0 pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by 30 September 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.22mResolution: 30 September 2026
Events
Will China and Japan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.16mResolution: 31 December 2026- −0.1 pp
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Happens
98%
price $0.98
Does not happen
2%
price $0.02
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.11mResolution: 13 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will Netflix release a new episode of Stranger Things by 31 December 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.10mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Mercedes win the 2026 Formula 1 Constructors' Championship?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.03mResolution: 6 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market cap at the end of 2026?
Happens
57%
price $0.57
Does not happen
43%
price $0.43
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$915.4kResolution: 31 December 2026 - −6.5 pp
Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?
Happens
34%
price $0.34
Does not happen
66%
price $0.66
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$817.0kResolution: 31 August 2026 Will the US formally declare war on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$762.4kResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$709.0kResolution: 31 December 2026 - −2 pp
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court by 31 December 2026?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$690.9kResolution: 31 December 2026 - +10 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
95%
price $0.95
Does not happen
5%
price $0.05
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$658.8kResolution: 4 August 2026 - Hot−2.5 pp
Will Ethereum's price reach $2,000 at any point in July 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$627.3kResolution: 1 August 2026 Will SpaceX have the highest market cap of any company that IPOs in 2026?
Happens
90%
price $0.90
Does not happen
10%
price $0.10
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$587.1kResolution: 31 December 2026- +7.5 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Happens
61%
price $0.61
Does not happen
39%
price $0.39
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$577.5kResolution: 31 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 Premier League title?
Happens
30%
price $0.30
Does not happen
70%
price $0.70
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$497.6kResolution: 30 May 2027 Will Hyperliquid (HYPE) reach $100 by 31 December 2026?
Happens
21%
price $0.21
Does not happen
79%
price $0.79
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$491.6kResolution: 1 January 2027- +3 pp
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top-grossing film of 2026 at the US box office?
Happens
86%
price $0.86
Does not happen
14%
price $0.14
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$482.3kResolution: 31 December 2026 - +8 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 August 2026?
Happens
74%
price $0.74
Does not happen
26%
price $0.26
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$469.9kResolution: 15 August 2026 Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by 31 December 2026?
Happens
53%
price $0.53
Does not happen
47%
price $0.47
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$460.6kResolution: 31 December 2026- +0.5 pp
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$457.1kResolution: 31 December 2026 - +2.5 pp
Will Russia capture the Kostyantynivka railroad station by 30 September 2026?
Happens
88%
price $0.88
Does not happen
12%
price $0.12
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$439.7kResolution: 30 September 2026 - Hot0 pp
Did XRP's price reach $3.00 at any point in July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$421.4kResolution: 1 August 2026 - −0.5 pp
Will Iran formally announce its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the United States by 15 August 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$414.2kResolution: 15 August 2026 - −0.3 pp
Will Iran invade Kuwait by 31 August 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$399.0kResolution: 31 August 2026 - +3 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$369.4kResolution: 31 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Happens
22%
price $0.22
Does not happen
78%
price $0.78
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$367.9kResolution: 1 July 2027 - 0 pp
Will the US Announce a Halt to Its Military Operations Against Iran by 15 August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$336.1kResolution: 15 August 2026 Will Darline Graham Nordone win the Republican nomination for South Carolina's 2026 special U.S. Senate election?
Happens
59%
price $0.59
Does not happen
41%
price $0.41
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$289.1kResolution: 11 August 2026- −10.5 pp
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend of any movie released in 2026?
Happens
51%
price $0.51
Does not happen
49%
price $0.49
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$173.4kResolution: 31 December 2026 - −1 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei Be Seen in Public by the End of 2026?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$169.6kResolution: 31 December 2026 - −1 pp
Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$140.7kResolution: 31 December 2026 - +1.5 pp
Will the US announce it is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear ceasefire negotiations by 31 August 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$125.9kResolution: 31 August 2026 - +1 pp
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$121.4kResolution: 13 September 2026 - +7.5 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market capitalization at the end of August 2026?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$109.4kResolution: 31 August 2026 - +4 pp
Will the Fed Change Interest Rates at Its October 2026 Meeting?
Happens
70%
price $0.70
Does not happen
30%
price $0.30
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$92.5kResolution: 28 October 2026 - −1 pp
Will Tesla and SpaceX Officially Announce a Merger by 31 December 2026?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$87.4kResolution: 31 December 2026