Culture
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top-grossing film of 2026 at the US box office?
chance the market gives this event โ not your chance of being right
- Yes โ The event happens
- 86%
- No โ The event does not happen
- 14%
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In short
The market treats this as very unlikely. The main reason is not doubt about Spider-Man's drawing power but arithmetic: the contract is settled on 2026 calendar-year domestic gross only, and traders currently price at least one rival as holding a lead that a film opening at the end of July is not expected to overhaul. A very large opening weekend followed by unusually slow week-to-week declines through the autumn is what would force a repricing.
How the contract works
Each contract in this event covers one film and settles at $1 if that film ends up with the highest 2026 domestic calendar-year gross, and at nothing if it does not. The price is simply what buyers and sellers currently agree the chance is, expressed as a number between zero and one: a contract trading at 0.30 would mean the market thinks the outcome happens about three times in ten. Settlement follows Box Office Mojo's final 2026 annual figures for the United States and Canada, covering revenue earned between 1 January and 31 December 2026 only. Because several films are priced separately inside the same event, their prices should roughly sum to one. A position does not have to be held to the end of the year; it can usually be sold before settlement at whatever the price is at that moment.
Yes86%
No14%
Probability
How the price has moved
The recorded series for this event begins on 29 July 2026 at a level implying near-certainty and has ranged from 18% to 100% over 1,246 observations, but that series aggregates the separate contracts written on each contending film, so the extremes describe the event's structure rather than a change of heart about Spider-Man specifically. What matters for this page is where the film-specific price now sits: the consensus across venues is 3%, with most individual sub-markets at or near zero and the widest recorded gap between quotes in the event reaching 82.3 percentage points. That configuration โ one heavily backed favourite, a cluster of names in the low single digits โ has been stable enough that no single publicly reported trigger is needed to explain it. The obvious catalyst has not happened yet: the film opens on 31 July 2026, two days after this page's reference date, and the first weekend numbers are the first genuinely new information the market will get.
Context
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is the fourth Tom Holland-led Spider-Man film produced by Sony in partnership with Marvel Studios, directed by Destin Daniel Cretton. It arrives on 31 July 2026, in the middle of the North American summer season, which gives it a full five months of release inside the 2026 calendar year.
The field it has to beat is unusually crowded. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie opened in April 2026, Pixar's Toy Story 5 in June, and Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey in July, so three of the year's biggest titles already have real numbers on the board. Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Messiah are both scheduled for December 2026, and Wicked: For Good carries over receipts from its late-2025 release into the early weeks of the 2026 calendar year.
That calendar detail is the heart of the question. The market resolves on Box Office Mojo's 2026 year page using calendar-year grosses, not the total lifetime gross of each film. A December release banks only two or three weeks of ticket sales before 31 December, no matter how large it eventually becomes worldwide. A summer release keeps almost its entire run inside the year. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits on the favourable side of that rule, which makes the low price it currently carries a statement about the size of the lead it has to close, not about the calendar.
Analysis
The consensus across venues sits at 3%, which places Spider-Man: Brand New Day among the outside contenders rather than the favourites. That is a striking figure for a franchise entry opening in the peak summer slot, and it tells you the market believes the 2026 domestic race is already substantially decided by films in release. Spider-Man: No Way Home was the top domestic film of 2021 with roughly $814 million, so the market is not pricing a general scepticism about the character โ it is pricing a specific gap.
The distribution of prices across the event's individual film contracts makes the point. Most of the sub-markets listed sit at or near zero, with one at 11% and a couple at 1% to 2%, while the recorded spread between the highest and lowest quote in the event has been as wide as 82.3 percentage points. A structure like that describes one dominant favourite and a long tail of also-rans. Aggregate volume across the venues is $15,891,226, which for a culture market is substantial and means the near-zero prices are not the product of a thin, neglected order book.
The recorded price history for this contract begins on 29 July 2026 and opened at a level implying near-certainty, with observations since ranging from 18% to 100% across 1,246 recorded points. That series spans the event's sub-markets rather than one film's clean path, so the 100% reading should be read as the aggregate opening level of the event rather than as a claim that traders once thought Spider-Man was a lock. What is unambiguous is the current state: the film-specific price is in the low single digits.
Against that, the calendar rule cuts in Spider-Man's favour and is worth weighing honestly. Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Messiah are scheduled for December 2026, which means each accrues only a fortnight or so of receipts before the 31 December cut-off, however large their eventual lifetime totals. Whatever the market's favourite is, it is more plausibly a spring or summer release with a completed run than a Christmas opening. For Spider-Man to win, the gap has to be closable within five months of release, and the market's answer is that it probably is not.
What moves the probability
Opening weekend size
The single largest input is the 31 July to 2 August 2026 debut. A domestic opening in the top tier of franchise launches would reprice this contract within days, because it sets the ceiling for everything that follows. An opening in line with a routine sequel would confirm the current low price and likely push it lower.
Calendar-year accounting
Only revenue earned between 1 January and 31 December 2026 counts. That structurally suppresses the December releases, Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Messiah, which keep only their first two or three weeks inside the year. It is the strongest single argument in Spider-Man's favour and the reason the price is not lower still.
The head start held by earlier 2026 releases
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie in April, Toy Story 5 in June and The Odyssey in July have already banked large parts of their runs. Any of them with a completed domestic total near the top of the year sets a target Spider-Man must clear from a standing start. This is the driver pushing the probability toward zero.
Autumn hold and repeat viewing
Superhero films typically drop sharply after opening weekend. A slow decline through August and September, plus a Thanksgiving-period bump, would be the mechanism by which a summer film overhauls a leader. Historically that pattern is rare, which is why the market discounts it.
Screen competition in the second half
Premium-format screens are finite. If the December tentpoles and the autumn slate crowd Spider-Man out of IMAX and large-format runs, its long tail thins. This is a modest but real downward pressure on the outcome.
The case for
- An opening weekend at the top end of Spider-Man precedent โ the franchise produced the highest-grossing domestic film of 2021 โ would put the film within range of any leader by the end of August 2026.
- Because settlement counts only receipts earned inside 2026, the December releases Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Messiah bank barely a fortnight each before 31 December, so the practical field narrows to films already out.
- A 31 July release leaves five months of playtime inside the settlement year, including the Labor Day and Thanksgiving corridors, which is the longest in-year run available to any major 2026 tentpole after early summer.
- If the year's current leader finishes with a domestic total that is strong but not exceptional, the bar Spider-Man has to clear is lower than the market's near-zero pricing implies.
The case against
- Traders with $15,891,226 of aggregate volume across the event's markets have concentrated almost all of it in a single favourite, and prices in the low single digits for Spider-Man reflect a lead they judge already close to insurmountable.
- Superhero sequels front-load their grosses, so the multiple needed to overhaul a leader over five months is one this genre rarely delivers.
- Three of the year's biggest titles โ The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Toy Story 5 and The Odyssey โ were in release before Spider-Man opened, and family and event-format films typically hold screens longer than a summer franchise entry.
- Nothing about the 2026 slate suggests a shortage of competition for screens in the autumn, which compresses exactly the long tail Spider-Man would need.
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Open on Polymarket
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Venues (1)
- PolymarketRecommendedYes86%0.86
- Volume (24h)
- US$8.1k
- Fee
- 5%
Probability
- Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?86%
- Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?10%
- Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?2%
- Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?1%
- Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?0%
- Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?0%
- Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?0%
- The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?0%
- For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?0%
- Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?0%
- Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?0%
- Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?0%
Resolution rules
The determining source is Box Office Mojo's 2026 annual page in its calendar-grosses view. The market resolves YES if Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds the highest figure in the Gross column for domestic (United States and Canada) revenue earned between 1 January and 31 December 2026, once that data is final. Money earned in any other calendar year is excluded, which is why a December 2026 release contributes only its first weeks. An exact tie goes to the film first in alphabetical order. If Box Office Mojo's final data is not published by 7 January 2027, another credible box office source is substituted. Rival films including Avengers: Doomsday, The Odyssey, Toy Story 5, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Dune: Messiah and Wicked: For Good are priced as separate contracts within the same event, so their prices should roughly sum to one.
Calculation methodology โLocal context
This market is settled entirely on United States and Canada ticket sales, so it is a direct read on what North American audiences actually turned up for in 2026 โ not on global performance, where a different film can easily finish first. For readers in the UK, Australia and India, that distinction matters: a title can dominate international markets and still lose the domestic calendar-year ranking that decides this contract.
The outcome also feeds the year-end narrative around the companies involved โ Sony and Disney on the studio side, and the cinema chains whose autumn programming depends on how long a summer tentpole holds screens. Beyond that, the connection for most readers is cultural rather than financial: the annual domestic number one is the figure that gets quoted for the next decade whenever the 2026 slate is discussed.
What to watch
The domestic opening weekend of 31 July to 2 August 2026, and the second-weekend drop the following Monday, are the two figures that matter most; together they define the film's realistic ceiling. After that, watch the Labor Day weekend hold in early September and the Thanksgiving-period figures in late November, the two moments when a summer release can add unexpected ground. On the rival side, the release of Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Messiah in December 2026 is largely irrelevant to the calendar-gross ranking beyond their first fortnight, but the final domestic totals for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Toy Story 5 and The Odyssey will fix the target. Settlement follows Box Office Mojo's final 2026 annual data, expected in the first week of January 2027.
Common questions
- What exactly settles this market, and when?
- Box Office Mojo's 2026 year page, using the calendar-grosses view, is the source. The contract resolves YES if Spider-Man: Brand New Day has the highest figure in the Gross column once data through 31 December 2026 is final, which normally happens in the first days of January 2027. If final data is not available by 7 January 2027, another credible source is used instead.
- Does worldwide box office count?
- No. Only domestic gross โ the United States and Canada โ is used. A film can be the biggest release of 2026 globally and still lose this market if another title sold more tickets in North America during the calendar year.
- What does the current price mean in plain terms?
- It is the market's estimate of the chance the outcome happens, expressed as a price between zero and one, and it is also what a contract costs. Each contract pays $1 if the film finishes as the top 2026 domestic earner and nothing otherwise. A price in the low single digits means the market thinks the outcome is a long shot rather than impossible.
- Why is the price so low when Spider-Man films are usually huge?
- Because the settlement counts only revenue earned inside 2026, and three major titles โ The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Toy Story 5 and The Odyssey โ were already in release before Spider-Man opened on 31 July 2026. The market's judgement is that the leader's in-year total is high enough that a film with five months of playtime is unlikely to catch it, not that the film will underperform.
- What happens if two films finish level?
- An exact tie in the final Box Office Mojo figures is broken in favour of the film that comes first alphabetically. Given that grosses are reported to the dollar, an exact tie is a remote scenario, but the rule removes any ambiguity.
- Can a position be closed before the end of the year?
- Yes. Contracts can normally be sold at the prevailing price at any point before settlement, so a holder does not have to wait for the final 2026 data. The price moves with new information โ most obviously weekend box office reports.
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86%
Yes / No