0 pp
Will the United States launch a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$59.48mResolution: 31 December 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will China launch a military invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$40.02mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the United States take sovereignty over Greenland before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$35.35mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Who will be Israel's next prime minister after the 2026 election?
Happens
58%
price $0.58
Does not happen
42%
price $0.42
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$32.97mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Iran's regime fall before 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$24.87mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$19.94mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be President of Russia by 31 December 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$19.64mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$12.61mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.08mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.56mResolution: 10 October 2026- 0 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran's de facto head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
82%
price $0.82
Does not happen
18%
price $0.18
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.13mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will China and Taiwan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.25mResolution: 31 December 2026Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy cease to be President of Ukraine by the end of 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.08mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Nicolรกs Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?
Happens
86%
price $0.86
Does not happen
14%
price $0.14
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.78mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Ukraine recapture any territory in Crimea by 31 December 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.65mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.51mResolution: 31 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railway station by the end of 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.28mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.22mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
26%
price $0.26
Does not happen
74%
price $0.74
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.19mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
22%
price $0.22
Does not happen
78%
price $0.78
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.16mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.15mResolution: 1 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.13mActual outcome: No Will China invade Taiwan by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.01mResolution: 30 September 2026- 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi become Iran's head of state or government in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.82mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will There Be a Direct Military Clash Between NATO and Russia by 31 August 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.78mResolution: 1 September 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.73mResolution: 30 September 2026 - 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.59mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Hamas officially agree to disarm in Gaza by 31 December 2026?
Happens
28%
price $0.28
Does not happen
72%
price $0.72
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.53mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will the US buy at least part of Greenland before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.49mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 30 September 2026?
Happens
38%
price $0.38
Does not happen
62%
price $0.62
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.37mResolution: 1 October 2026- 0 pp
Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.33mActual outcome: No Will the US formally withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.29mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will China and Japan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.29mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.26mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before July 2027?
Happens
49%
price $0.49
Does not happen
51%
price $0.51
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.18mResolution: 1 July 2027 - 0 pp
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.01mResolution: 1 January 2027