0 pp
Will the United States launch a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$75.05mResolution: 1 January 2027
Events
- 0 pp
Who will be Israel's next prime minister after the 2026 election?
Happens
49%
price $0.49
Does not happen
51%
price $0.51
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$51.05mResolution: 28 October 2026 - 0 pp
Who will win the 2026 World Series?
Happens
64%
price $0.64
Does not happen
36%
price $0.36
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$45.64mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will China launch a military invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$44.68mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the US government confirm that extraterrestrial life exists before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$42.44mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the United States take sovereignty over Greenland before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$35.71mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?
Happens
92%
price $0.92
Does not happen
8%
price $0.08
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$33.55mResolution: 4 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will Iran's regime fall before 2027?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$27.81mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be President of Russia by 31 December 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$26.27mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) be signed into law in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$24.40mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will OpenSea's token have a fully diluted valuation above $1 billion one day after launch?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$22.62mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will MetaMask's token be worth more than $1 billion one day after launch?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$20.33mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the WHO declare a hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$18.71mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the Fed Change Interest Rates at Its October 2026 Meeting?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$16.74mResolution: 29 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$15.23mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in the 2026 US midterms?
Happens
68%
price $0.68
Does not happen
32%
price $0.32
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$12.45mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least once in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.84mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.54mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$10.02mResolution: 9 December 2026 Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.96mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran's de facto head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
85%
price $0.85
Does not happen
15%
price $0.15
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.90mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
77%
price $0.77
Does not happen
23%
price $0.23
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$6.85mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will GameStop Acquire eBay Before 2027?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$6.77mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Championship?
Happens
98%
price $0.98
Does not happen
2%
price $0.02
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$6.65mActual outcome: No Will the US record at least 10,000 measles cases in 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.53mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by 31 December 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.57mActual outcome: Yes Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through October 2026?
Happens
78%
price $0.78
Does not happen
22%
price $0.22
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.50mResolution: 31 October 2026Will Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin move in 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.31mResolution: 1 January 2027Which team will win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.91mActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
Happens
69%
price $0.69
Does not happen
31%
price $0.31
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.56mResolution: 3 November 2026 Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.04mActual outcome: NoWill California pass a one-time billionaire wealth tax in the November 2026 election?
Happens
22%
price $0.22
Does not happen
78%
price $0.78
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.95mResolution: 4 November 2026Will the US announce the end of its naval blockade on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.94mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy cease to be President of Ukraine by the end of 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.64mResolution: 1 January 2027Will the United States invade Cuba in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.64mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Nicolรกs Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?
Happens
76%
price $0.76
Does not happen
24%
price $0.24
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.63mResolution: 1 January 2027