+0.5 pp
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least once in 2026?
Happens
15%
price $0.15
Does not happen
85%
price $0.85
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$8.72mResolution: 31 December 2026
Events
- +3.9 pp
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in 2026?
Happens
66%
price $0.66
Does not happen
34%
price $0.34
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$6.04mResolution: 9 December 2026 - Hot+11.2 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market cap on 31 July 2026?
Happens
62%
price $0.62
Does not happen
38%
price $0.38
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.88mResolution: 31 July 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve leave interest rates unchanged after its September 2026 meeting?
Happens
45%
price $0.45
Does not happen
55%
price $0.55
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.75mResolution: 16 September 2026 - 0 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market cap at the end of 2026?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$904.6kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will SpaceX have the highest market cap of any company that IPOs in 2026?
Happens
89%
price $0.89
Does not happen
11%
price $0.11
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$586.6kResolution: 31 December 2026- +0.5 pp
Will Jerome Powell announce his departure or leave as a Federal Reserve Governor before 1 January 2027?
Happens
25%
price $0.25
Does not happen
75%
price $0.75
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$166.6kResolution: 1 January 2027