Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 November 2026?
Happens
59%
price $0.59
Does not happen
41%
price $0.41
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$318.6kResolution: 16 November 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will Tesla and SpaceX Officially Announce a Merger by 31 December 2026?
Happens
19%
price $0.19
Does not happen
81%
price $0.81
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$317.2kActual outcome: No Will Anthropic Release a Fable Model (Version 5.2 or Higher) by 31 October 2026?
Happens
26%
price $0.26
Does not happen
74%
price $0.74
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$307.9kActual outcome: NoWill Casper Ruud win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$306.4kResolution: 13 September 2026Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Happens
28%
price $0.28
Does not happen
72%
price $0.72
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$301.0kResolution: 31 December 2026Will a NATO member invoke Article 5 before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$300.9kResolution: 1 January 2027Will India beat Sri Lanka in the Women's T20 Asia Cup 2026 match?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$300.4kResolution: 20 September 2026- 0 pp
Will the US and China reach an official tariff agreement by 31 December 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$298.0kResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Happens
53%
price $0.53
Does not happen
47%
price $0.47
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$296.6kResolution: 27 October 2026Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win the League of Legends World Championship 2026?
Happens
73%
price $0.73
Does not happen
27%
price $0.27
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$296.0kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Russia capture all of Lyman by 31 December 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$294.6kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railroad station by 31 July 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$290.5kActual outcome: No Will Missouri enact a statewide data center moratorium by 31 December 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$287.0kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$280.9kResolution: 10 October 2026- 0 pp
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$276.9kActual outcome: No Will the United States announce a ban on diesel exports by 31 October 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$276.6kActual outcome: NoWill the Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec election?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$272.4kResolution: 6 October 2026Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Happens
47%
price $0.47
Does not happen
53%
price $0.53
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$271.6kResolution: 25 October 2027- 0 pp
Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$268.4kActual outcome: No Will Alibaba have the top-ranked Chinese AI model on the Chimera Arena leaderboard at the end of August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$266.1kActual outcome: NoWill Bitcoin fall to $80,000 or below between 5–11 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$265.4kResolution: 12 October 2026Will Hyperliquid (HYPE) be listed for spot trading on Binance in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$264.2kResolution: 1 January 2027Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East division title?
Happens
46%
price $0.46
Does not happen
54%
price $0.54
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$263.6kResolution: 4 January 2027Will Apple release the iPhone 18 in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$252.1kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Anthropic complete an IPO by 15 December 2026?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$251.5kActual outcome: NoWill Oklahoma enact a statewide data center moratorium by 30 June 2027?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$248.0kResolution: 1 July 2027- 0 pp
Will China's 2026 GDP growth land in the four-to-five percent band?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$245.2kResolution: 31 January 2027 Will Trump meet Putin in person by the end of 2026?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$236.4kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Alibaba Have the Top-Ranked Chinese AI Model on LMArena at the End of September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$232.9kResolution: 30 September 2026- 0 pp
Will Apple be the world's second-largest company by market cap on 31 July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$232.3kActual outcome: No Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$229.7kResolution: 11 October 2026Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election by less than 5 percentage points?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$229.0kActual outcome: NoWill Trump Announce a New White House Press Secretary by the End of 2026?
Happens
60%
price $0.60
Does not happen
40%
price $0.40
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$228.0kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Houthi Forces Enter Aden, Yemen by the End of 2026?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$226.9kActual outcome: NoWill Nvidia be the world's largest company by market cap on 31 October 2026?
Happens
80%
price $0.80
Does not happen
20%
price $0.20
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$225.1kResolution: 1 November 2026Will Gen.G win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship?
Happens
34%
price $0.34
Does not happen
66%
price $0.66
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$219.5kResolution: 29 November 2026