0 pp
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be President of Russia by 31 December 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$26.73mActual outcome: No
Events
- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$22.14mActual outcome: No Will the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 30 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.59mActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.30mActual outcome: No Will the US-Iran ceasefire continue through 22 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.86mActual outcome: YesWill the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 15 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.67mActual outcome: NoWill the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.34mActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.33mActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
16%
price $0.16
Does not happen
84%
price $0.84
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.08mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.53mActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.50mActual outcome: No Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.45mActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 9 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.36mActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will There Be a Direct Military Clash Between NATO and Russia by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.12mActual outcome: No Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.12mActual outcome: YesWill the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 12 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.99mActual outcome: YesWill the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 24 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.88mActual outcome: YesWill the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be effectively closed to shipping by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.67mActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.54mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Iran formally announce its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the United States by 15 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.53mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.51mActual outcome: No Will the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 22 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.48mActual outcome: NoWill the Israel-Iran ceasefire still be in effect on 21 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.47mActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by 31 December 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.09mActual outcome: No Will Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline resume operations by 30 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.02mActual outcome: NoWill the Israel-Iran ceasefire still be holding on 15 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$955.1kActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will Iran invade Kuwait by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$847.8kActual outcome: No Will Iran Fully Close Its Airspace by 31 December 2026?
Happens
34%
price $0.34
Does not happen
66%
price $0.66
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$748.8kActual outcome: NoWill the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 25 September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$734.2kActual outcome: YesWill the US-Iran ceasefire continue through 18 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$656.6kActual outcome: YesWill Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline resume operations by 31 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$643.2kActual outcome: NoWill Israel withdraw its ground forces from beyond the Litani River in Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$534.3kActual outcome: NoWill the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 7 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$524.0kActual outcome: YesWill Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks by 31 October 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$501.9kActual outcome: NoWill Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks by 31 December 2026?
Happens
87%
price $0.87
Does not happen
13%
price $0.13
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$501.9kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will the US announce it is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear ceasefire negotiations by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$472.6kActual outcome: No