Will Xi Jinping Visit the United States by 24 September 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$385.3kResolution: 24 September 2026
Events
Will the US and Iran hold another senior-level diplomatic meeting by 31 October 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$356.7kResolution: 31 October 2026Will the US carry out a military strike on Iran before 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$343.0kResolution: 31 October 2026- 0 pp
Will the US Announce a Halt to Its Military Operations Against Iran by 15 August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$336.1kResolution: 15 August 2026 Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 November 2026?
Happens
59%
price $0.59
Does not happen
41%
price $0.41
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$318.5kResolution: 16 November 2026Will a NATO member invoke Article 5 before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$300.9kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will the US and China reach an official tariff agreement by 31 December 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$298.0kResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Russia capture all of Lyman by 31 December 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$294.6kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railroad station by 31 July 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$290.5kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$268.4kActual outcome: No Will Trump meet Putin in person by the end of 2026?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$236.3kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Houthi Forces Enter Aden, Yemen by the End of 2026?
Happens
24%
price $0.24
Does not happen
76%
price $0.76
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$226.5kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Iran carry out a military strike on Ukraine by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$184.7kResolution: 30 September 2026 Will Donald Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in person in 2026?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$176.6kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by 30 June 2027?
Happens
55%
price $0.55
Does not happen
45%
price $0.45
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$174.3kResolution: 1 July 2027Will Russia announce a new forced military mobilization by the end of 2026?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$163.7kActual outcome: NoWill Israeli airspace be closed by 31 December 2026?
Happens
27%
price $0.27
Does not happen
73%
price $0.73
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$155.8kResolution: 1 January 2027Will the US carry out military strikes on 8 or more countries in 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$131.2kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Russia capture any territory of Kharkiv city by 31 December 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$125.7kResolution: 1 January 2027Will CATL be removed from the Pentagon's Chinese military companies list by mid-2027?
Happens
20%
price $0.20
Does not happen
80%
price $0.80
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$125.3kResolution: 1 July 2027Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$116.0kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$109.4kActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will the US Send a Warship Through the Strait of Hormuz by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$105.8kResolution: 31 July 2026 Will Russia capture Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, by 31 December 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$96.4kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by the end of 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$88.3kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Delcy Rodríguez Be Venezuela's De Facto Leader By The End Of 2026?
Happens
89%
price $0.89
Does not happen
11%
price $0.11
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$84.9kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by 30 November 2026?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$80.9kResolution: 1 December 2026Will the US sign a new trade deal with India before 2027?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$68.9kResolution: 31 December 2026