How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 if Missouri enacts a statewide data center moratorium, by statute or constitutional amendment, before 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and at nothing if it does not. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers currently think the chance of that happening is; a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would imply the market sees roughly a three-in-ten chance, though that is a hypothetical, not this market's current level. Settlement is based on official Missouri General Assembly and Secretary of State records, and local-only moratoria or incentive-only suspensions do not qualify. A position in the contract can typically be sold before settlement at whatever price the market has moved to by then.
Yes3%
No97%
Probability
How the price has moved
The market consensus stands at 3% across the sole venue tracking this question, Polymarket, with cumulative volume of $249,481. Granular day-over-day or week-over-week price history was not available for this writeup, but a reading this low this late in the year is consistent with a market that priced in the closure of Missouri's regular legislative session months ago and has not seen a credible new catalyst since. There is no single publicly reported trigger behind the current level; it reflects the structural absence of a remaining ordinary path to passage rather than a reaction to one specific event.
Analysis
Context
Missouri is one of several US states where the rapid build-out of AI-linked data centers has collided with local concerns about electricity demand, water use and rising utility bills. Developers have been drawn to the state by relatively cheap land and power, and Missouri lawmakers have in recent years offered tax incentives to attract data center investment rather than restrict it. That economic-development posture sits in tension with growing pushback from residents and some local officials near proposed sites.
The question asks whether Missouri will go further than any state has so far: enacting a statewide law or constitutional provision that stops new data centers, or a large subset of them, from being approved, permitted, built, connected to the grid, or operated. Local zoning fights and county-level pauses have occurred elsewhere in the country, but those do not count toward this market, which requires action at the state level, by the General Assembly or through a constitutional amendment, before the end of 2026.
Governor Mike Kehoe, who took office in January 2025, has not called for a moratorium, and no bill of this kind had advanced through the Missouri House or Senate by the time the 2026 regular session adjourned. That timing matters for how the market is priced, because it removes the single most likely vehicle for a Yes outcome this year.
The market-implied probability sits at 3% across the one venue currently trading this question, Polymarket, with total volume of $249,481. A reading this low, on a question this specific, tells its own story: traders see almost no realistic legislative path left in the time remaining. Missouri's constitution structures its regular session to run from January through mid-May, and that window for 2026 has already closed without a statewide data center moratorium bill reaching the governor's desk. With today's date in mid-October, the two remaining routes to a Yes outcome are narrow: a special session called specifically by Governor Kehoe, or a constitutional amendment that voters approve, which would have needed initiative petition signatures certified well before the November 2026 general election to appear on that ballot.
The broader context cuts against a swift reversal. Missouri has spent recent years courting data center investment with tax incentives rather than restricting it, giving state leadership an economic rationale to resist, not accelerate, a moratorium. No other US state has enacted a full statewide data center moratorium as of this writing, so there is no adjacent legislative template Missouri lawmakers could quickly borrow and fast-track. That absence of precedent, combined with the closed regular session, is consistent with a price anchored near the low single digits rather than one reflecting genuine uncertainty.
The $249,481 in volume on a single venue indicates this is a closely watched but thinly traded question relative to larger US political contracts, which is typical for state-level, single-issue legislative markets. A low and apparently stable price at this stage of the year generally signals that the market considers the outcome close to settled in the negative, not that it is actively weighing new information day to day.
What moves the probability
Closed 2026 regular session
Missouri's General Assembly session for 2026 ran January through mid-May and adjourned without passing a statewide data center moratorium, removing the ordinary legislative route for the rest of the year. This pushes the probability down because the remaining options require extraordinary action.
Special session dependency
Only Governor Kehoe can call a special session, and nothing currently on the public record points to one being scheduled on data centers. Without that call, a statute cannot be enacted before 31 December 2026, which is the single largest factor keeping the price low.
Ballot initiative timing
A constitutional amendment would need voter approval, likely at the November 2026 general election, but that required certified initiative petition signatures well in advance of that vote. If no qualifying petition was certified earlier in 2026, this path is effectively closed for this cycle.
State economic development incentives
Missouri has used tax incentives to attract data center investment, giving lawmakers and the governor's office a financial interest in avoiding a statewide restriction. This works against a Yes outcome and reinforces the low price.
National precedent and pressure
No US state has yet enacted a full statewide data center moratorium, so Missouri would be setting new ground rather than following an established model. Rising national debate over data center energy and water use could still generate late pressure, but it has not yet translated into Missouri legislation.
The case for
- A gubernatorial special session called before 31 December 2026 could produce a moratorium bill that passes both chambers and is signed into law within that narrow window.
- A certified constitutional amendment petition could still reach the November 2026 ballot if the signature and certification process was completed on the required timeline, and voters could approve it.
- Intensifying national backlash over data center electricity and water demand could create enough political pressure on Missouri lawmakers to force emergency action before year-end.
- A sufficiently prominent local controversy over a specific Missouri data center project could become the trigger that moves leadership to act quickly.
The case against
- Missouri's 2026 regular legislative session, which ran January to mid-May, adjourned without a statewide data center moratorium bill advancing.
- Governor Kehoe has not called, and has given no public indication of calling, a special session on this topic.
- Missouri has actively used tax incentives to attract data center investment, giving state leadership an economic reason to resist, rather than pursue, a moratorium.
- No other US state has enacted a full statewide data center moratorium, meaning there is no immediate precedent pushing Missouri lawmakers toward fast action.
What to watch
The key dates ahead are any announcement of a Missouri special session by Governor Kehoe, which would be the fastest route to a statutory moratorium before 31 December 2026, and the certification status of any constitutional amendment petition aimed at the November 2026 general election ballot. Statements from Missouri legislative leadership heading into the next regular session, which would not convene until January 2027, would also signal whether momentum is building for 2027 rather than this year. Any local Missouri data center controversy that escalates sharply could also change the political calculus, though it would still need to clear the special-session or ballot hurdle to count toward this market.
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