Events

Filters (2)

19 events

0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$22.14mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be President of Russia by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$21.15mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.30mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.33mActual outcome: Yes
0 pp
Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.62mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.53mActual outcome: Yes
0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 9 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.36mActual outcome: Yes
0 pp
Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.24mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will There Be a Direct Military Clash Between NATO and Russia by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.12mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.54mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Iran formally announce its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the United States by 15 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.53mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.51mActual outcome: No
Will the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 22 August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.48mActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by 31 December 2026?
Happens
39%
price $0.39
Does not happen
61%
price $0.61
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$892.3kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Iran invade Kuwait by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$847.8kActual outcome: No
Will Israel withdraw its ground forces from beyond the Litani River in Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$510.7kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will the US announce it is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear ceasefire negotiations by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$472.6kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railroad station by 31 July 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$290.5kActual outcome: No
0 pp
Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$225.8kActual outcome: No

Events

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be President of Russia by 31 December 2026?

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 2026?

Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?

Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?

Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 August 2026?

Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 9 August 2026?

Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?

Will There Be a Direct Military Clash Between NATO and Russia by 31 August 2026?

Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?

Will Iran formally announce its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the United States by 15 August 2026?

Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?

Will the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 22 August 2026?

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by 31 December 2026?

Will Iran invade Kuwait by 31 August 2026?

Will Israel withdraw its ground forces from beyond the Litani River in Lebanon by 31 December 2026?

Will the US announce it is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear ceasefire negotiations by 31 August 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railroad station by 31 July 2026?

Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?