−1 pp
Will Drake be the most-streamed artist on Spotify in the U.S. in 2026?
Happens
77%
price $0.77
Does not happen
23%
price $0.23
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$191.1kResolution: 31 December 2026
Events
- −10.5 pp
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend of any movie released in 2026?
Happens
51%
price $0.51
Does not happen
49%
price $0.49
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$173.4kResolution: 31 December 2026 - −1 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei Be Seen in Public by the End of 2026?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$169.6kResolution: 31 December 2026 - +0.5 pp
Will Jerome Powell announce his departure or leave as a Federal Reserve Governor before 1 January 2027?
Happens
24%
price $0.24
Does not happen
76%
price $0.76
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$166.6kResolution: 1 January 2027 - −1 pp
Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$140.7kResolution: 31 December 2026 - +1.5 pp
Will the US announce it is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear ceasefire negotiations by 31 August 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$125.9kResolution: 31 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will Bad Bunny be the most-streamed artist on Spotify in 2026?
Happens
78%
price $0.78
Does not happen
22%
price $0.22
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$124.4kResolution: 1 January 2027 - +1 pp
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$121.4kResolution: 13 September 2026 - −1 pp
Will OpenAI officially announce an IPO before January 1, 2027?
Happens
26%
price $0.26
Does not happen
74%
price $0.74
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$115.3kResolution: 1 January 2027 - +7.5 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market capitalization at the end of August 2026?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$109.4kResolution: 31 August 2026 - +4 pp
Will the Fed Change Interest Rates at Its October 2026 Meeting?
Happens
70%
price $0.70
Does not happen
30%
price $0.30
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$92.5kResolution: 28 October 2026 - −1 pp
Will Tesla and SpaceX Officially Announce a Merger by 31 December 2026?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$87.4kResolution: 31 December 2026 - −0.5 pp
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on LMArena at the end of August 2026?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$72.3kResolution: 31 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another round of formal diplomatic talks by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$51.3kResolution: 30 September 2026 - 0 pp
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's US Open?
Happens
28%
price $0.28
Does not happen
72%
price $0.72
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$43.5kResolution: 13 September 2026 - 0 pp
Which club will win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$30.9kResolution: 30 May 2027