Events

Filters (2)

StatusActive Resolved

CategoryAll Politics Economy Crypto World Sport Culture Tech Other

HorizonAll 21d 90d 365d

VenueAll Polymarket Kalshi Predict.fun Binance Wallet Hyperliquid

SortBy volume By liquidity By probability By resolution date Newest first

13 events

−0.5 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$6.34mResolution: 31 August 2026
Open Kalshi site
0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.25mResolution: 1 August 2026
Open Kalshi site
−1 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.33mResolution: 1 October 2026
Open Kalshi site
+0.1 pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by 30 September 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.22mResolution: 30 September 2026
Open on Polymarket
−5 pp
Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$814.1kResolution: 31 August 2026
Open on Polymarket
Hot
Will Israel and Iran sign a permanent peace deal by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$619.4kResolution: 31 July 2026
Open on Polymarket
+8 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Happens
59%
price $0.59
Does not happen
41%
price $0.41
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$575.9kResolution: 31 August 2026
Open on Polymarket
Hot−0.3 pp
Will 30 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz in a single day before 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$494.4kResolution: 31 July 2026
Open on Polymarket
−0.5 pp
Will Iran formally announce its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the United States by 15 August 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$413.2kResolution: 15 August 2026
Open on Polymarket
−0.3 pp
Will Iran invade Kuwait by 31 August 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$398.9kResolution: 31 August 2026
Open on Polymarket
+3 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$361.3kResolution: 31 August 2026
Open on Polymarket
+1.5 pp
Will the US announce it is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear ceasefire negotiations by 31 August 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$125.9kResolution: 31 August 2026
Open on Polymarket
Hot+0.4 pp
Will the US Send a Warship Through the Strait of Hormuz by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$99.1kResolution: 31 July 2026
Open on Polymarket