Will the U.S. have at least 12,500 measles cases in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$359.3kResolution: 1 January 2027
Events
Will the US and Iran hold another senior-level diplomatic meeting by 31 October 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$356.7kResolution: 31 October 2026Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Happens
43%
price $0.43
Does not happen
57%
price $0.57
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$351.6kResolution: 31 December 2026Will OpenAI announce a solution to a Millennium Prize Problem by 31 December 2026?
Happens
16%
price $0.16
Does not happen
84%
price $0.84
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$349.8kActual outcome: NoWill MicroStrategy (Strategy) announce holding 1 million or more Bitcoin by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$345.6kResolution: 1 January 2027Will the US carry out a military strike on Iran before 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$343.0kResolution: 31 October 2026Will the US report at least 5,000 measles cases in 2026?
Happens
98%
price $0.98
Does not happen
2%
price $0.02
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$339.0kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Ethereum's price dip to $2,100 at any point in October 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$337.7kResolution: 1 November 2026Will MetaMask launch its own token by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$336.9kResolution: 1 January 2027Will LA Galaxy win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$333.2kResolution: 1 January 2027Will OpenAI announce it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$332.5kResolution: 1 January 2027Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$332.3kActual outcome: NoWill Unitree Robotics' IPO market capitalization exceed ¥180 billion?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$325.2kResolution: 1 January 2027Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 November 2026?
Happens
59%
price $0.59
Does not happen
41%
price $0.41
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$318.6kResolution: 16 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Tesla and SpaceX Officially Announce a Merger by 31 December 2026?
Happens
19%
price $0.19
Does not happen
81%
price $0.81
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$317.2kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the US government take a stake in Spirit Airlines in 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$310.2kResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Anthropic Release a Fable Model (Version 5.2 or Higher) by 31 October 2026?
Happens
26%
price $0.26
Does not happen
74%
price $0.74
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$307.9kActual outcome: NoWill Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Happens
28%
price $0.28
Does not happen
72%
price $0.72
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$301.0kResolution: 31 December 2026Will a NATO member invoke Article 5 before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$300.9kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will the US and China reach an official tariff agreement by 31 December 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$298.0kResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Happens
53%
price $0.53
Does not happen
47%
price $0.47
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$296.6kResolution: 27 October 2026Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win the League of Legends World Championship 2026?
Happens
73%
price $0.73
Does not happen
27%
price $0.27
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$296.0kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Russia capture all of Lyman by 31 December 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$294.6kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Anthropic release a model called "Mythos" before January 1, 2027?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$289.3kActual outcome: No Will Missouri enact a statewide data center moratorium by 31 December 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$287.0kResolution: 1 January 2027Will the United States announce a ban on diesel exports by 31 October 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$276.6kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Anthropic Have the Best Coding AI Model at the End of 2026?
Happens
76%
price $0.76
Does not happen
24%
price $0.24
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$273.8kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Unitree Robotics' IPO close with a market capitalization above ¥250 billion?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$268.4kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$268.4kActual outcome: No Will Hyperliquid (HYPE) be listed for spot trading on Binance in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$264.2kResolution: 1 January 2027Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East division title?
Happens
45%
price $0.45
Does not happen
55%
price $0.55
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$263.6kResolution: 4 January 2027Will Apple release the iPhone 18 in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$252.1kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Anthropic complete an IPO by 15 December 2026?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$251.5kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Drake be the most-streamed artist on Spotify in the U.S. in 2026?
Happens
85%
price $0.85
Does not happen
15%
price $0.15
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$250.6kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Oklahoma enact a statewide data center moratorium by 30 June 2027?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$248.0kResolution: 1 July 2027- 0 pp
Will China's 2026 GDP growth land in the four-to-five percent band?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$245.2kResolution: 31 January 2027