Probability
How the price has moved
The contract's earliest recorded price, 100% on 29 July 2026, reflected a market that had barely traded rather than a genuine forecast. As more contracts changed hands the price fell through a range of 88% to 100% before dropping to its current level near 11%, a large repricing that shows the early quote was not representative once real volume arrived. Over the most recent 24 hours the price has moved only 0.2 percentage points, indicating the market has settled into a level it currently considers a reasonable estimate rather than one still being actively revised.
Analysis
Context
Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire in November 2024, brokered by the United States and France, that called for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days while the Lebanese Armed Forces deployed to fill the vacuum. That initial deadline passed without a full withdrawal. Israel has instead kept troops at a small number of positions it describes as strategic high ground, arguing that Hezbollah has not been disarmed and that continued presence is needed to prevent the group from rebuilding infrastructure near the border.
The arrangement has effectively become semi-permanent, monitored loosely by a US-led mechanism that also includes France and the Lebanese and Israeli militaries. Lebanon's government has repeatedly called the continued Israeli presence a violation of its sovereignty and the ceasefire's terms, while Israel has periodically carried out strikes inside Lebanon that it says target Hezbollah operatives or weapons transfers, which Lebanon and Hezbollah describe as ceasefire violations of their own.
This market asks whether Israel will make an official announcement, or whether credible reporting will confirm, that all ground forces have left Lebanese territory (not counting Shebaa Farms, which is treated as Israeli territory for settlement purposes) by 31 December 2026. A stated intention to withdraw in the future would not be enough; the pullout has to have already happened.
The contract's price history tells a story of quick recalibration rather than a stable consensus. It was first recorded on 29 July 2026 at 100%, but that print came with almost no trading behind it, the kind of level that shows up when a market opens and only a handful of contracts have changed hands. As volume built, the price moved through a range of 88% to 100% before settling near its current level of around 11%, a much lower figure that reflects actual trading rather than an opening quote. Over the last 24 hours the price has moved only 0.2 percentage points, which suggests the market has now found a level it considers roughly right, at least for now, rather than one still being discovered.
The case for a low probability rests on the concrete record since the November 2024 ceasefire. Israel missed the original 60-day withdrawal deadline built into that agreement and has instead maintained ground positions at several points along the border for well over a year, describing them as necessary buffers against Hezbollah. Israeli officials have periodically signaled these positions could be held indefinitely absent a broader disarmament of Hezbollah, a condition that has not been met and shows no clear timeline for being met.
What would move the price higher is a specific, verifiable event: a new agreement, most likely brokered again by Washington, that sets and holds to a withdrawal date, or a unilateral Israeli decision announced by its government. Neither has occurred as of this writing. The Lebanese Armed Forces' deployment in the south, part of the original ceasefire framework, is the mechanism that would in theory let Israel withdraw without ceding ground to Hezbollah, but its pace and effectiveness remain contested between the two governments.
Volume on this question, $137,416 across the tracked venue, is modest, and only one venue currently prices it, so there is no cross-venue spread to read for disagreement. With 104 price observations since inception, the market has had enough activity to move off its initial 100% print but not so much history that a single new data point, such as a US statement or an Israeli cabinet decision, could not shift it meaningfully.
What moves the probability
Status of the November 2024 ceasefire
The ceasefire's original 60-day withdrawal clause was never fully honored, and Israel has held positions in southern Lebanon well past that point. This history is the single biggest reason the market prices a full withdrawal as unlikely; a deadline has already been missed once.
Hezbollah disarmament progress
Israel has tied continued ground presence to the pace of Hezbollah's disarmament under Lebanese Armed Forces and international monitoring. Visible progress on disarmament would remove Israel's stated justification for staying and could push the probability up; continued stalemate keeps it low.
US diplomatic involvement
Washington brokered the original ceasefire and remains the most likely actor to negotiate a firm new withdrawal timeline. A concrete US-brokered announcement before the deadline would be the clearest upward driver; without one, the status quo favors No.
Cross-border strikes and incidents
Israel has continued strikes inside Lebanon that it attributes to Hezbollah activity, and any major escalation would make a near-term withdrawal even less likely. A serious flare-up would push the price further down; a sustained lull could support gradual movement upward.
Time remaining to the deadline
With the resolution date set for 31 December 2026, the window for a full withdrawal to both occur and be confirmed is shrinking as the year progresses. The later a withdrawal would need to start to still complete in time, the more it weighs against Yes.
The case for
- The Lebanese Armed Forces complete a verified deployment across the south that satisfies Israeli security concerns, and Israel withdraws its remaining hilltop positions before 31 December 2026.
- A new US or French-brokered agreement sets a binding, near-term withdrawal date that Israel then follows through on, with the Israeli government issuing an official statement confirming the pullout.
- Hezbollah's disarmament advances enough, under international monitoring, that Israel's stated justification for staying no longer applies.
- Reporting from major international outlets corroborates a full withdrawal even if Israeli government statements are initially unclear, which is enough for Yes under the settlement rules.
The case against
- Israel has already missed the original 60-day withdrawal deadline from the November 2024 ceasefire and has held its positions for well over a year since, with no announced end date.
- Israeli officials have described the remaining positions as strategic and tied to Hezbollah's continued armament, a condition that has not changed as of mid-2026.
- Continued Israeli strikes inside Lebanon suggest an active security posture rather than a build-down, making a full pullout within the remaining months of 2026 harder to reconcile with current operations.
- The settlement bar is strict: a stated intention or planned withdrawal does not count, only a completed one confirmed by government statement or credible reporting before the deadline.