Will the US formally withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.29mResolution: 31 December 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will China and Japan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.29mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.26mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before July 2027?
Happens
49%
price $0.49
Does not happen
51%
price $0.51
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.18mResolution: 1 July 2027 - 0 pp
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.01mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will the US announce the end of its naval blockade on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
73%
price $0.73
Does not happen
27%
price $0.27
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$909.2kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
81%
price $0.81
Does not happen
19%
price $0.19
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$828.0kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the US formally declare war on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$802.2kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Iran invade Kuwait by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$795.1kActual outcome: No Will Xi Jinping visit the United States before 2027?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$734.2kResolution: 31 December 2026Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Happens
92%
price $0.92
Does not happen
8%
price $0.08
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$709.3kResolution: 31 August 2026- 0 pp
Will Russia capture the Kostyantynivka railroad station by 30 September 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$709.2kResolution: 30 September 2026 - 0 pp
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by 31 December 2026?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$672.0kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Israel and Iran sign a permanent peace deal by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$625.6kResolution: 31 July 2026 - 0 pp
Will the US officially announce a halt to its offensive military operations against Iran by 31 August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$530.5kResolution: 31 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will 30 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz in a single day before 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$513.2kResolution: 31 July 2026 Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 15 September 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$500.6kResolution: 15 September 2026Will NATO forces shoot down another Russian drone by 31 August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$485.6kResolution: 31 August 2026Will there be a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$453.4kResolution: 31 December 2026Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 September 2026?
Happens
75%
price $0.75
Does not happen
25%
price $0.25
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$430.4kResolution: 30 September 2026Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize diplomatic relations before 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$429.1kResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will the US announce it is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear ceasefire negotiations by 31 August 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$376.8kActual outcome: No Will Iran formally withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$364.4kResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will the US Announce a Halt to Its Military Operations Against Iran by 15 August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$336.1kResolution: 15 August 2026 Will there be a military clash between Israel and Turkey before 2027?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$320.9kResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railroad station by 31 July 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$290.5kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$198.0kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Iran carry out a military strike on Ukraine by 30 September 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$152.7kResolution: 30 September 2026 Will Iran Fully Close Its Airspace by 31 December 2026?
Happens
26%
price $0.26
Does not happen
74%
price $0.74
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$151.7kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will the US Send a Warship Through the Strait of Hormuz by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$105.8kResolution: 31 July 2026 Will the US carry out a military strike on Iran before 31 October 2026?
Happens
67%
price $0.67
Does not happen
33%
price $0.33
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$104.8kResolution: 31 October 2026Will Donald Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in person in 2026?
Happens
46%
price $0.46
Does not happen
54%
price $0.54
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$85.7kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Delcy Rodríguez Be Venezuela's De Facto Leader By The End Of 2026?
Happens
89%
price $0.89
Does not happen
11%
price $0.11
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$84.9kResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another round of formal diplomatic talks by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$71.4kResolution: 30 September 2026 Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by the end of 2026?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$59.7kResolution: 31 December 2026