How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 if a qualifying transit is confirmed before 11:59 PM ET on 31 July 2026, and at nothing if it is not. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers currently think the chance of that confirmation is: a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would imply the market sees roughly a three-in-ten chance, not a certainty either way. The settlement date is fixed at 31 July 2026, and what gets settled is narrowly defined, a confirmed crossing of the narrowest point of the strait, not general regional naval activity. A position bought now can typically be sold again before settlement, at whatever price the market has moved to by then.
Yes1%
No99%
Probability
How the price has moved
The market opened on 29 July 2026 at 99%, near certainty, and traded in a range of 96% to 100% shortly after. Since then the consensus across venues has fallen to 1%, a move consistent with the market recognizing that the strict settlement condition, a confirmed transit of the narrowest point of the strait specifically, had not been met as the deadline neared. Over the last 24 hours the price has not moved, holding flat at the current level, which points to a market that has already absorbed the relevant information and settled on its current view rather than one still reacting to news.
Analysis
Context
The Strait of Hormuz sits between Iran and Oman and is the only sea route out of the Persian Gulf, carrying roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil. The US Navy's Fifth Fleet, headquartered in Bahrain, patrols the wider Gulf and Gulf of Oman routinely, and warships pass near or through the strait as a normal part of regional operations, especially during periods of tension with Iran.
This market does not ask whether a US ship operates somewhere in the Gulf. It asks specifically whether a US Navy vessel, including support or cargo ships but not civilian traffic, crosses the narrowest section of the strait itself before the deadline, and whether that crossing is confirmed by the Pentagon, the Navy, or an overwhelming consensus of wire reporting from outlets such as Reuters and AP. Passage that stays within the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, or the Arabian Sea without crossing that specific chokepoint does not count.
Related markets ask the identical question for the United Kingdom, France, and the Netherlands, framing this as part of a broader watch on Western naval posture near Iran rather than a US-only story.
The market opened on 29 July 2026 at 99%, essentially treating a Hormuz transit as close to certain, consistent with the base rate that US warships operate in and around the strait frequently. Since then it has traded in a range of 96% to 100% at points, but the consensus across venues has since fallen to 1%, a near-total reversal in the space of roughly a day. Over the most recent 24 hours the price has not moved at all, sitting flat, which suggests the repricing already happened and the market has settled into its current view rather than being in active flux.
The gap between the initial 99% and the current 1% is best explained by the resolution rule itself rather than by any change in Iran-related tensions. General US naval presence in the Persian Gulf or Gulf of Oman is common and would have justified pricing near certainty if that were the bar. But the rule requires a transit of the narrowest portion of the strait specifically, and requires that this specific fact be confirmed by the Department of Defense, the Navy, or a strong consensus among wire services. That is a much narrower and harder-to-verify claim than routine Fifth Fleet operations, and reporting rarely specifies the exact geographic point of a transit. As the 31 July deadline approached without that specific confirmation appearing, the price appears to have collapsed toward the level implying the market now expects the question to resolve No absent a late, explicit statement.
Volume across venues stands at $99,122, all of it on a single venue, Polymarket, over 116 recorded price observations since the market opened on 29 July. A single-venue market with a short history and a narrow settlement window is thinner and more sensitive to individual reports than a market that has traded for months across multiple venues, which is worth keeping in mind when reading the flat 24-hour change as a signal of settled opinion rather than the absence of new information.
What moves the probability
Narrow settlement bar
The rule requires a transit of the narrowest point of the strait, not mere presence in the Persian Gulf or Gulf of Oman. This raises the bar well above routine Fifth Fleet activity and pushes the price down whenever that specific fact is not separately confirmed.
One day left
The market closes on 31 July 2026, roughly a day after this market opened at its initial reading. A short window sharply limits the chance that a qualifying, confirmed transit still occurs and gets reported before the cutoff.
Wire-service confirmation required
Resolution needs Pentagon or Navy statements, or a strong Reuters/AP-led reporting consensus, on the exact transit point. Reporting on Gulf operations rarely specifies this level of geographic detail, which works against a Yes resolution even if a transit in fact occurred.
Routine Fifth Fleet operations
US warships operate in the region constantly as a baseline fact, which explains the market's initial 99% reading. This baseline pulls the other way from the strict settlement rule, and the tension between the two explains the wide range seen early in the market's history.
Thin, single-venue market
All $99,122 in volume sits on one venue, Polymarket, with 116 price points recorded. Thin, single-source markets can move sharply on limited information, so the current 1% reading should be read as one venue's live estimate rather than a broad consensus.
The case for
- A US Navy vessel, including a support or cargo ship, must cross the narrowest point of the strait between Iran and Oman before 11:59 PM ET on 31 July 2026.
- The Department of Defense, the Navy, or an overwhelming consensus of Reuters, AP, or similar wire reporting must confirm that specific crossing, not just general Gulf presence.
- Given routine Fifth Fleet operations in the region, a qualifying transit occurring in this window is plausible even if it has not yet been separately confirmed.
- A late Pentagon or Navy statement in the final hours before the deadline could still shift the outcome to Yes.
The case against
- No confirmed, wire-reported transit of the narrowest point of the strait appears to have moved the price as of the last recorded observation.
- The window remaining before the 31 July 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline is short, roughly a day from the market's most recent reading.
- Reporting on Gulf naval activity often does not specify the exact geographic point of a transit, which makes the strict resolution condition hard to satisfy even if a ship did pass through.
- A transit confined to the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without crossing the narrowest chokepoint, does not qualify and would not change the outcome.
What to watch
The remaining window runs to 11:59 PM ET on 31 July 2026. Any Department of Defense or Navy statement naming a specific transit of the strait's narrowest point, or matching reporting from Reuters, AP, or other major wires, would be the trigger for a Yes resolution. Given the short time left, the practical question is whether such a statement or report appears in the final hours rather than whether US ships are operating in the wider Gulf, which is already routine and not in dispute.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
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