0 pp
Will the United States launch a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?
Happens
19%
price $0.19
Does not happen
81%
price $0.81
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$75.75mResolution: 1 January 2027
Events
- 0 pp
Will China launch a military invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$45.12mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the United States take sovereignty over Greenland before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$35.86mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Iran's regime fall before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$28.25mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$16.48mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.56mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through October 2026?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.52mResolution: 31 October 2026- 0 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran's de facto head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
86%
price $0.86
Does not happen
14%
price $0.14
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.96mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will the US announce the end of its naval blockade on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
40%
price $0.40
Does not happen
60%
price $0.60
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.33mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic return to normal by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.98mResolution: 1 November 2026Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 October 2026?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.89mResolution: 31 October 2026- 0 pp
Will Nicolรกs Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?
Happens
81%
price $0.81
Does not happen
19%
price $0.19
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.79mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy cease to be President of Ukraine by the end of 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.71mResolution: 1 January 2027Will the United States invade Cuba in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.68mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.51mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will China and Taiwan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.50mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Ukraine recapture any territory in Crimea by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.42mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.91mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.62mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by 31 October 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.62mResolution: 1 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railway station by the end of 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.28mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.16mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Iran publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by 31 December 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.00mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi become Iran's head of state or government in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.98mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Cuba's Communist government fall in 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.83mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Hamas officially agree to disarm in Gaza by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.75mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will the US buy at least part of Greenland before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.68mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will the US-Iran ceasefire continue through the 2026 US midterm elections?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.51mResolution: 4 November 2026Will there be a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.43mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will China and Japan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.43mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will the US formally withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.35mResolution: 31 December 2026Will Iran Lose Control of Kharg Island by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.34mResolution: 1 November 2026Will the US and Iran sign a final nuclear deal by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.34mResolution: 1 November 2026Will the US Conduct a Military Strike on Colombian Territory by 31 December 2026?
Happens
21%
price $0.21
Does not happen
79%
price $0.79
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.20mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Xi Jinping visit the United States before 2027?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.13mResolution: 31 December 2026Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by 30 November 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.08mResolution: 1 December 2026