polymarket

Events

Will Darline Graham Nordone win the Republican nomination for South Carolina's 2026 special U.S. Senate election?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railroad station by 31 July 2026?

Will Justice Samuel Alito retire from the Supreme Court before January 2027?

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Will Bronny James' next team be the Los Angeles Lakers before 23 October 2026?

Will Anthropic Have the Best Coding AI Model at the End of 2026?

Will Zohran Mamdani be named Time's Person of the Year for 2026?

Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28?

Will Anthropic release a model called "Mythos" before January 1, 2027?

Will Drake be the most-streamed artist on Spotify in the U.S. in 2026?

Will Apple be the world's second-largest company by market cap on 31 July 2026?

Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend of any movie released in 2026?

Will Mojtaba Khamenei Be Seen in Public by the End of 2026?

Will Jerome Powell announce his departure or leave as a Federal Reserve Governor before 1 January 2027?

Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?

Will the US announce it is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear ceasefire negotiations by 31 August 2026?

Will Bad Bunny be the most-streamed artist on Spotify in 2026?

Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?

Will OpenAI officially announce an IPO before January 1, 2027?

Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market capitalization at the end of August 2026?

Will the US Send a Warship Through the Strait of Hormuz by 31 July 2026?

Will the Fed Change Interest Rates at Its October 2026 Meeting?

Will Tesla and SpaceX Officially Announce a Merger by 31 December 2026?

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on LMArena at the end of August 2026?

Will the US and Iran hold another round of formal diplomatic talks by 30 September 2026?

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's US Open?

Which club will win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?